Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Game 1 06/07/2021 NBA Odds, Preview, and Predictions

The Denver Nuggets visit the Phoenix Suns in Game 1 of their second-round playoff series.

Denver survived Dame Time in the first round of the playoffs, beating the Portland Trail Blazers in six games despite playing without Jamal Murray and Will Barton Nikola Jokic took charge but got help from the likes of Michael Porter Jr., Monte Morris, and Austin Rivers. The Suns took out the defending champions Los Angeles Lakers in six games behind a red-hot Devin Booker and the solid performance of Deandre Ayton. Chris Paul played with a shoulder injury but Cameron Payne stepped up for the Suns’ backcourt.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic showed why he is the MVP odds on favorite as he led the Nuggets to a six-game series win over the Blazers. The Joker averaged 33 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game and had five 30-point games against Portland.

But Jokic didn’t do it by himself. He got plenty of help from Michael Porter Jr. who scored 25 or more points in three games while averaging 18.8 points per game against Portland. Porter has increased his scoring production since Murray’s injury.

Denver also got a big lift from reserve guards Austin Rivers, Monte Morris, and Facu Campazzo as they continue to survive without the injured Jamal Murray. The Nuggets are also without the athletic Will Barton since April 23rd.

Phoenix Suns

After a tense start to their first playoff appearance in the Devin Booker era, the Suns settled down nicely and finished off the defending champions Los Angeles Lakers with three straight wins. Phoenix destroyed the Lakers by 30 points in Game 5 and then led by as much as 29 in Game 6 before settling with a double-digit win.

Devin Booker exploded in the series, averaging 29.7 points per game including a massive 47-point explosion in Game 6. Deandre Ayton also had an impressive series, averaging in double-double at 15.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.

The Suns’ fate will depend heavily on how healthy Chris Paul will be for this series. Paul suffered a shoulder injury in the previous round but with enough rest, he was effective in Game 6.

Who Wins?

Denver is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Nuggets are 5-2 SU in their last seven games played on the road. Phoenix is 7-2 SU in their last nine games played. The Suns are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games played at home.

Head to head, the Nuggets are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Suns. Phoenix is also just 1-9 SU in their last 10 home games against Denver.

The Suns have to be feeling good about themselves after eliminating the defending NBA champions. Phoenix played like an elite team in Games 5 and 6. If they can keep the momentum going, they are going to be hard to stop, especially when Devin Booker is shooting the lights out.

While I think that Denver’s makeshift backcourt has exceeded expectations, I expect them to have a tough matchup against the Suns. Devin Booker is feeling it and he should continue to be lights out, especially at home. Chris Paul’s shoulder won’t be 100% but a few days of rest proved he can return to form. Cameron Payne has also blossomed into a legit contributor for the Suns.

Denver is going to rely much on Nikola Jokic once again. But even he has a tough matchup against Deandre Ayton. Michael Porter Jr. has to come up big if Denver is to have a chance but even if he has a big game, Denver’s depth may not match Phoenix’s lineup from top to bottom. Give me the home team to feed off their crowd and win Game 1.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns

Other Bets To Make

Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference semifinals games, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Monday games, and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 playoff games as underdogs. However, Denver is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on three days rest.

Phoenix is 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference semifinals games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as playoff favorites, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after a straight-up win and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against an opponent with a winning road record.

Head to head, Denver is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings against the Suns. The Nuggets are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in Phoenix.

Without Jamal Murray and Will Barton, the Nuggets struggled against a Portland team with a solid backcourt led by Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They are going to have the same problem in Phoenix with Devin Booker and Chris Paul, only that Chris Paul will probably do better than McCollum did in their series.

Deandre Ayton could give defensive issues for Nikola Jokic, and the Suns may be too much to handle for the Nuggets. Phoenix is coming off two blowout wins over the Lakers. I expect the momentum to carry over in this game.

Prediction: Suns -4.5

The total has gone over in six out of the last seven games played by the Nuggets. Denver has seen the total go over in five out of their last six games as underdogs. The over is also 6-0-2 in their last eight conference semifinals games, 5-1 in their last six playoff games as underdogs, and 10-3-1 in their last 14 Monday games.

The over is 11-5 in the last 16 games played by the Suns, 4-1 in their last five conference semifinals games 3-0-1 in their last four games, 9-3 in their last 12 games as favorites, 23-9-1 in their last 33 games after an ATS win. The total has gone over in their last four Monday games.

Head to head, the over is 5-1 in their last six meetings The total has gone over in each of their last four meetings in Phoenix.

These teams have combined to score an average of 224.3 points per game in their last 10 meetings, and 232.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. Denver has allowed 115 or more points in six out of their last seven games played. Phoenix had a low-scoring series against the Lakers’ top-rated defense but averaged 114 points per game in the last two games of the series. I think this will be a high-scoring game, and series.

Prediction: Over 219.5

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