Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors 04/27/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Denver Nuggets try to keep their season alive when they visit the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center on Wednesday night.

Denver staved off elimination in Game 4 by defeating the Warriors 126-121, taking one of two games played at their home court. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic had another big game to lead the Nuggets who are looking to become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series.

Meanwhile, the Warriors will attempt to advance to the second round and complete the “gentleman’s sweep”. Golden State had a chance to eliminate the Nuggets in Game 4 but their comeback came up short. Still, the Dubs have a commanding 3-1 lead and hope to close out the series in front of their fans on Wednesday night.

Denver Nuggets

Denver was unable to match Golden State’s offensive firepower in the first three games of the series but in Game 4, they got 24 points from Monte Morris and 21 points from Aaron Godron to help Nikola Jokic’s game-high 37 points. The Nuggets were off to a good start and led by 11 at the break then never looked back.

The Nuggets were a very good road team during the regular season at 25-16 SU but they were blown out in the first two games of this series in Golden State. Jokic has been averaging over 30 points per game in this series but the absence of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. has been felt in the postseason. In order to win Game 5, the Nuggets need Morris and Gordon to provide Jokic the needed support.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State had a chance to finish the series in Game 4 but the Nuggets played their best basketball in the series and prevented the sweep. However, no team has come back from a 0-3 series deficit to win it. The Dubs though want to win it at home so they can get some rest and prepare for the next round. Steph Curry had 33 and Klay Thompson added 32 but Jordan Poole was limited to only 11 points in Game 5.

The Dubs were 1-3 SU against the Nuggets during the regular season but remember that the Warriors dealt with so many injuries before the playoffs. But now Golden State is healthy, we are seeing an explosive offensive display in the postseason. The Dubs are shooting over 53% from the field and 42% from behind the three-point arc in the series and if Poole gets it going again in Game 5, Denver’s season could be over tomorrow night.

Who Wins?

Denver is 1-4 SU in their last five games played. The Nuggets are 2-2 SU in their last four games played on the road, 14-14 SU in their last 28 games against the Western Conference, and 2-5 SU in their last seven April games.

Golden State is 8-1 SU in their last nine games played. The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home, 21-7 SU in their last 28 home games against the Western Conference, and 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Northwest Division.

The Nuggets won Game 4 behind a second straight 37-point performance from Nikola Jokic who is averaging 31.3 points, 11. 8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in the series. If the Nuggets want to win, Jokic must continue to carry the heavy load.

Denver also got a huge lift from Monte Morris in Game 4. Morris made five of seven three-point attempts and finished with 24 points after averaging only 10.7 points per game in the previous three games of the series. Should Denver want to replicate their Game 4 success, they need Morris to step up once again.

The Warriors got only 11 points from Jordan Poole in Game 4 but overall, Poole has been excellent in the series. If he gets his game back in Game 5, Denver is in trouble again. The Dubs won Games 1 and 2 by an average margin of 18 points and with this game scheduled to be played at Chase Center, it’s not wrong to expect another explosive performance from the Warriors.

Given Poole’s Game 4 performance, it won’t be a surprise to see Steph Curry get his old starting job back. Although he scored 33 in Game 4, it would be different if Curry starts unloading the points in the opening quarter. If the Warriors can get to a fast start, they may be able to put the game away early.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Other Bets to Make

The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. Denver is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the Pacific Division, 4-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games played against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on two days rest, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as playoff underdogs, 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a straight-up win.

The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played. Golden State is 5-0 ATS in their last five games played at home, 5-1 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their previous game, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites, 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as playoff favorites, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on 2 days rest, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites, and 32-13 ATS in their last 45 conference quarterfinals games.

Golden State has been dominant at home this season and in the first two games of this series, they won by 16 and 20 points, respectively. The last two games in Denver were mo competitive but the Dubs are 25-16-2 ATS at home this season and 22-16-2 ATS as home favorites. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 22-21 ATS on the road this season.

Jordan Poole had his worst game of the series with only 11 in Game 4 and given how he played in the previous three games, he’s due for a bounce-back performance in Game 5 which won’t be hard to do since it will be played at the Chase Center. The Splash Brothers each scored 30+ in Game 4 and if they keep that up and Poole gets his game going again, it’s going to be vacation time for the Nuggets.

Prediction: Warriors -9

The total has gone over in each of the last five games played by the Nuggets. The over is 5-0 in Denver’s last five games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five games as betting underdogs, 3-0-1 in their last four games when playing on two days rest, and 4-0 in their last four road games against an opponent with a home winning record better than .600,

The over is also 4-0 in the Nuggets’ last four games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 7-1-1 in their last nine games after an ATS win, 4-1 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 6-2 in their last eight games after a straight-up win, 3-1-1 in their last five Wednesday games, 21-8 in their last 29 Conference quarterfinals games, and 40-18-2 in their last 60 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game.

The total has gone over in the last five games played by Golden State. The over is 4-0 in the Warriors’ last five games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores and allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five games as betting favorites, 5-0 in their last five games as playoff betting favorites, 6-0 in their last six Conference quarterfinals games, and 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

The total has also gone over in 11 out of the Warriors’ last 16 games after an ATS loss, 6-1 in their last seven April games, and 6-1 in their last seven games against an opponent from the Western Conference.

Head to head, the over is 4-0 in the last four games between these two teams. The total has gone over in 29 out of the last 43 meetings in Golden State.

The total has gone over in each of the first four games of this series with the teams averaging a combined 235 points per game. The Dubs were one of the best defensive teams during the regular season but against an undermanned Denver team, the Warriors have let their explosive offense do the damage in the series and the Nuggets have been unable to keep pace.

Golden State has scored at least 121 points in three out of the first four games of this series and with a 3-1 lead, I don’t think Steve Kerr will change his game plan. The Nuggets were able to win Game 4 behind another big night from Jokic but Denver still allowed the Dubs to score 121 points in that game. This one isn’t going to be any different from the first four games of the series.

Prediction: Over 226

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