Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets 02/15/2023 NBA Preview and Prediction

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night in a battle between the Top 6 teams in the Western Conference.

Dallas is 31-28 SU on the season and they are in 2nd place in the Southwest Division team standings, 4.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavericks are also 6th in the Western Conference team standings and they are just two games behind the 3rd-seeded Sacramento Kings.

Denver is the top team in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 40-18 SU on the season and they are 10 games ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Northwest Division team standings. Denver currently has a 5 game lead over the Grizzlies in the West team standings.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs dropped their last two games, their first two with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving playing together. Dallas was the biggest winner of the trade deadline when they acquired Irving in a blockbuster deal with the Brooklyn Nets. The Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.

Doncic leads the Mavs in scoring at 33.2 points per game. He is also the team leader with 8.9 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game. Meanwhile, Irving has averaged 28.2 PPG since arriving in Dallas. Christian Wood is also having a fine season at 17.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Tim Hardaway Jr. is putting up 13. 7 points per game this season.

Dallas is scoring an average of 113.1 points per game this season. The Mavericks are also grabbing 42.7 boards per contest while dishing off 22.3 assists per game. Wood and Reggie Bullock are listed as day-to-day while Maxi Kleber is out.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Denver has taken a 5 game lead in the Western Conference and they are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. However, Denver has played without Jamal Murray in their last five games and Aaron Gordon in their last two games. Despite that, the Nuggets have won two in a row, beating the Hornets and Heat in their previous two assignments.

Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets with 24.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. The two-time MVP is also shooting at a high 63.2% clip. Jamal Murray is scoring 20.2 points per game while issuing 5.8 dimes per contest. Aaron Gordon is putting up 17.3 PPG while Michael Porter Jr. is contributing 16.7 points per game.

Denver is scoring 117.1 points per game this season. They are grabbing 42.7 boards per contest and issuing 29.0 assists per game. New acquisition Reggie Jackson is listed as day-to-day while Murray and Gordon are listed as questionable.

Mavericks vs Nuggets SU Prediction

The Mavericks are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Nuggets. Dallas is 3-1 SU in their last 4 games played in Denver.

• Dallas Mavericks SU trends:
• The Mavericks are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Mavericks are 4-3 SU in their last 7 road games.
• The Mavericks are 23-15 in their last 38 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Mavericks are 11-5 SU in their last 16 February games.

Denver Nuggets SU trends:

• The Nuggets are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played.
• The Nuggets are 19-1 SU in their last 20 home games.
• The Nuggets are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Nuggets are 18-2 SU in their last 20 home games played against the Western Conference.

The Mavs are 0-2 SU in the first two games that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have played together. But the duo has looked explosive in both games. In the loss to the Timberwolves the last time out, Doncic scored 33 points while Irving pumped in 26 points in the 4th quarter and 36 overall. However, he turned the ball over in the dying seconds when the Mavs had a chance to tie the game.

Dallas is rumored to be eyeing Lamarcus Aldridge. The veteran forward has not played this season but averaged 12.4 points per game for the Nets last campaign. He should provide the Mavs with an added scoring threat and low post presence. Aldrige however, will not suit up in this game.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets could be without Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Murray has missed Denver’s last five games with a right knee inflammation which coach Mike Malone suspects to be caused by compensating for his surgically repaired left knee. The injury however is not considered serious but Denver is expected to hold him out until after the All-Star break to give him more rest.

Despite playing without their second and third-best players, the Nuggets have learned how to win without them. They defeated Charlotte last Saturday and beat the Miami Heat on Monday Denver is the top team in the Western Conference and no matter what happens here, they will still be the Conference leaders after Wednesday’s games.

No question, the Nuggets have had a better season. But they are undermanned here. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are hungry for their first win in the Kyrie and Luka era. The two have played well together and in their last game, they even played better together.

Doncic and Irving are too good not to figure things out very soon. Soon could be on Wednesday night.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Nuggets  ATS Prediction

The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Nuggets. Dallas is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Denver.

Dallas Mavericks ATS trends:

• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Mavericks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.

Denver Nuggets ATS trends:

• The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record.
• The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.
• The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Nuggets are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight-up win.

Denver could be without Murray and Gordon, leaving Jokic to get the job done against Dallas. Meanwhile, the Mavs will have their high-scoring duo here, and given who Denver could not have on Wednesday, I think the Mavericks have very good value at +7 points. I might be too brave in taking the Mavs at the Moneyline. But when it comes to this spread, I think Dallas is a good bet.

Prediction: Mavericks +7

Mavericks vs Nuggets Over/Under Prediction

 

The total has gone over in two out of the last three games played between these two teams. The under is 2-1 in their last three games played in Denver.

 

Dallas Mavericks Over/Under trends:

• The over is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 road games.
• The over is 11-2 in the Mavericks’ last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The over is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The over is 19-9 in the Mavericks’ last 28 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 8-2 in the Mavericks’ last 10 Wednesday games.

Denver Nuggets Over/Under trends:

• The over is 6-2-1 in the Nuggets’ last 9 overall.
• The over is 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 home games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 6-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 8 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 6-2-1 in the Nuggets’ last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Nuggets’ last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score just 213.7 points per game in their last 10 games played and 217.33 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. Those said Dallas has gone over 226.5 points in five out of their last six games played. However, Denver has gone under 226.5 in four out of their last five games played.

Though Denver is undermanned, the Mavericks are going to set the tone of this game. Dallas loves to play a high-scoring games and they try to outscore their opponents. The Mavs are just 22nd in defensive rating at 115.1 points per 100 possessions. So even without Murray and Gordon, the Nuggets should be able to put up enough points to help the Mavericks get over the total.

Prediction: Over 226.5

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