New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers 04/17/2023 MLB Preview and Prediction

The New York Mets head to Yankee Stadium to open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

New York is 10-6 overall and 6-4 on the road this season. They are two games behind the Atlanta Braves in the latest NL East division standing. The Mets swept the struggling Oakland Athletics over the weekend.

Los Angeles lost two of three to the Chicago Cubs during the weekend and they are back to 8-8 on the year. The Dodgers are 5-4 at home this season but are just 3-6 in their last 9 games played overall. Los Angeles is second in the NL West and is just one game behind the leaders Arizona Diamondbacks.

New York Mets

The Mets completed their sweep of the A’s with a 4-3 win in 10 innings on Sunday. Pete Alonso tied the game with his league-leading 8th home run of the season as the Mets rallied to beat the struggling A’s. Eduardo Escobar scored the game-winning run in the 10th inning after a wild pitch by Sam Moll. The win moved New York to 10-6 SU on the season.

David Peterson will start for the Mets in this series opener. Peterson is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.84 through three starts this season. He heads to this matchup coming off a loss to San Diego where he allowed six hits and two earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched. He has struck out 16 batters in 14.2 innings pitched this season. Peterson is 15-15 with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.36 over his four-year career.

Brandon Nimmo leads the Mets with a batting average of .286. Pete Alonso leads the team with 8 home runs with 14 RBIs and a batting average of .26 while Francisco Lindor leads the team with 16 RBIs with four home runs while batting at .246.

The Mets are ranked 13th in runs scored with 71. They are 28th in batting average at .220, 8th in OBP at .340, and 26th in slugging percentage at .369. Their pitching staff is 12th in ERA at 4.12, 16th in WHIP at 1.37, and 10th in BAA at .243.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers lost two of three games to the Chicago Cubs over the weekend to fall back to .500 at 8-8. They lost Sunday’s rubber match 3-2. Los Angeles scored first with Chris Taylor’s 4th home run of the season. However, Julio Urias couldn’t get out of the sixth innings where he surrendered three runs. Mookie Betts delivered an RBI single in the 7th but it wasn’t enough to bring the Dodgers back.

Dustin May will take the mound for the Dodgers on Monday. He is 1-1 with an ERA of 1.47 and a WHIP of 0.47. May has not allowed more than two runs in any of his three starts this season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and went 9-9 with an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 1.05 over his five-year career.

Will Smith leads the Dodgers with a batting average of .333 but he is on the 7-day IL with a concussion. Meanwhile, May Muncy leads the Dodgers with six home runs and 14 RBIs while batting at .208. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts each have 12 RBIs for the Dodgers. The Dodgers are second in the league in home runs with 26.

The Dodgers are 4th in scoring this season at 83 total runs scored. They are 27th in batting average at .231, 9th in OBP at 1.37, and 2nd in slugging at .464.The Dodgers’ pitching staff in 13th in ERA at 4.33. They are first overall with 9 quality starts, 7th in WHIP at 1.22, and 17th in BAA at .251.

Mets vs Dodgers Prediction

The Mets are 22-47 in their last 69 games played against the Dodgers. New York is 6-14 in their last 20 games played in Dodger Stadium.

New York Mets betting trends:

• The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
• The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
• The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games against a right-handed starter.
• The Mets are 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Mets are 7-0 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Mets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 Monday games.
• The Mets are 26-11 in their last 37 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Mets are 16-7 in their last 23 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Mets are 41-18 in their last 59 Game 1s of a series.
• The Mets are 35-16 in their last 51 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Mets are 19-39 in their last 58 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Mets are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

Los Angeles Dodgers betting trends:

• The Dodgers are 75-34 in their last 109 overall.
• The Dodgers are 91-34 in their last 125 home games.
• The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 Monday games.
• The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Dodgers are 47-14 in their last 61 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Dodgers are 42-13 in their last 55 home games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Dodgers are 56-19 in their last 75 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Dodgers are 44-15 in their last 59 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Dodgers are 54-20 in their last 74 Game 1s of a series.
• The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 versus. National League East.
• The Dodgers are 40-15 in their last 55 home games against a left-handed starter.
• The Dodgers are 67-26 in their last 93 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Dodgers are 66-27 in their last 93 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Dodgers are 58-24 in their last 82 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Dodgers are 56-24 in their last 80 games following a loss.
• The Dodgers are 78-34 in their last 112 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Dodgers are 75-34 in their last 109 games on grass.
• The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600
• The Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 against. a team with a winning record
• The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a left-handed starter.

For his career, David Peterson is just 5-10 with an ERA of 4.63 on the road. In the month of April, his record is just 1-4. Peterson has made only one career start against the Dodgers and he lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing four runs.

Meanwhile, Dustin May has only pitched one inning against the Mets in his career. However, he has a career ERA of 3.05 at Dodger Stadium, with the number dropping to 2.95 when pitching in night games. Mays is also a career 2-2 with an ERA of 2.48 in six games pitched during the month of April.

Comparing both pitchers, Mays is obviously the better pick to get the win. He also has plenty of upside after fully recovering from surgery. On offense, the Dodgers are also crushing the ball early in the season as they are ranked 4th overall with 83 runs scored this season.

The Mets meanwhile, ranked 13th in runs scored with 71 but comparing them to the Dodgers, they don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Dodgers up and down the roster. Los Angeles is a big step up in opposition for the Mets after they played the Oakland A’s the last time out. Mays has pitched well enough this season to make me pick the Dodgers to win this game.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers -155

Mets vs Dodgers 

The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in 6 out of the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

New York Mets over/under trends:

• The under is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 overall.
• The over is 16-6-1 in the Mets’ last 23 road games
• The under is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 versus the National League West
• The over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record
• The under is 6-0 in the Mets’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5
• The under is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5
• The over is 8-1 in the Mets’ last 9 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower
• The under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The over is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 5-1 in the Mets’ last 6 on grass.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Mets’ last 7 road games against a right-handed starter.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The over is 20-7-1 in the Mets’ last 28 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The over is 8-3-1 in the Mets’ last 12 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The under is 7-3 in the Mets’ last 10 games following a win.
• The over is 11-5-1 in the Mets’ last 17 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The over is 37-18-1 in the Mets’ last 56 Game 1s of a series.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

• The over is 5-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 overall.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 8 on grass.
• The over is 8-1 in the Dodgers’ last 9 games following a loss.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 7 Game 1s of a series.
• The under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 9-3-1 in the Dodgers’ last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The under is 18-6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 26 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The over is 6-2 in the Dodgers’ last 8 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 5-2 in the Dodgers’ last 7 home games versus a left-handed starter.
• The under is 14-6-1 in the Dodgers’ last 21 against the National League East.
• The over is 13-6-1 in the Dodgers’ last 20 versus a team with a winning record.

The Dodgers have scored just a combined six runs in their last three games played where they went 1-2 against the Cubs. But overall, they are Top 5 in the league in scoring runs this season and should get back on track soon. Soon should be on Monday when they face Peterson and the Mets.

Peterson’s career numbers on the road and in April should help the Dodgers get their game going again and once they do, it’s going to be an avalanche of runs, given the hitters they have on their roster.

While the Mets haven’t gone deep as the Dodgers this season, they have been good in stealing bases and are able to manufacture runs as well as any team in the majors. With Pete Alonso in the middle of the order, the Mets are always a threat to score. Give me these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 8.5

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