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The Los Angeles Chargers head to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the New Orleans Saints in week 5’s edition of Monday Night Football on October 12, 2020.
The Chargers are coming off a 38-31 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their last outing while the Saints snapped a two-game losing streak the last time out with a 35-29 win over the Detroit Lions. The Chargers lead their all-time head to head series with a record of 7-5. New Orleans has won the last three meetings between these two teams including a 35-34 road win in their most recent encounter held on October 2, 2016.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers gave their all against Tom Brady and his Buccaneers yet despite Justin Herbert throwing for 290 yards with three scores, it wasn’t enough to topple the Bucs who walked away with a 38-31 win in Tampa Bay. With the loss, the Chargers fell to 1-3 on the season.
Herbert has completed 77-107 passes for 931 yards five touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has been sacked six times this season and has scrambled for a total of 47 yards with one rushing touchdown. Los Angeles five receivers who have caught at least 100 yards this season. Keenan Allen leads the receiving corps with 32 catches for 327 yards with one touchdown. Hunter Henry also has 18 catches for 245 receiving yards. With Austin Ekeler hurt, the Chargers will rely on Joshua Kelly who has rushed for 174 yards with one touchdown on 52 carries.
The Los Angeles passing offense is averaging 284 yards per game and they are also averaging 125 rushing yards per contest. The Chargers defense has allowed 385.5 total yards of offense per game and 23.8 points per contest. 274.8 of those yards are through the air and they also have forced six sacks with two interceptions and a pick-six.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints snapped a two-game losing streak the last time out, beating the Detroit Lions 35-29. New Orleans came back from a 14-0 deficit to score the next 35 points in the game and hang on to the lead using a running attack that produced 164 yards in 46 carries.
Drew Brees has completed 92 out of 129 passes for 1,006 passing yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. Brew has been sacked twice this year. Running back Alvin Kamara has been a swiss knife, leading the team in rushing with 236 rushings yards with four touchdowns on 50 attempts while also catching 30 passes for 321 yards with three scores. Tre-Quan Smith caught two TD passes last week and has a total of 186 receiving yards on 14 catches. Emmanuel Sanders has caught 14 passes for 182 yards with two scores. However, Jared Cook is questionable for this contest. Latavius Murray has rushed for 144 yards on 44 carries with two rushing touchdowns.
The New Orleans passing game is averaging 261 yards per outing and they are rushing for 97.5 yards per contest. The Saints defense is allowing opponents to score an average of 30.8 points per game and 350.5 of total offense per contest. New Orleans is allowing 253 yards through the air and their defense has produced three interceptions, 10 sacks, and one pick-six this season.
Who Wins?
The Chargers are 1-6 SU in their last seven games played. Los Angeles is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games played against the NFC South division. New Orleans is 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played. The Saints are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against the AFC. Head to head, Saints are 4-2 SU in their last 10 games played. New Orleans is 1-4 SU in their last five home games against Los Angeles.
Los Angeles will be without Austin Ekeler for at least a month after he hyperextended his knee and suffered a hamstring injury during their 38-31 loss to Tampa Bay. Ekeler is averaging five yards per carry this year and has also 17 catches for 144 yards. Without Ekeler, there will be pressure on Justin Herbert who is without Mike Williams and two starting linemen.
Michael Thomas could miss his fourth straight games for the Saints while right end Jared Cook, defensive end Marcus Davenport plus defensive backs Janoris Jenkins and Marshawn Lattimore are listed as questionable. New Orleans will have to overcome adversity again on Monday just as they did in their last game against the Lions.
I think that the Saints have enough firepower to win this game though, but it won’t be easy. The Chargers are a team that is tough to put away. They will hang around this game and give themselves a chance to win in the end. However, I like the home team to pull off a close win here.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Other Bets To Make
Los Angeles is 2-1-1 ATS in their four games played this season. The Chargers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games played in October. New Orleans is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games played. The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played at home and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played in October. Head to head, the Saints are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played against the Chargers.
Chargers
+7 (-120)
Saints
-7 (+100)
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/12/2020
The Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as the betting underdogs while the Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games played as home favorites. The Saints’ offense isn’t explosive enough to blow out their opposition right now. The Saints might do enough to win this game but the Chargers have played well against the spread as they do a good job of staying in the game. I expect Los Angeles to keep this one close.
Prediction: Chargers +7
The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played by the Chargers. The over is 5-1 in their last six games played on the road. The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by the Saints. The over is 8-1 in their last nine Week 5 games, 6-2 in their last eight Monday games. Head to head, the total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by these two teams.
Over
50 (-110)
Under
50 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 10/12/2020
Both these teams have a dynamic offense but the Saints offense is beaten up right now and have to depend much on Kamara. If that happens, they are going to take a lot of time off the clock which could lead to a low-scoring game. These teams also play good defense so I’m not expecting a Monday night shoot out.
Prediction: Under 50
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