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The New York Yankees head to the Citizens Bank Park on Monday, July 27, 2020, to take on the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Yankees are trying to build off their opening series success against the World Series champions Washington Nationals. New York clinched the series win with a victory on Sunday. On the other hand, the Phillies will try to bounce back after losing to an underdog Miami Marlins team in their opening series. Philadelphia won on Sunday to avoid getting swept at their ballpark.
Let’s take a look at this opening day match-up and make our predictions:
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees got their 2020 season off to a great start when they won their opening series against the defending World Series champions Washington Nationals 2-1 on the road. The Yankees clinched the series with a 3-2 win on Sunday despite Washington taking the early 2-0 lead in that game. Gleiber Torres and Luke Voit homered to tie the game and Torres capped off his excellent night with an RBI in the 8th inning that proved to be the game-winner for the Yankees.
Left-hander J.A. Happ will take the mound for the Yankees on Monday. The 37-year old was 12-8 with an ERA of 4.90 and a WHIP of 1.30 last season. Happ stuck out 140 hitters but allowed a career-high 34 home runs during the 2019 season. Happ was impressive in Spring Training though as he registered an ERA of 1.38 in 13 total innings with only one homer conceded.
Giancarlo Stanton is off to a good start with a batting average of .444, OBP of .545, and SLG of 1.22. He also has two home runs in their first three games and four RBIs earned this season. Glyber Torres has contributed two RBIs and one homer for New York while Aaron Judge is just 2-12 to start the season. The Yankees had an ERA of 6.92, a WHIP of 1.23, and a BAA of 2.64 against the Nationals.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies look to bounce back after a disappointing opening series where they dropped two of their first three home games to the Miami Marlins. Philly was the betting favorite in all three games but Miami stole the series from them. The Marlins clinched the series with an 11-6 win on Sunday. The Phillies took a quick 4-0 lead but allowed four runs in the top of the second inning and faltered the rest of the way. Bryce Harper drilled a two-run homer in the loss.
Jake Arrieta gets the call to open for the Phillies on Monday. The 34-year old right-hander missed the second half of the 2019 season with an injury and he will be making his first start since August of last year. Arrieta was 8-8 with an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1,47 in 2019. He struck out a total of 110 hitters while starting in a total of 24 games. Arrieta says that his elbow is fine and that he is looking forward to a big year in the final season of his contract. Arrieta has a career-record of 106-75 in 10 MLB seasons played.
Didi Gregorius leads the team with a batting average of .364. Gregorius also has an OBP of .462 and a slugging percentage of .909. Second baseman Phil Gosselin leads the team with a total of two home runs with three RBIs while Bryce Harper also has three RBIs and Sunday’s home run to his credit. The Phillies had an ERA of 3.0 and a BAA of .238 during their opening series against the Marlins.
Who Wins?
The Yankees are 2-1 SU to start the shortened 2020 season. They are 2-1 SU in three road games played so far. New York is also 4-2 SU in their last six games played in the month of July. The Phillies are 1-2 SU to start their season and 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall. Philadelphia is 1-2 SU in three home games played so far and they are 7-13 SU in their last 20 Monday games. Head to head, the Yankees have won three out of the last four meetings between these two teams. New York is also 6-2 SU in their last eight road games in Washington.
The Yankees probably have the most dangerous lineup in MLB. They are coming off a series win on the road against the current World Series champions. On the other hand, the Phillies lost their opening series to a team that has been projected as the cellar dwellers of the NL East, and that lackluster display won’t work against a powerhouse like the Yankees. Happ didn’t have a great year in 2019 but he looked good in Spring Training and should be good to go here. Arrieta is coming off a season-ending injury so I think that the Yankees are the good play here.
Prediction: New York Yankees (-132)
Other Bets to Make
New York is 1-2 ATS in three games played this season. They are 1-2 ATS in three road games played so far. Philadelphia is also 1-2 ATS in their three games played this year. The Phillies are 1-2 ATS in three home games played this season.
Yankees
-1.5 (+100)
Phillies
+1.5 (-120)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/27/2020
I’m not expecting Happ to deliver a masterful effort here and I think that the Phillies are going to get runs in this game. However, the Yankees have a very impressive offensive team and this is a tough first assignment for Arrieta back from injury. I don’t think the score will be that close.
Prediction: New York Yankees -1.5 (+100)
The total has gone under in two out of the three games played by the Yankees this season. The under is 7-3 in their last 10 games played overall and the total has gone under in four out of their last five games played against the National League. The under is also 1-2 in Philly’s three games played this season. The total has gone under in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 15 games against the American League and the under is also 4-1 in their last five games against the American League East. Head to head, the under is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams.
Over 10.5
-107
Under 10.5
-113
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/27/2020
Neither starting pitcher is expected to turn in a classic on Monday night. Happ had issues with allowing home runs last season and that is something that Bryce Harper should take advantage of in this game. Arrieta is coming off a season-ending injury and his first game back is against the deadliest lineup in baseball. Their bullpen could be short-handed on Monday and they went way over the total in their last assignment.
Prediction: Under 10.5
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