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Caleb Smith gets the call to start for the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. The 27-year old from Sam Houston State college has started six games this season and has a record of 3-0 with an ERA of 2.00, WHIP of 0.83 and BAA of .168. Smith has given up a total of three earned runs in his last four games and the Marlins are 4-0 during that stretch.
Smith has pitched a total of 36 innings this season. The left-hander has allowed 8 runs on 21 hits with four home runs while giving up 8 walks and striking out a total of 45 batters. In his last outing, Smith gave up just one run on four hits with one home run while walking two and fanning eight batters.
Miguel Rojas leads Miami with his .278 batting average while Jorge Alfaro has five home runs and a total 9 RBIs. On the other hand, left fielder Curtis Granderson leads the team with 11 RBIs including four homers. Kris Bryant is 1-3 with one home run against Caleb Smith.
For the Cubs, it will be John Lester who will open on top of the mound. The 35-year old left left-hander has started a total of 5 games this season and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 1.73, WHIP of 0.96 BAA of .189. Lester has given up just one run on eight hits in his last three starts. The Cubs are 2-1 during that stretch.
Lester has pitched a total of 26 innings this season and he has allowed just five earned runs on 18 hits while striking out 27 batters. In his last outing against the Seattle Mariners, Lester pitched seven scoreless innings and allowed just one run while walking one and striking out eight.
Javier Baez leads the Cubs with his .316 batting average. The Cubs’ shortstop also leads his team with 11 home runs and 26 RBIs. First baseman Anthony Rizzo has delivered a total of 25 RBIs while Catcher Willson Contreras has added a total of 21 RBIs to his credit.
Who Wins?
Miami is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played. The Marlins are 1-4 SU in their last five games on the road. Chicago is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played. The Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Cubs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall against the Marlins. Miami is also 1-9 SU in their last 10 road games against Chicago.
The Marlins are 5-14 SU in their last Game 2s of a series, 5-17 SU in their last 22 road games, 6-20 SU in their last 26 games against a left-handed starter and 0-6 SU in their last six games versus the National League Central. Miami is also 4-0 SU in Smith’s last four starts and 6-2 SU in his last eight road starts. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 4-0 SU in their last four Game 2s of a series, 5-2 SU in their last seven Tuesday games, 43-19 SU in their last 62 games against a left-handed starter and 22-5 in Lester’s last 27 home starts against an opponent with a losing record. Chicago is also 11-4 SU in Lester’s last 15 starts and 37-14 SU in his last 51 starts at home.
Caleb Smith is having a very solid season so far with five quality starts while not allowing more than three earned runs in every appearance so far. Smith is without doubt the best pitcher on Miami’s staff right now. However, with the Marlins’ offense struggling like hell, I don’t see him getting enough run support to win. Miami is the baseball betting underdog here and you have to like the plus money with Caleb Smith on the mound.
John Lester is also having a fine season with five quality starts so far. Lester has allowed just a total of five earned runs in 26.0 innings pitched. He’s struggled against the Marlins in his career but this group from Miami doesn’t score enough points to win games right now. The Cubs are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against the Marlins and Lester is 32-19 with an ERA of 3.31 in this ballpark.
I’m picking the Chicago Cubs to beat the Miami Marlins on 5/7/19.
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