Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers 06/03/2021 NBA Playoffs Betting Prediction

The Denver Nuggets travel to the Moda Center on Thursday night to try and finish off the Portland Trail Blazers in their first-round series.

Denver took a 3-2 lead when it survived a 55-point onslaught by Damian Lillard in Game 5. With the win, the Nuggets are one win away from advancing to the second round. However, the Blazers won’t go down easily and will fight to the end just like they did in Game 5. Portland blew out Denver in the last game at this building so expect the home team to come out smoking once again.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets were lucky enough to survive Damian Lillard’s massive 55-point Game 5 but they didn’t take the lead for good until just over a minute to go in the second overtime period when Michael Porter Jr. drilled a corner three.

Nikola Jokkic had another big game with 38 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists but he also needed 26 points from Porter and a playoff career-high 28 from Monte Morris. Austin Rivers continues to contribute as he scored 18 points on 5-10 shooting, including 4-8 from deep.

Denver played much better team basketball with 33 assists while committing just 11 turnovers during the game. The Nuggets also controlled the boards 52-45 while shooting 48.1% from the floor and 45.5% from deep.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Nuggets

+175

Blazers

-205

Odds from BetOnline as of 06/03/2021

Portland Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers missed out on a golden opportunity to steal one in Denver. Damian Lillard single-handedly forced the game to overtime and a second overtime but his teammates could not hit the shots when he needed them most. Now the Nuggets are facing elimination and need to win at home to keep their season alive.

Lillard erupted for 55 points and a playoff record of 12 three-pointers in Game 5 but C.J. McCollum and Robert Covington missed crucial baskets down the stretch that cost the Blazers the game. Covington scored 19 points and McCollum added 18 but the latter shot just 7-22 from the floor.

Portland beat Denver in fastbreak points 17-5 and matched them in terms of points in the paint production with 42. Denver also shot the ball well from three-point distance at 43.8% and was decent from the field at 45.6%. However, the breaks of the game went the Nuggets way and now the Blazers have to fight for their playoff lives.

Who Wins?

Denver is 12-6 SU in their last 18 games played. The Nuggets are 23-15 SU in 38 road games played this season. Portland is 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played. The Blazers are 5-1 SU in their last six games played at home. Head to head, the Nuggets have won six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

The Nuggets barely survived Game 5 as Dame put on a show. Jokic was his usual MVP self while Michael Porter Jr. came up big in the clutch. But the big difference maker for Denver was Monte Morris who scored a playoff career-high 28 points ff the bench. Still, they struggled to beat a Portland team that only had one source of consistent offense.

Damian Lillard is coming off one of the greatest individual playoff performances of all time. It was just a pity that his teammates couldn’t lend him a hand when the Denver defense swarmed on him in the second OT period. If that kind of letdown won’t motivate the rest of the Blazers, then nothing will. That said, I think the team is going to bounce back with a big performance with their season on the line.

I don’t expect a repeat performance from Lillard. But like the last game here, Portland still won even if Lillard only had 10 points. This is the most competitive first round series in the 2021 NBA playoffs and I won’t be surprised if it’s headed to a Game 7.

Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

Other Bets to Make

Denver is 20-27 ATS in 47 games against the Western Conference this season, including 11-12 ATS in 23 road games against their West rivals. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 3-6 ATS in their last nine head to head games against Portland.

The Blazers are 7-3 ATS as the betting favorites, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Thursday games played at home, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games played overall. Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning percentage of at least .600, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one day rest.

What are the Spread Odds?

Nuggets

+5 (-110)

Blazers

-5 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 06/03/2021

With the Blazers facing elimination, expect the Moda Center to be fully energized. This has been a well-fought series by both clubs and with Jamal Murray injured, they look to be so even in many ways. With how the momentum has swayed from one team to the other, I think this series is going to a Game 7. Both teams should be motivated to do the job but I think the Blazers will have extra motivation after a massive let down by the supporting cast in Game 5. Portland has more motivation and has the home-court advantage. I’ll eat the reasonable chalk here.

Prediction: Blazers -5

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Nuggets. Denver has seen the total go over in five out of their last six games against an opponent with a winning record. The over is also 4-1 in their last five playoff games as the betting underdog, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 4-1 in their last five conference quarterfinals games.

The over is 5-1 in the Blazers’ last six games played. The total has gone over in six out of their last seven conference quarterfinals games, 5-1 in their last six games after scoring more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 5-2 in their last seven playoff games as betting favorites.

Head to head, the total has gone under in five out of the last six meetings between these two teams. The over is also 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Portland.

Both teams were strong “over” teams during the regular season with each team at least hitting the over in 60% of their games when playing an opponent with equal rest. This series has been a high-scoring one with the total going over in four out of the five games played so far, including a massive 287 total in the previous game. Despite Murray’s absence, the Nuggets can match the Blazers in firepower. Lillard is a scoring machine and he sets the tone for this high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Over 227.5

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