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The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Michigan State Spartans in a Big Ten Conference showdown on Saturday, 11/10/18, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan.
The Buckeyes rebounded from their first defeat of the season with a 36-31 win over Nebraska while the Spartans are fresh off a 24-3 win over Maryland in their last outing. Both these teams are still in contention to win the Big Ten title so this should be a good game to bet on.
Not So Reliable Defense
Defense hasn’t been a strong suit for the Ohio State this season. The Buckeyes have yielded 23.4 points per game to their opponents this season while allowing them to convert 32% of their third downs and 50% of their fourth downs. Ohio State has also allowed their foes to score 88% of their red zone opportunities. Last week, that defense allowed 450 yards against Nebraska but still, the Buckeyes pulled off the win because of their offense.
Ohio State vs Michigan State 11/10/18
Moneyline Odds: Ohio State -170, Michigan State +150
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 11/7/18
Not So Good Offense
Michigan State’s calling card this season has been its defense. The Spartans’ stingy play on that side of the field has forced an NCAA 14th best 12 interceptions this season with one of those picks converted to a touchdown. Michigan State also owns the best rush defense in the country as it allows opponents to rush 71.7 yards per game. With opponents having a hard time moving the ball on the ground against them, the Spartans have allowed just 19 points per game this season.
Who Wins?
Ohio State has taken seven out of the last ten meetings between these two teams, including two out of the last three. The Buckeyes are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games played and 21-4 SU in their last 25 road games. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games played and 7-2 in their last 9 games at home. Head to head, Ohio State is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Michigan State and 6-1 SU in their last seven road games versus the Spartans.
That rush defense won’t be a factor against the Buckeyes who aren’t known to run the football well anyway. Instead, Ohio State’s offense has relied much on their passing game which produces the third most passing yards per game in college football. Against a Michigan State pass defense that’s ranked only 98th in college football, The Buckeyes have the edge here. Historically, Ohio State has also done well on the road against the Spartans, so home field shouldn’t be a big issues as well. In a game where the spread is small, I also like picking good offense over good defense so I’m going with the Buckeyes here.
We’re picking the Ohio State Buckeyes to beat the Michigan State Spartans on 11/10/18.
Other Bets To Make
Ohio State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on the road. Michigan State is 4-5 ATS in 9 games played this season and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played at their home field. Head to head, the Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road against the Spartans. The Buckeyes are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating at least 450 yards of offense in their previous game. The Spartans are also just 1-4 in their last five games after an SU win.
Ohio State vs Michigan State 11/10/18
Spread Odds: Ohio State -3.5 (-107), Michigan State +3.5 (-113)
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 11/7/18
The Buckeyes have won six straight games on the road against the Spartans with an average winning margin of 16.0 points.Haskins has been tearing the opposing defenses apart with his passing He leads the nation (tied) with 32 touchdowns and is third in passing yards at 3,053. He should have a great game against the Spartans’ 98th ranked pass defense.
Prediction Ohio State -3.5
The total has gone under in four out of the last five games of Ohio State. However, the over is 7-2 in the Buckeyes’ last 9 road games. On the other side, the under is 4-1 in the last five games of Michigan State. Head to head, the total has gone under in five out of the last seven games between these teams.
Ohio State vs Michigan State 11/10/18
Over/Under Odds: Over 52.5 +105, Under 52.5 -125
Odds from Betonline.ag as of 11/7/18
The total has gone under in the last three games between the Buckeyes and Spartans with an average score of 38.33. The total has also gone under in Michigan State’s last four games with an average score of 32.25. The Spartans score the 19th fewest points in FBS at 23.4 points per game but allow only 19 points per game, 16th best in the nation. The Buckeyes’ troubles with running the ball this season are well documented and with the Spartans being the top rushing defense team in college football, the under is a good pick here.
Prediction: Under 52.5
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