Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs 08/25/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

Super Bowl LVII contenders Green Bay and Kansas City finish their preseason schedule against each other on Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Packers are 1-1 SU and ATS in the current preseason and they picked up their first preseason win since 2019 the last time out. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are also 1-1 SU and ATS in the preseason. Kansas City lost to Chicago 19-14 in their preseason opener before defeating the Washington Commanders in their last outing.

These two teams also played in the preseason last year with Kansas City defeating Green Bay in a low-scoring 13-7 game.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers defeated the Saints 20-10 after suffering a 28-21 loss to the 49ers in their preseason opener. Former first-round pick and last season’s backup Jordan Love has gotten his opportunity to prove himself in preseason play. He threw for 176 yards against San Francisco and went for 113 against New Orleans. With Love already getting plenty of action in their first two games, it’s a possibility that head coach Matt LaFleur will give 3rd stringer Danny Etling more snaps in his game. Among their receivers, training camp revelation Romeo Doubs has been productive with 69 receiving yards in two games.

Back-to-back MVP winner Aaron Rodgers has yet to see action in the preseason along with most of the team’s offensive starters. LaFleur however has played his defensive starters good minutes, especially in Game 2 where they held Ian Book 113 passing yards and intercepted him once. Green Bay’s rushing defense played poorly though as it allowed the Saints a total of 133 rushing yards.

Green Bay was no. 10 in scoring last season at 26.5 points per game while their defense was the 14th best in the NFL and allowed only 21.8 points per game.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs gained 251 yards through the air with starter Patrick Mahomes playing a couple of series. Mahomes looked impressive in limited time as he completed 12 of 19 passes for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Backup Shane Buechele also threw for 70 yards. Meanwhile, the Kansas City rushing attack produced only 63 yards. Mahomes is expected to see the same kind of action and if he plays as well again too, the Chiefs should be in good shape here.

Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill during the offseason but they still have a good receiving corps. They added Marquez Valdes-Scantling from the Packers. However, the likes of JuJu Shuster-Smith and Mecole Hardman are dealing with injuries. Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw action last week and could be sitting out this game. No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon is also hurt right now. However, the Chiefs still have former Bucs Ronald Jones and Rookie Isiah Pacheco.

They averaged 28.2 points per game last season, 4th in the entire league. The Chiefs also ranked 8th in scoring defense as they allowed only 21.4 points per game.

Who Wins?

The Packers are 3-4 SU in their last seven head-to-head meetings against the Packers. Green Bay is also only 1-6 SU in their last seven games played in Kansas City.

The Packers are:

• 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played.

• 3-7 SU in their last 10 preseason games.

• 8-2 SU in their last 10 preseason games as betting favorites.

• 4-2 SU in their last six road preseason games as betting favorites.

• 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC.

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played on the road against the AFC.

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against the AFC West Division.

The Chiefs are:

• 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the NFC.

• 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games against the NFC.

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the NFC North division.

• 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games against the NFC North division.

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 preseason games.

• 6-4 SU in their last 10 preseason home games.

The Packers won for the first time since 2019 in preseason play when they defeated the New Orleans Saints 20-10 the last time out. That win snapped a four-game preseason losing skid for Green Bay but they are still just 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 preseason games.

Jordan Love went 12-24 with 113 passing yards and two TD passes and Love has been playing well in the preseason. Head coach Matt LaFleur did not commit to Aaron Rodgers seeing action on Thursday with Rodgers and most of the team’s starters sitting out their first two games. This caused the early odds to shift from -4.5 points to -1 in favor of the Packers.

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes played in two drives during Kansas City’s Saturday game against the Washington Commanders. He ended up completing 12 of 19 passes for 162 passing yards with two TD passes in a 24-14 win Jody Fortson caught four passes including the two TD throws from Mahomes.

Andy Reid could give Mahomes the same amount of exposure here and if Mahomes plays like he did last week, the Chiefs could build an early lead before Shane Buechele and Chad Henne will get their snaps. The Chiefs are 10-5 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in their last 15 preseason games played at home.

Unless LaFleur changes his mind and gives his starters a good amount of playing time, I expect the Chiefs to race to a lead. The Packers are going to make this a close game but I expect the home team to hang on for the victory.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Other Bets to Make

Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Chiefs. Green Bay is also 4-3 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.

The Packers are

• 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason games.

• 8-2 ATS in their last 10 preseason games as betting favorites.

• 1-3 ATS in their last four road preseason games as betting favorites.

• 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the AFC.

• 6-4 ATS in their last six road games against the AFC.

• 6-4 ATS in their last six game against the AFC West

• 1-4 ATS in their last five August games played.

The Chiefs are :

• 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games played.

• 3-6-1 ATS in the Chiefs’ last 10 games against the NFC.

• 3-6 ATS in their last nine games against the NFC North division

• 1-3 ATS in their last four home games against the NFC North division.

• 3-5 ATS in their last eight preseason games.

• 8-4 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.

• 3-2 ATS in their last five preseason home games.

Jordan Love has played well in two preseason games and has passed for 289 yards. However, with Rodgers likely sitting out this game again, the Chiefs will be able to put up more points on the board than the Packers. Kansas City may not necessarily want to win this game but with Mahomes on the field for a couple of series, the Chiefs should be able to find the end zone when he’s playing.

Look for Jordan Love to impress but expect the Chiefs defense to show up again. Kansas City has allowed only 16.5 points per game in the preseason while Green Bay is averaging just 20.5 points per game in two preseason games. Give me the Chiefs to cover the spread at home and win outright.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs +1

Over/Under Betting:

The total has gone over in six out of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is 4-2 in their last six games played in Kansas City.

Green Bay Packers over/under trends:

• Over is 7-3 in the Packers’ last 10 games played overall

• Over is 4-1 in the Packers’ last five road games.

• Over is 7-3 in the Packers’ last 10 preseason games.

• Over is 6-4 in the Packers’ last 10 preseason games as betting favorites.

• Over is 4-2 in the Packers’ last six preseason road games as betting favorites.

• Under is 7-3 in the Packers’ last 10 games played against the AFC.

• Under is 4-2 in their last six road games against the AFC.

• Under is 4-2 in their last six games against the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• Over is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games played.

• Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five home games.

• Over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last six games played on grass.

• Over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last six Thursday games.

• Over is 4-2 in their last six games against the NFC North division.

• Under is 6-0 in their last six games against the NFC.

• Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five games played.

• Under is 4-2 in their last six home games against the NFC North division.

• Under is 6-4 in the Chiefs’ last 10 preseason games.

Green Bay has scored at least 20 points in each of their two preseason games while the Chiefs have averaged 22 points per game in their last 3 preseason games played. Green Bay has amassed 726 offensive yards in their first two games without Rodgers while Mahomes went for 162 yards with two scores in two drives the last time out.

Although the Packers may not play Rodgers again, many defensive starters will be resting for both sides. With inexperienced players on defense, expect Mahomes to light up the scoreboards again. Meanwhile, Jordan Love hasn’t been that bad either. Look for these teams to put up plenty of points in this contest with the total score hitting at least 40 points.

Prediction: Over 36

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