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The New York Giants take on the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football in a battle between last placed NFC team at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
At 1-5, the Giants currently sit at the bottom of the NFC East. Meanwhile, the 2-4 Falcons are the current cellar dwellers of the the NFC South. New York was recently hammered by the Philadelphia Eagles 13-34 at their home field while the Falcons just snapped a three game losing skid with a 34-29 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday.
Stuck At The Bottom
Before the 2018 NFL season began, the New York Giants were touted to challenge for the NFC East title or at least make a wildcard playoff spot. Instead, they are stuck at the bottom of their division at 1-5. Now the Giants are in a spot where they may have to make a decision on Eli Manning.
The lone bright spot for the Giants season has been rookie running back Saquon Barkley who had a career best 133 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last time out. Barkley has a combined 811 rushing and receiving yards with 6 touchdowns on the season. However, without air support, Barkley’s efforts have not been enough to get the Giants victories.
New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons 10/22/18
Moneyline Odds: Giants +175, Falcons -205
Odds From Betonline.ag as of 10/19/18
Falcons Break Out of Slump
Atlanta got a much needed win against the Bucs to keep their season alive. Quarterback Matt Ryan easily had his best game of the season, completing 34 out of 41 passes for 355 yards with three scores and no picks. Ryan will have to throw as good as his previous game if the Falcons are to win because Atlanta is without running back Devonta Freeman who has a groin injury.
But even if the Atlanta offense gets going, the Falcons’ concern will be their depleted secondary which is missing safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Nea due to injuries. The Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed at 32 points per game and 30th in total yards allowed at 417.2 Despite that, I’m not sure if Manning can take advantage of the situation.
Who Wins?
The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games and 1-6 SU in their last seven road games. The Falcons are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games but are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home. Against the Giants however, the Falcons are only 2-5 SU in their last seven games and are just 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played in Atlanta.
The Falcons have some struggles on offense but it’s their defense that’s really hurt them this season. But the struggles have stemmed from the fact that they’ve lost their top three players on that side of the field due to injury. As a result, the Falcons have given up at least 37 points in three of their last four games.
If you look at the Giants’ side of things, the only positive on the season is Saquon Barkley who has scored at least one touchdown in four out of five games this season. But other than Barkley, there is not much good to talk about New York’s 1-5 season. Even with just offense, the Falcons can win this game outright.
We’re picking the Atlanta Falcons to beat the New York Giants on 10/22/18. Atlanta is fairly priced at -205 but you might want to have a look at the other bets for this game.
Other Bets To Make
The Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games while the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. At home though, Atlanta is 4-2 SU in their last 6 home games. However, the Falcons are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against the Giants in Atlanta.
New York is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the NFC and are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after giving up at least 30 points in their previous games. Meanwhile, the schedule favors Atlanta because the Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday Night Football games and are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 primetime games.
New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons 10/22/18
Spread Odds: Giants +4.5 (-120), Falcons -4.5 (+100)
Odds From Betonline.ag as of 10/19/18
The trends can go either way, depending on how you want to interpret it. But my take here is that I can’t go with a 37 year old Eli Manning who is showing obvious signs of slowing down. No, not even against a depleted secondary like the Falcons’. The last time out, Atlanta defeated a Bucs team that surely has more firepower than the Giants. Atlanta’s defense has played poorly this season but their offense will be enough to win this game and cover the spread.
Prediction Falcons -4.5
The total has gone under in 9 out of the last 13 games played by the Giants and under in 4 out of the last 6 road games that they’ve played. Meanwhile, the total has gone over in all of the Falcons’ last five games and also over in four out of their last five home games. Head to head, the total has gone under in 10 out of the last 11 games between the Giants and Falcons and also under in the last five games between these two teams in Atlanta.
New York Giants vs Atlanta Falcons 10/22/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 54.5 -110, Under 54.5 -110
Odds From Betonline.ag as of 10/19/18
Between these teams, the trends support a strong case for the under. But if you take a look at both teams this season, neither can play defense. The Giants are giving up an average of 37.5 points per game in their last four games while the Falcons have given up an average of 417.2 yards per game this season. Factor in the fact that the Falcons have scored an average of 34.5 points per game at home this season and the over is a good play here.
Not only is the over 5-0 in Atlanta’s last five games, the total has gone over by an average of 8.42 points this season. This game could easily have a total score of 60. Pour in your bets here because defense won’t be a factor in this game. Prediction: Over 54.5
Not only is the over 5-0 in Atlanta’s last five games, the total has gone over by an average of 8.42 points this season. This game could easily have a total score of 60. Pour in your bets here because defense won’t be a factor in this game.
Prediction: Over 54.5
I’m hearing a lot of people screaming OVER right now because the Falcons are soaring high above the over this season. I agree and I think that even if we’re getting Atlanta at even money on the spread odds of -4.5, the over may be the safer bet for this game. With Atlanta’s defensive struggles this season, who knows if Saquon Barkely has a huge game and keep this close. Go with the over.
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