Oklahoma vs Florida State 12/29/2022 Cheez-it Bowl Prediction

The no. 13 ranked Florida State Seminoles look to finish their 2022 campaign with a sixth straight victory when they take on the skidding Oklahoma Sooners in this year’s version of the Cheez-it Bowl at Camping World Stadium on December 29.

Florida State will be making its first bowl appearance since 2019 and is coming off a 54-38 win over rival Florida. The Seminoles head to this bowl game having won their last five games played. Meanwhile, Oklahoma opened the season with a 3-0 SU record but won only thrice in their last nine games played and is coming off a 51-48 road loss to Texas Tech. The Sooners have dropped three out of their last four games played.

The Sooners have dominated this head-to-head matchup, winning all three regular-season meetings and all three Orange Bowl meetings where they held the Seminoles to just 8.7 points per game.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma is looking to avoid finishing below the .500 mark for the first time since 1998, the year before Bob Stoops took over as head coach and brought aboard Brent Venables as defensive coordinator. Venables is now the head coach and although his first regular season ended with a 3-6 SU Big 12 record and three losses in their final four regular season games, they are still where they are right now.

The Sooners have been hit with players opting not to play in the Cheez-it Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft. These players include their two starting offensive tackles – Wanya Morris and Anton Harrison. RB Eric Gray and defensive tackle Jalen Redmond will also sit out this game which means that RB Jovantae Barnes who has 411 rushing yards and 4 rush TDs this season, will get more carries.

Oklahoma is playing in a 24th consecutive bowl game, the second longest current active streak behind the Clemson Tigers. They lost to Clemson in 2014 when this bowl game was still known as the Russell Athletic League.

Florida State

The Seminoles are back in a bowl game after a two-year absence and they are looking to win 10 games for the first time since the 2016 campaign. Florida State won a combined 8 games in head coach Mike Norvell’s first two seasons with the team but they have turned their fortunes around this year. The Seminoles closed out the year with five consecutive wins.

While Oklahoma will be without several key players in this game, Florida State heads to bowl week pretty much intact. QB Jordan Travis, who threw for 2,796 passing yards with 35 TDs and only four interceptions, Running back Trey Benson and edge rusher Jared Verse are also expected to play in this game.

This marks Florida State’s fourth appearance in the Cheez-it Bowl They won the inaugural game in 1990 when it was called the Blockbuster Bowl. They also won in 2008 and 2011 when it was known as the Champs Sports Bowl.

Oklahoma vs Florida SU Prediction

The Sooners are 3-0 SU in their last 3 games played against the Seminoles.

Oklahoma Sooners SU trends:

• The Sooners are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Sooners are 5-1 SU in their last 6 December games.
• The Sooners are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played as betting underdogs.
• The Sooners are 0-1 SU in their only game played in a neutral site this season.

Florida State Seminoles SU trends:

• The Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Seminoles are 9-2 SU in their last 11 December games played.
• The Seminoles are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games played as betting favorites.
• The Seminoles are also 0-1 SU in their lone neutral site game played this year.

Oklahoma raced to a 24-6 lead in their season finale against Texas Tech but like most of their games this season, they could not finish the game and ended up losing 51-48 in overtime. The Sooners tallied three straight lopsided wins to start the season but finished the season with a 3-6 SU record.

The Sooners allowed an average of 38.2 points per game during their last 9 games, including 41 or more points five times. They went 1-4 SU in their last five games away from Memorial Stadium. Oklahoma’s defense will miss defensive lineman Jalen Redmond who will skip this game to prepare for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Junior QB Dillon Gabriel is coming off a 449-yard 6-TD performance in the loss to Texas Tech. However, he will not have senior running back Eric Gray and his 1,366 rushing yards and 13 TDs since he too has declared for the 2023 NFL Draft.

The Seminoles wrapped up their regular season with a narrow 54-38 win over the Florida Gators. Florida State needed a big third quarter and a late 65-yard scoring run to win their fifth straight game. FSU averaged 43.6 points per game during that stretch.

QB Jordan Travis established himself as a dual threat during the team’s strong finishing surge. Travis threw three TD passes in each of the team’s first three wins during that period and although he connected on just one TD pass in his last two games, he’s rushed for a combined 121 yards with a total of 4 rush TDs scored.

Although FSU allowed 38 points against their rivals the last time out, they allowed their previous four opponents to score only 9.8 points per game and four total TDs. Top wide receiver Johnny Wilson is still out with an undisclosed injury, as is rusher Treshaun Ward.

Oklahoma has raced to early double-digit leads in each of their last three games, only to play badly after the break and lose those games. FSU has also started out fast, scoring 14 points in the first quarter of their last four games played. With OKC giving up 185.7 rushing yards per game and 11 total TDs in their last four games played, Travis’ new-found dual-threat abilities will be put to use here.

The Seminoles are eyeing their first bowl win since 2017. They are in a good position to do that here against the fading Sooners.

Prediction: Florida State

Oklahoma vs Florida ATS Prediction

The Sooners are 3-0 SU in their last three games played against the Seminoles.

Oklahoma Sooners ATS trends:

• The Sooners are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
• The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
• The Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
• The Sooners are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Sooners are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf.
• The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
• The Sooners are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Florida State Seminoles ATS trends:

• The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
• The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on field turf.
• The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The Seminoles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
• The Seminoles are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Bowl games.
• The Seminoles are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 bowl games.
• The Seminoles are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.

Oklahoma is missing too many players in this bowl game that it will be hard to compensate for the missing production in such short period. On the other hand, Florida State is literally intact, save for a few injuries. The advantage in manpower alone is already one-sided but that’s not it.

The Seminoles apply better pressure on defense and they also have a much better offensive line between these two teams. Oklahoma’s rush play percentage is 56.08%, ranked 33rd in the nation. Florida State ranks in the Top 50 at 4.0 yards per rush.

Anywhere I look at it, the Seminoles have the edge. They are also playing much better as of late.

Prediction: Florida State -9.5

Oklahoma vs Florida 12/29/22 Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in two out of the three meetings between these two teams.

Oklahoma Sooners over/under trends:

• The under is 5-1 in the Sooners’ last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last 5 non-conference games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last 5 games played versus the ACC.
• The under is 20-6-1 in the Sooners’ last 27 games in December.
• The under is 5-2 in the Sooners’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Sooners’ last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the Sooners’ last 7 Thursday games.
• The over is 5-2 in the Sooners’ last 7 neutral site games.
• The over is 25-11 in the Sooners’ last 36 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Sooners’ last 5 bowl games.
• The over is 7-2 in the Sooners’ last 9 games against a team with a winning record.
• The over is 17-6 in the Sooners’ last 23 games following a straight-up loss.

Florida State Seminoles over/under trends:

• The over is 4-0 in the Seminoles’ last 4 Thursday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Seminoles’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Seminoles’ last 5 bowl games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Seminoles’ last 5 games on field turf.
• The over is 5-2 in the Seminoles’ last 7 games in December.
• The over is 20-8 in the Seminoles’ last 28 non-conference games.
• The over is 5-2 in the Seminoles’ last 7 games against the Big 12.
• The over is 7-3 in the Seminoles’ last 10 neutral site games
• The under is 5-1 in the Seminoles’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Seminoles’ last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

These two teams are in the Top 25 in the nation in scoring with a combined 69.2 points per game scored this season. However, this Cheez-it Bowl won’t be a high-scoring affair. Oklahoma is missing key offensive players and they are facing a Florida State team ranked 17th in scoring defense at 20.8 points per game allowed.

With the Florida State pass rush applying tremendous pressure, it will be hard for the Sooners to score here. The under is 7-5 in Oklahoma’s 12 games played this season. That trend continues on Thursday.

Prediction: Under 66

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