The best team in the nation looks to extend its winning streak to seven on the season as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Missouri Tigers at the Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday, 10/13/18.
Alabama has opened the season a perfect 6-0 and have won eight in a row dating back to last season. The Crimson Tide toppled Arkansas 65-31 this past week while the Tigers are coming off back to back losses to Georgia and South Carolina. As Alabama hopes to fortify their hold of the top spot in the rankings, the Tigers are in search of their first win in conference play.
After opening the season 3-0, the Missouri Tigers find themselves in the middle of a two game skid. The loss to #2 Georgia wasn’t surprising, however, Missouri was expected to beat South Carolina the last time out, only to fall 35-37 at the end of regulation play.
Although Lock has struggled in the last two games, the Missouri offense has been good this season at 39 points per game this season, 25th best in FBS. On the other end though it has been another story as their defense ranks only 84th in points allowed at 28.8 points per game and their pass defense allows 284.8 yards per game, 117th in the country. This could be a problem against Alabama’s Heisman candidate quarterback.
Missouri vs Alabama 10/13/18
Moneyline Odds: Not yet available as of writing
The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide have been dominating their competition this season. The Crimson Tide are averaging 56 points per game this season or a total of 336 points on the year, the most in college football. Alabama has scored at least 50 points in five out of their six games and have beaten their opponents by an average of 40 points per game.
Alabama’s defense allows 16 points per game, 11th best in the NCAA but last week against Arkansas, they yielded 31 points. Head Coach Nick Saban wasn’t too happy with their defensive effort but given that their defense was very good before last week, expect the defensive line to pick it up on Saturday.
Missouri is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games but 4-12 SU in their 16 games on the road. Alabama is 5-0 SU in their last five games and 5-0 SU in their last five games at home. The Crimson Tide won their last two meetings
Missouri is ranked 117th in the nation against the pass, giving up nearly 300 passing yards per contest. They also rank 84th in the NCAA with 28.8 points per game allowed. They are playing the top team in the nation in Alabama at the Crimson Tide’s home field. Tagovailoa should pick apart the Tigers’ secondary.
We’re picking Alabama to beat Missouri on 10/13/18.
Missouri is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall but only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on the road. Meanwhile Alabama is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
Missouri vs Alabama 10/13/18
Spread Odds: Missouri +28 (-113), Alabama -28 (-107)
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18
Alabama should be the easy pick here as they have the #1 offense and the #11 defense in the country. But if you take a look at their trends they have struggled against the odds this season. Alabama failed to cover against Louisiana and Arkansas but blasted Ole’ Miss 62-7 as 22.5 point favorites Their average winning margin this season is 40 points with 22 as their lowest winning margin.
Prediction: Alabama -28
The over is 6-2 in Missouri’s last 8 games on the road and 6-1 in the last seven games overall for Alabama with the total averaging 68.71. The over is also 7-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 conference games with an average total score of 71.89
Missouri vs Alabama 10/13/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 75 +105, Under 75 -125
Odds from Sportsbetting.ag as of 10/10/18
Alabama has scored 336 total points this season, more than any other team in college football. On a good night, the Crimson Tide can easily cover the over by themselves. But even if not, they average 56 points per game and their defense isn’t always razor sharp. Last week, Arkansas scored 31 points on the Alabama defense and considering that Missouri has more to offer on offense than the Razorback, the 75 total can easily be achieved.
Prediction: Over 75
The best value bet here is the +105 for the Over 75 and personally, that would be my bet too. Alabama is a sure winner in this game but with the moneyline (not yet available as of writing) expected to be too pricey, we are forced to look at the Spread and Over/Under Odds for value. But at +28, I’m having some reservations because Alabama has been unpredictable against the spread (check the trends) although yes, they’ve never won by a margin lower than 22 points this season. I’m going with the over 75 for this game.
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