Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers 6/5/19 MLB Odds, Pick, and Prediction

The Miami Marlins take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of their current set on Wednesday at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Miami won the rubber match of their weekend set with the San Diego Padres while Milwaukee won three out of four road games in Pittsburgh in their last series.

Sandy Alcantara gets the call to open on top of the hill for Miami. The 23-year-old right-hander has started 11 games this season and has a record of 2-5 with an ERA of 4.08, a WHIP of 1.41 and a BAA of .251. The Marlins are 3-7 SU in Alcantara’s last 10 starts of the year.

The Dominican Republic native has allowed a total of 33 runs ( 29 earned ) on 59 hits with 6 home runs while striking out 41 hitters and walking 31 batters. In his most recent outing, Alcantara gave up only two hits in six scoreless innings but got the loss as the Marlins lost to the Giants 1-3 last May 30th.

Miguel Rojas leads Miami with his .258 batting average. On the other hand, catcher Jose Alfaro is the team leader in both home runs and RBIs with a total of 9 and 23, respectively, this season. The Marlins are batting at .233 on the season and have scored only 189 runs this year.

After 21 months away due to a shoulder injury, Jimmy Nelson will make his first start of the season for the Brewers. Nelson pitched five times with four starts while being assigned to Triple-A San Antonio in the Pacific Coast League while he was on rehab. He posted a record of 3-0 with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.25 while walking 12 batters and fanning 29 hitters in a total of 24 innings of pitch work.

He has pitched once before against the Marlins and it came on the road on May 25, 2014. Milwaukee won 7-1 and Nelson pitched 5.2 scoreless innings while allowing five hits, three walks, and six strikeouts. He is 17-21 with an ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.244 over 329.2 innings of work at Miller Park.

Right fielder Christian Yelich has been Milwaukee’s main offensive weapon as he leads the team with 22 home runs and 49 RBIs on the season while batting at a team-best .313 clip for the year. As a team, the Brewers are hitting at .250 and they have scored a total of 304 runs this season.

Who Wins?

Miami is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Marlins are 3-4 SU in their last seven games played on the road. Milwaukee is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Brewers are 2-2 SU in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Brewers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the Marlins. Milwaukee is also 4-1 SU in their last five home games against Miami.

The Marlins are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against teams from the National League Central, 13-39 SU in their last 53 games on the road against a right-handed starter and 15-44 SU in their last 59 overall road games. The Brewers are 20-7 SU in their last 27 games against an opponent with a winning percentage of below .400 and 5-1 SU in their last six games against a right-handed starter.

The Marlins are 4-4 SU in their last eight games as road underdogs. On the other hand, the Brewers are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games as baseball betting favorites. Miami is 2-3 SU in their last five games against a right-handed starter while Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in their last 10 games against a right-hander.

Alcantara has pitched strong in his last few outings but he has his work cut out for him against the Brewers. Milwaukee has a solid line-up and they are 18-11 SU at home and have won five out of their last seven entering Tuesday’s games. This is going to be Nelson’s first start since September 2017 as he’s been out for nearly two years while recovering from surgery to repair a tear in his labrum and rotator cuff. I think facing a Miami team that’s averaging just 3.32 runs per game this season is a good way to bring back a guy like Nelson and still win a game. I’m picking the Milwaukee Brewers to beat the Miami Marlins on 6/5/19.

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Other Bets To Make

The Marlins are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played and Miami is 3-4 ATS in their last seven games on the road. The Brewers are likewise 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played and are 2-2 ATS in their last four games played at home.

Milwaukee has outscored Miami by an average of 3.4 runs per game in their last 10 meetings, 1.67 runs per game in their last three head to head encounters. Seven out of their last 10 meetings were decided by two or more runs and only one of Milwaukee’s last 10 games overall was decided by one run. Miami’s struggles with that bat are going to allow Milwaukee to win by at least two runs. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

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The over is 5-4-1 in Miami’s last 10 games and the total has gone over in four out of the last seven games played by the Marlins on the road. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by the Brewers. Milwaukee has seen the total go over in three out of their last four games played at home. Head to head, the over is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.

The general trends point to the under but there are specifics that point otherwise. The under is 7-0-1 in Miami’s last 8 games played on a Wednesday, 5-1-1 in their last seven Game 2s of a series, 5-0 in Alcantara’s last five starts following a Quality Start in his last outing and 4-0 in his last four starts on grass. The total has gone under in eight out of the last 10 Game 2s of a series played by Milwaukee and 4-0 in Nelson’s last four starts on grass. The under is also 4-0 in Nelson’s last four starts overall. Miami has struggled to hit as of late while Alcantara’s been throwing well in his last few outings. I think this one goes under. Prediction: Under 9

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