Tuesday will be a continuation of the series between the top and bottom teams of the National League East when the New York Mets and Washington Nationals collide at Nationals Park.
The Mets are 65-37 and are the no. 1 team in the National League East division. New York is four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in the NL. The Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 games played and head to Game 2 with a seven-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Nationals are at the bottom of the NL East with a 35-69 record. Washington is long out of the playoff equation as they are 31 games behind the Mets in the division standings. Washington is 4-6 in their last 10 games played and the Nationals have dropped two in a row entering Tuesday’s game.
The Mets defeated the Nationals 7-3 in the series opener on Monday night.
The Mets have won seven in a row to keep a 3.5-game lead over the defending champions Atlanta Braves in the National League East division standings. The Mets won Game 1 against the Nationals on Monday behind home runs from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Max Scherzer allowed three runs in 6 ⅔ innings while throwing a season-high 105 pitches.
On Tuesday, the Mets will give the ball to the returning Jacob deGrom who will be making his season debut after suffering a shoulder injury during training camp. deGrom went 7-2 with an ERA of 1.08 and a WHIP of .554 when his season ended abruptly on July 7, 2021.
He has a career record of 9-4 in 22 starts against the Nationals while holding an ERA of 2.44 and a WHIP of 1.00. At Nationals Park, he is 7-1 with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.047.
The Nationals head to Game 2 on Tuesday night 31 games behind the Mets in the division standings. Washington is also 20.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL Wild Card race so their season is practically over. The Nationals could be making a big trade before this game with superstar Juan Soto possibly moving to a contender.
Washington announced that Cory Abbott will take the mound on Tuesday. The 26-year-old right-hander will be making only his fourth appearance in the big league. Abbott has posted an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 0.72 in three games pitched this season. He has thrown only 4.0 innings pitched this season so it’s likely that the Nationals will be having a bullpen day on Tuesday.
The Mets are 17-5 in their last 22 meetings against the Nationals. New York is also 6-2 in their last eight games played in Washington.
The Mets are:
7-0 in their last 7 overall.
4-0 in their last 4 road games.
6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
5-0 in their last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
5-0 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
7-0 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
6-0 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
7-1 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
6-1 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter.
10-2 in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.
27-9 in their last 36 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
9-3 in their last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
37-15 in their last 52 games against the National League East.
5-11 in their last 16 Game 2s of a series.
1-4 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
The Nationals are:
17-38 in their last 55 overall.
22-59 in their last 81 home games.
19-39 in their last 58 Games 2s of a series.
39-80 in their last 119 games against a right-handed starter.
24-51 in their last 75 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
22-48 in their last 70 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
17-38 in their last 55 games on grass.
3-7 in their last 10 Tuesday games.
16-38 in their last 54 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
18-43 in their last 61 games following a loss.
15-36 in their last 51 games against a team with a winning % above .600.
16-39 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
16-39 in their last 55 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
15-37 in their last 52 games opposite a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
2-5 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
9-24 in their last 33 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
13-38 in their last 51 home games against a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 17-65 in their last 82 games versus theNational League East.
Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Nationals are 1-8 in their last 9 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
This is an easy mismatch on paper. The Mets are the best team in the National League East and are among the World Series betting favorites while the Nationals are the worst team in all of baseball.
As if that’s not enough, New York is sending two-time Cy Young winner Jacob DeGrom on Tuesday while the Nationals are going with a starter in Abbott who has zero wins in the Major League. There is a catch, however: DeGrom will be starting for the first time in 13 months. Still, I don’t think that is going to make a significant difference on Tuesday.
With the trade deadline on Tuesday too, there’s no telling if players like Juan Soto and Josh Bell would still be in a Washington uniform in this game. But even if they are, I think that the Mets are too good for the Nationals this season.
Prediction: New York Mets
The total has gone over in four out of the last six head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The under is, however, 4-1 in their last five games played in Washington.
New York Mets over/under trends:
Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games played overall.
Over is 3-2 in the Mets’ last five road games played.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last five games against the National League.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 versus National League East.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Over is 6-2-1 in the Mets’ last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 on grass.
Over is 9-4-1 in the Mets’ last 14 road games opposite a right-handed starter.
Over is 9-4-1 in the Mets’ last 14 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last five games against the National League.
Over is 4-1 in the Mets’ last five road games versus the National League East division.
Over is 3-1 in the Mets’ last four road games against the National League.
Washington Nationals over/under trends:
Under is 6-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 overall.
Under is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Under is 9-3 in the Nationals’ last 12 during game 2 of a series.
Under is 6-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 on grass.
Under is 5-2 in the Nationals’ last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in the Nationals’ last 7 home games.
Over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last five August games played.
Over is 6-2 in the Nationals’ last 8 Tuesday games.
Over is 4-0 in the Nationals’ last 4 vs. National League East.
Over is 4-0 in the Nationals’ last four home games against the National League East.
Over is 46-41-4 in the Nationals’ last 91 games against the National League.
Over is 5-2 in the Nationals’ last seven home games against the National League.
Over is 5-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 7 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over
8.5 (-110)
Under
8.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 08/02/2022
These teams have combined to score an average of 8.6 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The Mets rank 5th in the majors with 4.70 runs per game this season. Their average run total entering Monday’s games is 8.43 runs per game and that number improves to 8.68 runs per game when playing on the road. New York has scored at least six runs in five out of their last seven games.
The Nationals are scoring an average of 3.82 runs per game and have seen a total of 9.27 runs per game, with the number dropping to 8.99 runs per game at home. Washington has allowed five or more runs in seven out of their last 10 games, including four games with seven or more runs conceded.
I know that the Nationals’ offense cannot be trusted. But with the way they are giving up runs as of late and with the way that the Mets have been scoring runs, New York should score more than enough to help these teams push the total over.
Prediction: Over 8.5
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