Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Game 4 Odds, Preview, and Prediction 5/06/19

The Boston Celtics hope to snap a two-game losing skid in the series and salvage a victory at their home floor as they take on the Bucks in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday night at the TD Garden in Boston.

Get Back In the Series

The Boston Celtics hope to get back in the series after surrendering home court advantage with a poor shooting effort in Game 3. The Celtics shot just 35-81 or 43.2% from the field in Game 3 while allowing the Bucks to make 50.6% of their shots from the floor. Kyrie Irving shot just 8-22 from the floor including just 2-8 from behind the three point area for the Celtics in Game 2 while committing 4 turnovers.

The Celtics were up by a point at the half but were outscored 40-31 in the third and trailed by as many as 17 points in the fourth period before a strong finish that cut the lead to single digits at the end of the game. Irving had 29 and second-year forward Jayson Tatum had 20 for Boston while the Celtics were outscored 52-24 inside the shaded lane.

Giannis Keeps On Attacking

Giannis Antetokounmpo just keeps on attacking for the Milwaukee Bucks. The Greek Freak scored 32 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in Game 3. He’s scored at least 30 points in all of his games at the TD Garden this season. Antetokounmpo was also efficient in Game 4 with just a total of 13 field goal attempts. He was awarded 16 foul shots for aggressively taking the ball to the basket against the Boston defense.

Khris Middleton continued his stellar play with 20 points in Game 3 while Pat Connaughton had 14 points to lead the Bucks’ bench. Milwaukee’s reserves outscored Boston’s bench 42-16 to show that they too have excellent depth. The Bucks could have won Game 3 by a bigger margin but they missed 12 out of 36 foul shots in a game that featured a total of 53 fouls combined.

Who Wins

The Bucks are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Milwaukee is 3-0 SU in their last three road games played. The Celtics are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. Boston is 2-2 SU in their last four games played at home. Head to head, Milwaukee is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against the Bucks.

The Bucks are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against Eastern Conference teams and 12-4 SU against opponents from the Atlantic Division. The Celtics meanwhile are 9-3 SU in their last dozen games against the Eastern Conference, 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against the 7-3 in their last 10 home games against the Bucks.

The Celtics are scratching their heads from coming out flat to start Game 3. But at least they finished strong and ended up losing by single digits. I expect Boston to start better in this game and try to put the Bucks on the ropes early. Kyrie’s struggled to shoot in the last two games, going 12-40 combined. But someone who shot 48.7% from the floor during the regular season doesn’t struggle in too many games. Kyrie breaks out of his slump and Boston rolls to tie the series at two games apiece.

I’m picking the Boston Celtics to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 4 of their second round NBA playoffs.

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Other Bets To Make

Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Bucks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games played at home. Boston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Celtics are 2-2 ATS in their last four games played at home. Head to head, the Celtics are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Bucks.

The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record of better than .600. 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games and 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games overall. On the other hand, the Celtics are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two-days rest, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games played and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games. Head to head, the Celtics are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against the Bucks. Boston has struggled ATS and are 1-2 ATS in three games this series. But I expect the Celtics to bounce back after giving away home court advantage in Game 3. You can make a valid argument both ways here. But I don’t expect the Celtics  to shoot poorly for a second straight game at their home floor.

Prediction: Boston Celtics -1.5

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The total has gone over in seven out of the last 10 games played by the Bucks. The over is 3-0 in Milwaukee’s last three games on the road. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played by Boston. The over is 20-9 in Boston’s 29 home games played against the East this season. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 games between these two teams.

The over is 5-2 for the Bucks in the playoffs while the over is 3-1 in the Celtics’ last for playoff games played. The Celtics have allowed an average of 123 points in their last two games and I’m not sure if they can shut down the Bucks’ offense. Instead, I think Boston obliges in a shootout here because they also have a lineup that has plenty of firepower. The over is 3-1 in this series and 8-1 in the last nine games between these two teams in Boston. I expect a shootout between two teams who can’t stop each other on defense.

Prediction: Over 210

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