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Norwich City hosts Southampton as the two sides return from the three-month break forced by the coronavirus pandemic.
The hosts are sitting six points from safety while the Saints make the trip to Carrow road holding a seven-point edge over the league’s bottom three teams following a poor run. Southampton had a strong start to 2020 with a 13-point haul during a five-game stretch beginning mid-January. But since then, they have dropped five out of seven and now have work to do to avoid a relegation battle.
Norwich City
Norwich City is currently dead last in the English Premier League standings with 21 points earned from five wins, six draws, and 18 losses. The Canaries won two out of their last three matches overall, including a victory over the Tottenham Hotspur in the English FA Cup. But despite an improving form, they are still six points from getting out of the danger zone.
In their last assignment before the break, Norwich City suffered a 0-1 defeat at the hands of Sheffield United. Norwich City controlled 58% of ball possession and had more shots on goal 5-4 but Billy Sharp’s goal in the 36th minute proved to be the difference-maker for Sheffield United.
Teemu Pukki leads Norwich City with a total of 11 goals scored this season. Todd Cantwell has six goals while Kenny McLean has scored once. Emiliano Buendia is scoreless this term but he leads Norwich City with a total of seven assists this season. Pukki has three assists while Cantwell has two assists as well.
The Canaries have scored only 25 goals this season, 19th in the Premier League. They have allowed their opponents to score a total of 52 goals this term and they are ranked 18th in assists with 17 on the year. Norwich City has a -20 goal difference this season.
Southampton
Southampton is in 14th place in the current EPL table with a total of 34 points from 10 wins, 4 draws, and 15 losses. Before the break, the team lost four out of its last five assignments, with their only win during that period against lowly Aston Villa. Right now, they are way above the relegation zone but if they continue this downward trend, anything can still happen with still plenty of football left to play in the season.
In their last match, the Saints dropped a 0-1 contest to Newcastle. Southampton lost Moussa Djenepo in the 28th minute due to a reckless challenge and their opponents took advantage to score the winning goal in the 79th minute. Southampton got outplayed by Newcastle which controlled 62% of the possession time while getting more shots on goal 7-3.
Danny Ings leads the Saints with a total of 15 goals this season. James Ward-Prowse and Nathan Redmond have netted four and three times, respectively. Prowse and Jack Stephens lead the team with three assists each while Che Adams has two assists for Southampton.
Southampton has conceded 52 goals this season, the same number as Norwich City has allowed this term. The Saints are ranked 10th in England is scoring with a total of 35 goals this term and they have a total of 20 assists this year. They are also ranked 16th in goal difference at -17.
Who Wins?
Norwich will have Emiliano Buendia back after he sat out the game at Bramall Lane due to a muscular injury. Meanwhile, Christopher Zimmermann is expected to be among the replacements despite returning to the squad in their last fixture.
Southampton will be without winger Djenepo will start serving a three-match ban for picking up successive red cards against Newcastle. Nathan Redmond is also out due to injury but Stuart Armstrong is back in action after suffering a concussion. Kyle Walker-Peters is also expected to feature in the starting XI in place of Yan Valery.
In the last head to head match between these two teams, Southampton defeated Norwich City 2-1 in December 2019. Norwich City controlled the possession time but it was Southampton who had more shots on goal. Danny Ings and Ryan Bertrand netted in the first half to give Southampton the quick 2-0 lead while Teemu Pukki scored in the 65th minute to put Norwich City on board.
If this game was played with fans, I would easily pick Norwich City here because they play Southampton well in front of their fans but since that isn’t happening on Friday because of the coronavirus pandemic restrictions, the home team doesn’t have that home pitch advantage here.
Given that Norwich City needs a good start to give themselves a shot at returning to the Premier League next year, I expect them to be the hungrier team here. Southampton’s form before the break was alarming but the time away should have given them their bearings back. However, with not much to play for, there could be a letdown.
I think we will have a close game here and it will be hotly contested. There will be rust on both ends of the field for both teams and this will be a low scoring game. I won’t be surprised if Norwich City pulls off the upset but I’m leaning towards a draw here given that this is their first match in three months.
Prediction: Draw (+248)
Alternate Bet
Daniel Farke’s men were an excellent attacking team in the Championship last season as they scored a total of 93 goals on their way to the title. However, they have struggled to score in the top flight as Norwich City only has 25 goals this season. Four out of their last five matches have yielded under 2.5 goals while their last four trips to Canary Road have also produced under 2.5 goals. It’s worth noting that this is the first game back for both teams and I expect some rust form these two sides.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (+100)
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