The New England Patriots take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday 12/16/18 in a matchup that during the preseason, was supposed to be a preview of the AFC championship game. Instead, the Patriots will be trying to recover from the most shocking loss in franchise history while the Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives.

Most Shocking Loss Ever

The New England Patriots suffered their most shocking loss ever in their last game when the Miami Dolphins converted on a game winning 69 yard touchdown off a double lateral with no time left on the clock, the longest of such play since the 1970 merger. New England was up 33-28 with seven seconds left in the game when the Dolphins pulled off the “Miami Miracle”.

The Patriots have lost four times on the road this season and the last time this happened was in 2013. As for losing five road games in a season, we go way back to 2009 when it last occured. Despite the loss, Tom Brady put up perhaps his best game of the season, throwing for a season best 358 yards with three touchdowns. Brady has thrown for 3,700 yards this season with 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.

What’re the Odds?

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 12/16/18
Moneyline Odds: Patriots -150, Steelers +130
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/14/18

Fighting For their Lives

It was barely four weeks ago when the Pittsburgh Steelers were 7-2-1. But after suffering successive losses to the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and then to the hapless Oakland Raiders, the Steelers are in a position where they are fighting for their playoff lives.

Ben Roethlisberger has been listed as questionable for this big game but Big Ben said that while he’s sore, he will be on the field on Sunday to lead the Steelers. Big Ben has completed 67.7% of his passes this season and he has thrown for a total of 4,227 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Surely Pittsburgh needs him to play to even have a chance at winning this game.

Who Wins?

New England is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played. The Patriots are 19-5 SU in their last 24 games on the road. Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in their last 25 games played. The Steelers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 game at home. New England is 5-0 SU in their last 5 head to head meetings with Pittsburgh. The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six road games against the Steelers.

The miracle in Miami was a heartbreaker for New England, no doubt about that. It’s not that they weren’t able to put a stop on the last play but the Patriots also failed to put away the Dolphins on the offensive end. But sometimes, things like that happen. And all the time, the Patriots always find a way to bounce back as if nothing happened.

As for Pittsburgh, they are in a free fall right now with three straight losses and if you’re a fan, now is the time to feel worries. They have three more tough games ahead in their schedule and there is no more room for any letup. The pressure isn’t any easier for them now.

Betting Prediction

I’m giving the Patriots the advantage here. New England bounces back and Pittsburgh continues to spiral downward.

We’re picking the New England Patriots to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on 12/16/18.

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Other Bets To Make

New England is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played and the Patriots are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games played on the road. The Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall and Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games played. Head to head, the Patriots are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games versus the Steelers and New England is also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against Pittsburgh.

What’re the Odds?

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 12/16/18
Spread Odds: Patriots -2.5 (-118), Steelers +2 (-102)
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/14/18

Betting Prediction

The Patriots are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games against teams with winning records. They are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of December are 4-0 ATS in their last Week 15 games played. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 December games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

Prediction: Patriots -2.5

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The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by New England. The under is 8-3 in the Patriots last 11 road games. The total has gone under in four out of the last six games overall played by Pittsburgh. The over is 7-1 in the Steelers’ last eight home games played. Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by these two teams.

What’re the Odds?

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers 12/16/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 52 -105 Under 52 -115
Odds from sportsbetting.ag as of 12/14/18

Betting Prediction

The Patriots rank 6th in scoring at 28 point scored per game while the Steelers are fourth at 28.2 points per game. New England allows the 5th most passing yards per game on the road this season and have given up the 8th most passing touchdowns this season so Big Ben should do his thing. In six games at Heinz Field this season, the average combined score has been 60.67. This should be a high scoring duel between Brady and Roethlisberger.

Prediction: Over 52

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