Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers 08/12/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Green Bay Packers open their preseason play against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Friday night.

The Packers are coming off a season where Aaron Rodgers won his second straight MVP award and the team won 13 games for the third straight campaign. However, they came up short once again in the playoffs, losing to the 49ers in round two. San Francisco had a 10-7 SU season but they made it all the way to the NFC title game where they nearly beat the eventual Super Bowl winners Los Angeles Rams. Things will be different this year though with San Francisco announcing a new starting QB.

Green Bay has not won on the road in August since 2017 while the 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven preseason games. The 49ers defeated the Packers 13-10 in the second round of the playoffs last season before losing to the eventual Super Bowl winners Los Angeles Rams in the NFC title game.

Green Bay Packers

This preseason will be another opportunity for Jordan Love to solidify his status as Aaron Rodgers’ heir apparent. With Rodgers coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, it’s unclear when Love will finally get his chance to own the team, if at all. Love completed only 58% of his passes for 411 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions in limited action last season. In two preseason games in 2021, Love put up 271 passing yards with one score and one pick. Danny Etling is Green Bay’s third-string QB and he does not have any NFL regular season game experience.

Green Bay’s receiving corps took a big hit when Davante Adams left the team. Without Adams, Rodgers’ top receivers will be Sammy Watkins and Allen Lazard. However, both are expected to see little action on Friday, if at all. Aaron Jones is Green Bay’s top rusher while A.J. Dillon rushed for 803 yards on an average of 4.3 yards per carry last season. The Packers used their top pick to draft linebacker Quay Walker. Green Bay ranked 10th in scoring last season at 26.5 points per game while allowing opponents to score only 21.8 points per game, 14th in the league.

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco will begin a new era this year with Trey Lance their new starting QB. Jimmy Garoppolo is still with the team but he is expected to be traded sooner or later. Lance is expected to play in this game but could last for one or two drives only. Once he steps out, it will be Nate Sudfeld and Brock Purdy who will run the 49ers’ offense. Sudfeld passed for 47 yards last season and has passed for a total of 188 yards in three seasons with the Eagles. The third QB is former Iowa State QB Purdy who was drafted in the 7th round.

Top running back Elijah Mitchell isn’t expected to see much action in this game. Instead, it will be back-ups Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyron Davis-Price, and Trey Sermon who will get the bulk of the carries on the ground. San Francisco has solid depth in the receiver position with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Willie Snead IV. The 49ers’ defense is also excellent with Nick Bosa who won’t be playing on Friday. San Francisco was 15th in scoring last season at 25.7 points per game and allowed opponents to score 19.5 points per game, the 10th best in the league.

Who Wins?

Green Bay is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the 49ers. The Packers are also 7-2 SU in their last nine road games against the 49ers.

Green Bay Packers SU trends:

• Green Bay is 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played.

• They are 5-3 SU in their last eight games played on the road.

• They are also 7-3 SU in their last 10 road games as betting underdogs.

• The Packers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 Friday Games

• They are also 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers SU trends:

• San Francisco is 4-1 SU in their last five games played.

• They are 5-2 in their last seven August games.

• They are also 5-2 in their last seven Friday home games.

• The 49ers are 3-6 SU in their last nine home games against the NFC.

The Packers had the NFL’s best record last season with 13 wins, marking the third straight campaign they’ve won at least 13 games. However, they have not performed as well in the postseason in recent years. Last year, Green Bay went 0-3 in preseason play while averaging seven points per game. Over their last six preseason games, the Packers are just 0-6 SU while averaging 13 points per game during that span.

Backup quarterback Jordan Love is expected to start for the Packers on Friday. The incoming third-year signal caller saw action in two of the Packers’ three preseason games in 2021 and completed 68.5% of his passes with one touchdown. The Packers are also not expected to play recently acquired receivers, Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins. However, training camp star Romeo Doubs should see plenty of action on Friday.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are expected to play newly-anointed starter Trey Lance, at least for a few minutes or so. Lance has been under the microscope since the 49ers revealed that they are moving on from Jimmy G. and are giving the keys to the car to Lance. The second-year QB however, has struggled against the improved 49ers defensive line in practice.

Head coach Shanahan has threatened to hold out his starters after their current preseason schedule has the team playing three games in a span of 13 days. If Shanahan makes good on his threat, then the 49ers could be a high-risk team to bet on during the preseason. However, that remains to be seen.

San Francisco’s defense has been unforgiving to Lance in practice. I expect them to be the same as Jordan Love. Love will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. He wants to affirm his status as Rodgers’ heir. The Packers’ offense is hit with injuries but their defense is healthy. With San Francisco’s offensive line still a work in progress and the starters not expected to play big minutes, I like Jordan Love and the Packers to win this game.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Packers vs 49ers ATS Betting

The Packers are 3-2 ATS in their last five games played against the 49ers. Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games in San Francisco.

Green Bay Packers ATS trends:

• The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played.

• They are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games played away from home

• Green Bay is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs on the road.

• The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last games played against the NFC.

• Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC West Division.

• They are 1-5 ATS in their last six August games.

San Francisco 49ers ATS trends:

• The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played.

• They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at home.

• They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games played against the NFC.

• San Francisco is 3-1 ATS in their last four home games against the NFC.

• They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites,

The Packers moved up to draft Jordan Love three years ago, drafting Aaron Rodgers’ heir apparent in a season where Rodger won MVP. Rodgers has won MVP honors in the last two seasons and Love has been stuck on the bench. However, with Rodger not suiting up in this game, Love should get bulk of the minutes with their other QB Danny Etling being a very inexperienced player in the NFL.

With Trey Lance not expected to see major minutes and the likes of Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell most probably not suiting up on Friday, I’m not expecting much from the 49ers. Sure, Jordan Love isn’t the best QB in the NFL and he isn’t probably the best backup out there. But put him side-by-side with Nate Sudfeld or Brock Purdy, I’ll pick Love any given day.

Prediction: Packers +2.5

Packers vs  49ers Over/Under Betting

The total has gone over in 11 out of the last 16 games played between these two teams. The over is also 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings played in San Francisco.

Green Bay Packers over/under trends:

• The total has gone over in six out of the last eight games played by the Packers.

• The over is 3-1 in their last four games played on the road.

• Green Bay has seen the total go over in four out of their last six road game as betting underdogs.

• The over is 5-1 in their last six games played against the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers over/under trends:

• The total has gone under in seven out of the last eight games played by the 49ers.

• The over is 6-1 in their last seven games played versus the NFC North Division.

• The under is 4-1 in their last five games played against the NFC.

• The under is 2-1 in San Francisco’s last three games as home favorites.

Both teams were pretty good scoring teams last season with Green Bay putting up 26.5 points per game and San Francisco scoring over 25 per contest. However, we won’t be seeing Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy G. on Friday. It will be Jordan Love vs Trey Lance, with Trey Lance expected to leave the game early.

While Love is seen as the heir apparent to Rodgers, he looked average in two regular season appearances last season and still is as raw as he was when he first entered the league. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy is a 7th-round pick and Nate Sudfeld isn’t any better. Without a quality QB playing significant minutes here, I don’t expect the teams to score enough points to hit the total.

Prediction: Under 33

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