NCAA Football Week 3 Value Picks

Week 3 of NCAA Football is here and among the many games on deck this week, we’ve handpicked some games, previewed them and made the predictions which we think will deliver the winning results.

Florida State vs Syracuse Sat 9/15/18 12:00 PM E.T.

Despite losing their opening game to Virginia Tech to the tune of 3-24, there was no reason to be worried about Florida State, at least not yet. Quarterback Deondre Francois was playing his first full game since the 2016 season so it was all but natural that he would be rusty. And yes, you can include forgiving his three interceptions in that contest. It also didn’t help that the Seminoles didn’t recover any of the six fumbles during the game and it was also a good sign that they actually outgained the Hokies in the entire game. So despite the score and the loss, Florida State was all good.

But instead of bouncing back with a big game against Samford in their next assignment, Florida State needed to score a touchdown with 4:03 left in the game to take their first lead of the game and well, their first lead of the season. The Seminoles won 36-26 and Francois delivered with 326 passing yards with 3 touchdowns and no turnovers but their defense regressed badly,  yielded 475 passing yards.

Poor defense, should it continue this week, will doom the Seminoles as they will face the longest tenured quarterback in the ACC in Eric Dungey. In his first two games this season, Dungey has thrown a total of seven touchdowns not to mention that he’s currently the second leading rusher in the conference. The Orangemen are 2-0 this season after a pair of high scoring wins. They beat Western Michigan 55-42 in Week 1 and then pounded Wagner 62-10 in their second game of the season.

Vanderbilt vs Notre Dame Sat 9/15/18 2:30 PM E.T.

Not much was expected from Vanderbilt before this season began. In fact, they were pegged to win 4.5 games in 2018. But after week 2, the Commodores are unbeaten in two outings and it’s not just the wins that impress us, it’s the way they have won those games.Vanderbilt defeated Middle Tennessee and Nevada by an average margin of 29.5 points.

Credit their multi-facet running attack which has already produced 3 80 plus yards rushers this early in the season and an opportunistic top rated defense which has already forced six turnovers in two games. I think though that it’s their defense that’s going to slow down the Irish here and help them control the game.

Like Vanderbilt, Notre Dame is unbeaten at 2-0 but they’ve looked far less impressive than the Commodores during the first two weeks of the season. Entering week 3, the Fighting Irish only rank 106th in the nation in rushing yards, are 95th in total yards and are 92nd in scoring. Against Ball State last week, there were two running plays where Notre Dame gained a total of 73 yards. If you take both plays out of the equation, the Irish have so far ran for a total of 44 yards on 39 plays. That is going to be disaster against 18th best rush defense in college football.

Ohio State vs Texas Christian University Sat 9/15 8:00 PM E.T.

The Ohio State Buckeyes will play their final game without coach Urban Meyer on the sidelines. Meyer is currently serving a three game suspension in connection with the abuse allegations against ex- wide receivers coach Zach Smith who was fired on July 23. So far, Ryan Day has led the team to a 2-0 start but they will be tested in Week 3 against an unbeaten TCU team which will be playing in front of a massive pro-TCU crowd at Jerry’s World. Currently, the Buckeyes are 12.5 point favorites over the Horned Frogs.

The Buckeyes have covered two big spreads to start the season. Second year quarterback Dwayne Haskins has thrown for nine touchdowns and has completed 79.2% of his passes through two weeks. Haskins has distributed the wealth nicely as he has completed a pass to 15 different receivers in two games played. But defense should be the key for Ohio State against a versatile offensive team like TCU. The Buckeyes gave up 392 yards in total offense in week 1 but settled down to yield just 134 in their second outing.

Ohio State and the other big schools are often overrated in the betting lines. On the other hand, TCU is often underrated because well, TCU is just TCU and doesn’t have the kind of hype as the likes of Ohio State has. I think the 12.5 spread is overstated. The Frogs are off to a rousing 2-0 start and have so far shown that they can score touchdowns any way you want it. TCU already has 5 passing touchdowns, 5 rushing touchdowns, two punt returns returned for touchdowns and two fumbles recovered then returned for the score.