NBA Conference Finals - Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors Game 6 Odds and Prediction 05/25/19

The Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors play Game 6 of the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night at the Scotiabank Center in Toronto, Canada.

Back Against the Wall

After cruising the entire postseason, including the first two games of this series, the Milwaukee Bucks suddenly find themselves with their backs against the proverbial wall. Toronto has lost the last three games of the series to fall behind 2-3 in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals.

Giannis had a superb season and will likely be named the MVP in June but he has to make his free throws. Antetokounmpo shot 74.8% from the line during the regular season. He’s only shooting 56.6% in the series and missed 5,4 and 5 free throws in the last three games of the season. Remember that Milwaukee lost Games 3 and 5 by six points each.

Take away Game 4, Khris Middleton is shooting just 4-17 from three-point distance. He’s shot below 34% from the floor in three out of the five games in the series and is averaging just 13.6 points per game. Milwaukee needs Middleton’s offense or else they could go fishing next week.

Coming Back Strong

The Raptors were given up for dead after the first two games of the series. But they have come back very strong to win the last three games and take command of the series with Game 6 to be played at their home floor. Toronto entered Game 5 having lost their last four previous games in Milwaukee but stole victory on Thursday night to move ahead 3-2 in the series.

Fred VanVleet averaged 3.3 points during the first three games of the series. He has put up 17 points per game in the last two games while hitting 10-12 from behind the three-point arc and 12-19 from the field. I mean he’s going to cool off sooner or later but with the series on the line, I expect Toronto’s super sub to contribute big again.

Kyle Lowry is silently averaging 21 points per game in the last two games of the series. Danny Green is shooting just 20% from the floor and 18% from behind the arc. I think he’s due for a big game this series and that’s what makes Toronto even more dangerous here. Marc Gasol is averaging 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds when the series is played in Toronto.

Who Wins?

Milwaukee is 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played and the Bucks are 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road. Toronto is also 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played. The Raptors are 4-0 SU in their last four games played at home. Head to head, The Bucks are 6-4 SU in their last 10 meetings. Toronto though has won the last three games of the series and are 2-0 SU in Toronto in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals.

The Bucks had won four in a row against the Raptors in Milwaukee. But in Game 5, we saw the lack of experience set in. Milwaukee built double-digit leads several times during the game but they allowed the Raptors to come back and out-steady them in the end game.

Toronto looked dead after Game 2 but they have resurrected their season behind Kawhi Leonard and production from Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, and Fred VanVleet. VanVleet was on fire in Game 5 and it was his three-point shooting that was the difference in that game.

I’m not sure if it’s Milwaukee’s inexperience or if the Raptors are just peaking at the right time. This is the first time that the Bucks have lost three in a row all season long and it couldn’t have come in a worse situation. Now the odds are stacked against them. We’ll see what stuff Giannis is made of in Game 6. Kawhi Leonard may be banged up and all but he’s been there and done that. He knows how to play through pain and get the win. I’m picking the Toronto Raptors to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

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Other Bets To Make

The Bucks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played. Milwaukee is 2-2 ATS in their last four games played on the road. The Raptors are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. Toronto is 3-1 ATS in their last four home games played. Head to head, the Bucks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Raptors. But the Raptors are 3-0 ATS in the last three games of this series and 2-0 ATS in the two games played in Toronto so far.

Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Atlantic Division teams, 41-21-3 in their 65 games against Eastern Conference teams this season and 8-4 ATS as betting underdogs this season. Toronto is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games played in May but are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games played on a Saturday and 58-21 ATS in 79 games as betting favorites this season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the first five games of the series. Toronto is right where they want to be at this stage of the season. They stole home court advantage in Game 5 and now have a chance to put the Bucks away. I think momentum is going to push Toronto to victory here. Prediction: Raptors -2

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The total has gone over in 13 out of the last 20 games played by the Bucks. The over is 8-1 in Milwaukee’s last nine games on the road. The under is 3-1 in Toronto’s last four games played and also over in three out of their last four games at home. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-2 in the last eight games played by the Bucks and Raptors in Toronto.

The over is 3-2 in the current series and the over is also 2-0 in the first two games played in Toronto. The Bucks are averaging 109.2 points per game in the series and their 99 points in Game 5 was their lowest production in five games played against Toronto. The Raptors averaged just 101.5 points per game in the first two games in Milwaukee. They have bounced back and averaged 114.33 points in the last three games of the series, including 119 points per game in Toronto. The Raptors’ offense is an entirely different machine when playing in Toronto. I think the Raptors pour it on here. Prediction: Over 212.5

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