San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks 04/28/2021 MLB Odds and Pick

The San Diego Padres conclude a short two-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday at Chase Field.

Arizona defeated San Diego 5-1 in Game 1 on Monday night behind another solid pitching effort from Merrill Kelly who gave up only one run on four hits in six innings with five strikeouts. The Diamondbacks have lost just once in their last eight games played and have moved above the .500 mark for the first time this year.

San Diego Padres

The Padres dropped to 13-12 on the season after suffering a 5-1 loss against the Diamondbacks on Monday. San Diego entered Monday with the best pitching staff in the majors, with an ERA of 2.75 and a third-ranked WHIP of 1.09 while allowing batters to hit .204. However, San Diego allowed five runs on seven hits with one home run on Monday.

Ryan Weathers will open on top of the mound for San Diego on Wednesday. Weathers 1-0 with an ERA of 0.59 and 16 strikeouts in four appearances. He has allowed just one run on three hits in a total of 12 ⅓ innings pitched this season.

Eric Hosmer leads the team with a batting average of .315 and 15 RBIs on 28 hits. Wil Myers, Victor Caratini, and Manny Machado have combined for 33 RBIs. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with seven homers on 14 hits with 9 RBIs. As a team, San Diego is batting .233 and slugging at .361 with an OBP of .323.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Padres

-158

Diamondbacks

+146

Odds from BetOnline as of 04/28/2021

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks are on a roll right now with three straight victories. The Diamondbacks have won seven out of their last eight games played and have moved above the .500 mark for the first time this season at 12-11 and they are just 3.5 games behind the division leaders L.A. Dodgers.

Taylor Widener gets the start for Arizona in Game 2. The right-hander will make his fifth start of the season. He is 1-0 with a 2.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.119 with six walks and 18 strikeouts in 22.1 innings of work. In his last outing, Widener did not factor in the decision after allowing four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings of work with one walk and seven strikeouts.

Pavin Smith is hitting .288 on the season with 19 hits and 7 RBIs. David Peralta leads the Diamondbacks with 18 RBIs on 20 hits while Eduardo Escobar leads the team with seven homers. Escobar also ranks second in the team with 14 RBIs. Catcher Carson Kelly also has 12 RBIs for the Diamondbacks who are 15th in batting at .231, 7th in slugging at .410, and 6th in OBP at .325.

Who Wins?

The Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a right-handed starter. They are 4-1 in their last five road games and 6-2 in their last eight games as road favorites. San Diego is 4-1 in their last five games against the National West, and 5-1 in their last six games when the total is set between 9-10.5.

The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last seven games played. Arizona is 6-1 in their last seven games as the betting underdog, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record, and 9-3 in their last dozen home games against an opponent with a winning record. Head to head, Arizona is 25-10 in their last 35 home games against San Diego.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled on top of the mound at 4.56 earned runs per game. The Padres head to this road game with plenty of confidence after taking down the Los Angeles Dodgers in three out of their four games at Chavez Ravine. I’ll eat the small chalk here and go with the Padres.

Prediction: San Diego Padres -158

Over/Under Betting

The total has gone under in 11 out of the last 15 games played by the Padres. San Diego has seen the total go under in 11 out of their last 15 games as the betting favorite. The under is also 5-2 in their last seven games against a right-hander, 7-3 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP of lesser than 1.5, and 9-4 in their last 13 games against the National League West.

The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Diamondbacks. Arizona has seen the total go over in seven out of their last eight games. The over is 6-1 in their last seven games against a left-handed starter, 5-2 in their last seven home games against an opponent with a winning record, and 4-1 in their last five Wednesday games.

Head to head, the total has gone under in four out of their last five meetings. The under is also 5-2-1 in their last eight meetings in Arizona.

The Padres have one of the highest “under” records in the league going 15-9 in their first 24 games of the season. They are just 24th overall is scoring at 3.88 runs per game this season and are 3rd in run prevention by limiting opponents to 3.5 runs per outing. Arizona is the opposite as they rank 2nd in the majors in scoring at 5.27 runs per game while allowing 4.91 runs per contest. However, this rivalry has been traditionally low-scoring in recent years and I expect Weathers to put the cuffs on the Arizona offense.

Prediction: Under 9 (+100)

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