New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals 12/12/22 NFL Preview

The New England Patriots head to the desert to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.

New England has lost back-to-back games and they cannot afford a third straight loss if they still intend to make the postseason. The Patriots are 6-6 SU on the season and a loss on Monday will drop them to below the .500 mark, not especially with a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders looming on a short week.

Arizona is coming off its bye week and should be well-rested and well-prepared for this home game. The Cardinals have dropped four out of their last five games played and need to win out if they want to make the postseason for the second straight year. Arizona also heads to this matchup having lost their last two games.

New England Patriots

The Patriots were 6-4 SU a couple of weeks ago and looked like they were locked in on a wildcard spot in the AFC playoffs. However, they have lost two in a row and look like they are fading fast. If New England wants to play in the postseason, they need to arrest the skid and win on Monday.

This season, New England is tied with Denver for last place in red zone touchdowns. Last week, Mac Jones went 22-36 for 195 yards and one TD pass. New England went 3-12 in third down conversions and was 0-1 in the red zone. If the Pats want to win on Monday, the offense has got to do better.

New England is 3-3 SU on the road this season and has won its last two meetings against Arizona. They rank 7th in the NFL in total defense but are just 24th in total offense. The key for them will be to keep Kyler Murray in the pocket and limit the production of DeAndre Hopkins.

Arizona Cardinals

At 4-8 SU, this season has been a disappointment for the Arizona Cardinals and the next few weeks could be crucial in how this team will move to look forward. Kyler Murray has feuded with DeAndre Hopkins and the QB has not been as dynamic as he was in recent seasons. Kliff Kingsbury is just 38-32-1 as head coach and no doubt, his job security will be an issue if they can’t finish strong.

Last week, the Cardinals led 24-17 in the fourth period but could not close out the game. They gave up a TD with just 10 seconds left in the game and allowed the Chargers to steal the game with a two-point conversion. Murray returned from a two-game absence to throw for 191 yards with 2 passing TDs and one rushing score.

For Arizona, they need to slow down the New England rushing attack and force Mac Jones and the paltry passing offense to beat them. The Cardinals are ranked 20th in total offense and are just 17th in passing offense this season but that’s because Hopkins missed the first six games of the season with an injury.

Patriots vs Cardinals SU Prediction

The Patriots are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played against the Cardinals. New England is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played in Arizona.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played.

• The Patriots are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played on the road.

• The Patriots are 1-6 SU in their last 7 December games.

Arizona Cardinals SU trends:

• The Cardinals are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played.

• The Cardinals are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played at home.

• The Cardinals are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC East Division.

New England saw its defense fail them on Thanksgiving Day as they lost to the Minnesota Vikings 33-26. Other than that game, it has been the offense that has been the problem for the Patriots this season as they are ranked 20th or worse in scoring, passing offense, and rush offense.

Second-year QB Mac Jones had a career-high 382 passing yards against the Vikings but they traded scores with Minnesota and lost when their defense could not do its part. Last Thursday, Jones argued with the bench and called for more passing plays as the team lost to the Buffalo Bills 24-10.

The Cardinals have historically struggled to finish the season under Kliff Kingsbury. Since he took over in 2019, the team has not played well during the second half of the regular season. Last year, they lost four out of their last five games and ended up in the wild-card round, losing to the eventual champions Los Angeles Rams, in their only playoff appearance in Kingsbury’s four seasons.

Arizona is coming off a bye and that should help their players get healthier, most notably QB Kyler Murray and WR Marquise Brown. Brown returned from a foot injury the last time out and caught six passes for 46 yards in Week 12. Unfortunately, the Cardinals lost to the Rams 25-24 as 2.5-point home underdogs.

The next three weeks will be a gauge if the Patriots are playoff-worthy this season as they do not face a divisional opponent until Week 17 when they host the Dolphins. New England has a shot at winning each of their next three games. They can beat the Cardinals if Belichick outcoaches Kingsbury on Sunday.

The Patriots have struggled against quarterbacks who can run the football. Kyler Murray, no matter what you say about him, is one of the most talented QBs who can do that very well. The Cardinals need to exploit that weakness of the Patriots like the Bills, Bears, and Ravens did. If they can, they can pull off this win. Knowing Kingsbury, I think they can.

Prediction: Arizona Cardinals

Patriots vs Cardinals ATS Prediction

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Cardinals. New England is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played in Arizona.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

• The Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home.

• The Patriots are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

• The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.

• The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Patriots are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.

• The Patriots are 35-16 ATS against a team with a losing record.

• The Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games

• The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December

• The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 14.

Arizona Cardinals ATS trends:

• The Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

• The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 14.

• The Cardinals are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.

• The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Monday games.

• The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.

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As stated earlier, we have seen the Patriots’ defense struggle against teams whose quarterbacks can run the football. Although Murray may have a tender hamstring, the bye week should have given him enough time to heal and be close to full strength in this game.

With Marquise Brown back, Murray should have another option when he throws the football because for sure, Bill Belichick to focus on Hopkins. Then there is James Conner who rushed for over 100 yards last week. Conner should be able to do some damage against the Patriots’ 12th-ranked run defense.

The Cardinals are next to last in points allowed this season. But that shouldn’t be too much of an issue against a New England offense that has struggled to score. In the end, the Cardinals should be able to get enough offense going to pull off the straight-up upset.

Prediction: Cardinals +1

Patriots vs Cardinals Over/Under

The total has gone under in 4 out of the last 5 meetings between the Patriots and Cardinals. The under is 2-1-1 in their last four games played in Arizona.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games overall.

• The under is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games following a bye week.

• The under is 7-1 in the Patriots’ last 8 games in December.

• The under is 5-1 in the Patriots’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.

• The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

• The over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.

• The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

• The under is 16-5 in the Patriots’ last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

• The under is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 Monday games.

• The under is 19-7 in the Patriots’ last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The under is 24-9 in the Patriots’ last 33 games on grass.

• The under is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games in Week 14

Arizona Cardinals over/under trends:

• The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games overall.

• The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 home games.

• The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 games following a straight-up loss.

• The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals’ last 4 games on grass.

• The under is 9-2 in the Cardinals’ last 11 Monday games.

• The under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games in Week 14.

• The under is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last 7 games following a bye week.

The Patriots have gone over the total just once in their last five games played. However, they should find some success against the Cardinals’ secondary. The over is 5-0 in Arizona’s last five games played. They will need to get their offense going if they want a chance at winning this game.

With Murray getting an extra week off, he should be close to 100% here. We know that he is the key to Arizona’s game and if Murray gets going here, the Cardinals have the tools to outscore the Patriots in a game where there will be more points than expected.

Prediction: Over 43.5

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