Michigan State vs Illinois 02/11/20 NCAA Basketball Betting Odds and Pick

The Michigan State Spartans head to the State Farm Center to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on February 11, 2020.

The Spartans are ranked 16th in the nation and are currently in 6th place in the Big Ten conference team standings with an 8-5 conference record. The Fighting Illini are the 20th ranked team in the country and are currently tied for third place in the conference standings with an 8-4 record. Illinois is just one game behind Big Ten leaders Maryland who are 9-3 in conference play.

Three Straight Losses

Michigan State heads to this Big Ten game with three straight losses on their resume. The Spartans were the preseason favorites but are currently just 16th in last week’s rankings. Michigan State is 2-3 SU in their last five games played and they are coming off a 68-77 loss to the Michigan Wolverines in their last outing.

Cassius Winston scored 20 points for the Spartans but he shot just 5-18 from the floor after putting up 32 against their in-state rivals last month. Xavier Tillman had a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds while Aaron Henry scored 11 points and grabbed nine rebounds for Michigan State.

The Spartans are the 5th best passing team in the nation at 18.8 assists per game. They rank 15th in rebounding at 41.4 boards grabbed per contest and are 77th in scoring at 75.9 points scored per game. Michigan State ranks 43rd in scoring defense at 63.8 points per game allowed.

Back to Back Losses

The Fighting Illini are coming off back to back losses. Illinois is 8-4 in conference play and they are tied with Penn State for the second-best record in the Big Ten conference. They were the 20th ranked team in the nation last week and head home after losing to Big Ten leaders Maryland 66-75 in their most recent outing.

Ayo Dosunmo led Illinois with 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists while Andres Feliz had 12 points and 7 boards off the bench. Kofi Cockburn and Alan Griffin each scored nine points for the Fighting Illini who looked like they were going to run away with the game in the first half but blew a 14-point lead to lose their second consecutive game.

Illinois is averaging 73.8 points per game on the year and they are ranked 62nd in scoring defense at only 64.7 points per game allowed. The Fighting Illini are the 30th best team in the nation when it comes to rebounding at 64.7 boards grabbed per contest and they are also averaging 13.6 assists per game.

Who Wins?

Michigan State is 11-5 SU in their last 16 games played. The Spartans are 1-4 SU in their last five games played on the road, and 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against the Big Ten conference. Illinois is 7-2 SU in their last nine games played. The Fighting Illini are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, the Spartans are 5-2 SU in their last seven games played against the Fighting Illini.

The Spartans were the preseason #1 team in the nation but not only have they not lived up to that billing, but they also continue to slip in the team standings. Michigan State was ranked 16th in last week’s rankings but after back to back losses, after the rankings were given, they could be out of the Top 25 this week.

The Fighting Illini had their chance to take the Big Ten lead but the loss to the Terrapins gave Maryland sole possession of the conference’s top spot. Illinois has also lost back to back games and they are also in danger of falling out of the Top 25 this week.

I will have to take Michigan State in this game. The Spartans have one of the best teams in the nation and at some point this season, I expect them to put the pieces together. A game against a conference contender like Illinois should be a good place to start. The Fighting Illini have been terrific but the Spartans have the size and the deeper bench to win this game.

Prediction: Michigan State

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Other Bets to Make

The Spartans are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. Michigan State is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on the road, and 1-4 ATS in their last five February games. The Fighting Illini are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. They are 2-3 ATS in their last five home games and are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in February. Head to head, the Spartans are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Fighting Illini.

The Spartans have a losing record on the road while the Fighting Illini have dropped just two out of their last 14 at their home floor so I won’t blame you for going with Illinois here, especially with the plus points. However, I fancy Michigan State because they have more players who can contribute and they have the size advantage over Illinois. I think Michigan State flexes its muscles here and show why they were the preseason favorites.

Prediction: Michigan State -2

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The total has gone under in seven out of the last nine games played by the Spartans. The under is 3-1-1 in the last five road games played by Michigan State. The total has gone under in 10 out of Illinois’ last 15 games played. The under is 3-2 in the Fighting Illini’s last five home games, and the under is 9-4 in their last 13 games played against the Big Ten conference. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

I think the total for this game is pretty low considering that these are two very solid offensive teams. Both these teams are scoring over 70 points per game and Michigan State likes a fast-paced game. The Fighting Illini also likes to play in transition so I think these teams are going to engage in a shootout here. I’ll take the over for this game.

Prediction: Over 141.5

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