North Carolina Tar Heels vs Kansas Jayhawks 04/04/2022 NCAAB Odds and Prediction

No. 1 Kansas takes on No. 8 seed North Carolina in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament championship game on Monday, April 4, 2022, at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

The Tar Heels continued their underdog run with an impressive 81-77 Final Four win against the Duke Blue Devils in what was head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last game. North Carolina rookie head coach Hubert Davis will now look to lead North Carolina to their seventh NCAA men’s basketball title. Guard Caleb Love waxed hot with 28 points while star big man Armando Bacot scored 11 points and pulled down 21 rebounds to set a new ACC record with 30 double-doubles in a single season.

The Jayhawks advanced to the title game with a wire-to-wire 81-65 win over the Villanova Wildcats in the Final Four. Kansas will be looking to win its fourth NCAA title, second under head coach Bill Self, and its first since 2008. Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack combined to score 46 points against Villanova and the two are expected to lead Kansas in the biggest game of the season.

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina Tar Heels sent Mike Krzyzewski to retirement with one of his toughest losses ever. Caleb Love hit a key three-pointer with 25 seconds left and made three late free throws which sealed North Carolina’s 81-77 upset win over Duke on Saturday. Love finished with 28 points while RJ Davis added 18 points.

North Carolina will be playing in its 12th title game overall and for the third time in the last six seasons. The Tar Heels have lost just thrice in their last 20 games played overall. They also improved to 8-1 this season when Love, Davis, and Manek each make more than one three-pointer in a game. North Carolina is also 13-0 this season and 15-0 in the last two seasons when Love scores 20 or more points in a game, and 9-1 when playing at the Superdome.

The 6-10 Bacot is coming off a record-setting performance in the semifinals with 21 rebounds and is averaging 16.3 points and 13 rebounds per game for the Tar Heels. Love is also putting up 16.3 points per game and will be a big headache for Kansas from the perimeter. Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek is an excellent third scoring option at 15.2 points per game while RJ Davis and Leaky Black are averaging 13.5 and 5.0 points per game, respectively.

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas Jayhawks advanced to the 2022 NCAA men’s basketball title game with an 81-65 wire-to-wire win over the Villanova Wildcats on Saturday. David McCormack was unstoppable inside the paint with 25 points and 9 rebounds while Ochai Agbaji made six of seven three-pointers for 21 points to lead Kansas to victory.

The Jayhawks held the Wildcats to 38.6% shooting from the field on Saturday and improved to 31-3 when holding their opponents to below 50% FG shooting. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks shot 29-54 from the floor or 53.7% are 17-2 this season when shooting better than .500. Kansas is also 26-1 this campaign when shooting better than their opponents. The Jayhawks are also 15-0 when scoring at least 80 points in a game this season.

Agbaji leads Kansas in scoring with 18.9 points per game and is coming off his best shooting night of the Tournament against Villanova in the Final Four. Christian Braun is averaging 14.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game while Jalen Wilson is contributing 11.2 points per contest. David McCormack had a big game against Villanova at the post and is averaging 10.5 points per game. Dajuan Harris and Remy Martin have combined to average 14.3 points per game while splitting point guard duties.

Who Wins?

The Tar Heels are 5-0 SU in their last five games played. North Carolina is 4-1 SU in their last five games played on April, 6-4 SU in 10 games played in a neutral venue, 15-1 SU when playing in New Orleans, and 6-1 SU in seven tournament games played in New Orleans.

The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played. Kansas is 12-1 SU in 13 games played at a neutral venue, 4-5 SU in nine tournament games played in New Orleans and 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Head to head, Kansas is 3-1 SU in their last four games played against North Carolina. However, these teams have not played since March 24, 2013.

Manek has experience playing against Kansas because of his days with Oklahoma and his familiarity with the Jayhawks’ style could help the Tar Heels prepare for this short-notice matchup. He is UNC’s second-leading scorer and could be in for a big night against a familiar foe.

On the other hand, Kansas will look to exploit Armando Bacot who suffered an ankle injury during the Duke game. Although Bacot was able to continue playing that game, he may not be 100% here and that should open opportunities for David McCormack who is coming off a big game against Villanova. A 100% Bacot will make McCormack’s night difficult but anything less than that would give Kansas the advantage.

Ochai Agbaji is coming off a huge game for Kansas and I think that the game could go down to whoever between Agbaji and Caleb Love can go off for his squad. If Love and Agbaji play like they did last Saturday, we could end up watching two heavyweights throwing haymakers at each other.

If that’s the case, the performances of Remy Martin and RJ Davis will be crucial for their teams. Martin is coming off a poor outing but he’s been huge for the Jayhawks in the other tournament games. The Tar Heels meanwhile go from good to elite when Davis performs well along with Love and Manek.

You could go on and on and make a case for both teams. Having said that, I like UNC here. They just beat a more talented Duke team and have been slaying giants in the tournament. They won’t be in awe against a no. 1 team like Kansas. I won’t blame you if you take the favorites but at plus money and with the momentum they are carrying from Saturday’s big win, I’m going with the Tar Heels.

Prediction: North Carolina

Other Bets to Make

North Carolina is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS win, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a straight up win, 5-0 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA tournament games played, 5-0 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday games.

Kansas is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games played, 5-1 ATS in their last six games after an ATS win, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after a straight up win, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as betting favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as betting favorites playing in a neutral venue, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played in a neutral venue.

Head to head, Kansas is 3-1 ATS in their last four games played against North Carolina.

The Tar Heels are red hot with five covers in five wins at the tournament. The Jayhawks have won their last two games by 16 points but remember they failed to cover against Creighton and Providence earlier in the tournament. Kansas was just a -6.5 favorite against the Friars but beat them by six points. So although the Jayhawks looked dominant in their last couple of games, the Tar Heels have been more consistent.

On paper, it looks like the Jayhawks have the advantage here because they are the better defensive team. However, this isn’t the same Tar Heels team that we saw most of the season. UNC has blossomed into a legit contender and its wins over higher-ranked teams in the tournament are proof of that.

Caleb Love and RJ Davis will challenge Kansas’ strong perimeter defense while Brady Manek should have a good game, having seen this Jayhawks defense before. If Armando Bacot can buck his injury and play near 100%, it’s going to be tough to beat these Tar Heels. I’m picking UNC to win outright but if you don’t agree with me on that one, you have to take them at +4.5 points hee.

Prediction: North Carolina +4

The total has gone over in 12 out of the last 18 games played by the Tar Heels. The over is 7-1 in their last eight games played against an opponent from the Big 12, 5-1 in their last six games as a betting underdog in a neutral venue, 4-1 in their last five NCAA tournament games as betting underdogs, 6-2 in their last eight games as betting underdogs, and 5-2 in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

The total has gone over in six out of the Jayhawks’ last eight games after an ATS win. The over is 6-1-1 in their last eight Monday games, 7-3 in their last 10 games in a neutral venue against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 16-4 in their last 20 games when playing as the “home” team, and 4-2 in their last six games against an opponent from the Atlantic Coast Conference.

These are two teams that don’t waste too much time before putting up a shot. Likewise, these teams like to play in transition with UNC ranking 40th in adjusted tempo and Kansas 65th in that department.

The Tar Heels and Jayhawks are two teams that average over 78 points per game. UNC shoots tons of threes and is converting them at a 37% accuracy. Meanwhile, Kansas is an efficient team, shooting 48% from the floor. The Jayhawks have a pretty good defensive unit but with an elite offense in front of them, Kansas will respond with more offense than defense. This should be a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Over 151.5

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