San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins 08/15/2022 MLB Odds and Prediction

The San Diego Padres head to the loanDepot Park to take on the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of a three-game set between these two teams on Monday night.

San Diego is 65-52 on the season and they are in 2nd place in the NL West Division, 16 games behind the L.A. Dodgers. The Padres are currently occupying the second wild card spot in the NL and are one-half game ahead of the Phillies for the third wild card position and 1.5 games ahead of the Brewers who are looking outside the picture.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are 50-65 this year and are 4th in the NL East Division, a far 25 games behind the division leaders New York Mets. Miami is also way behind in the wild-card picture as they are 13.5 games off the third spot.

San Diego Padres

The Padres were touted to be a problem in the postseason but after Fernando Tatis Jr. was suspended for 80 games, San Diego’s Super Bowl odds tumbled. Despite that, the Padres are in the thick of the wild card race. And since they didn’t play without Tatis at all this season, this is a team that has proven its worth. With the addition of Juan Soto, the Padres are still a team to watch.

Joe Musgrove will open on top of the mound for San Diego on Monday. Musgrove is 8-5 with an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.02, and a 124/28 K/BB ratio. Opposing batters are hitting at a .216 average against Musgrove this season. In his last start against the San Francisco Giants, he did not factor in the decision although he allowed only one earned run on six hits in seven innings pitched.

Miami Marlins

Miami is second to the last in its division and they are not having a good year. The Marlins are 15 games below the .500 mark and are far from both winning the division or making the wild card. The reason behind their struggles is a terrible offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, walks, batting average, OBP, OPS, and SLG.

However, the Marlins have one of the best pitchers in baseball and he will be opening this series on Monday. Sandy Alcantara is 10-5 on the season with an ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of 0.95. The Marlins’ ace has a 145/41 K/BB ratio and is allowing hitters a .198 batting average. He ranks in the Top 5 in ERA, innings pitched, and WHIP. Alcantara has gone seven or more innings in 16 out of his 23 starts this season.

Padres vs Marlins Betting Prediction

The Padres are 5-2 in their last seven meetings against the Marlins. They are however 3-5 in their last eight games played in Miami.

The Padres are:

• 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

• 2-5 in their last 7 road games.

• 9-2 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter.

• 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.

• 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

• 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win.

• 7-3 in their last 10 Game 1s of a series.

• 20-42 in their last 62 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 20-42 in their last 62 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 16-37 in their last 53 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• 5-12 in their last 17 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 9-23 in their last 32 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 2-6 in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing record.

• 1-4 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Marlins are:

• 7-20 in their last 27 overall.

• 5-18 in their last 23 home games.

• 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.

• 3-13 in their last 16 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• 2-10 in their last 12 games versus a right-handed starter.

• 1-7 in their last 8 Monday games.

• 0-4 in their last 4 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• 0-5 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• 7-20 in their last 27 games on grass.

• 5-16 in their last 21 home games against a right-handed starter.

• 4-14 in their last 18 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• 2-7 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• 17-36 in their last 53 games against a team with a winning record.

• 8-20 in their last 28 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5

• 21-54 in their last 75 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

• 18-48 in their last 66 Game 1s of a series.

• 7-19 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

• 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League West.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Padres

-129

Marlins

+119

Odds from BetOnline as of 0815/2022

These two teams will be sending excellent pitchers on the mound and there’s a good chance that the two offset each other’s performance. Hence, the difference in this game could be these teams’ offenses with San Diego having clearly the better one.

Musgrove went seven innings while allowing only five hits and two earned runs in his only start against the Marlins this season. Miami is also in the Bottom 10 in the league in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, walks, and batting average, among other offensive categories. Meanwhile, Alcantara had his shortest outing of the season against San Diego, allowing two earned runs on five hits in 4.2 innings.

Give me the Padres to win this pitcher’s duel because of their massive edge in offense.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Padres vs Marlins Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The under is also 5-1 in their last six head-to-head meetings in Miami.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

• Over is 6-4 in the Padres’ last 10 games played.

• Over is 5-2-2 in the Padres’ last 9 road games.

• Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

• Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Over is 3-1-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Over is 5-2-1 in the Padres’ last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Over is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 against a team with a losing record.

• Over is 5-2-1 in the Padres’ last 8 road games against a team with a losing record.

• Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Over is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Over is 17-5 in the Padres’ last 22 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Over is 4-0 in the Padres’ last 4 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games following a win.

• Over is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

• Over is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 road games against a right-handed starter.

• Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

• Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

• Under is 9-3-1 in the Padres’ last 13 Monday games.

Miami Marlins over/under trends:

• Under is 15-5-2 in the Marlins’ last 22 overall.

• Under is 5-0-2 in the Marlins’ last 7 home games.

• Under is 8-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 9 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Under is 3-0-2 in the Marlins’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

• Under is 6-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

• Under is 3-0-1 in the Marlins’ last 4 Game 1s of a series.

• Under is 5-0-2 in the Marlins’ last 7 games against a team with a winning record.

• Under is 2-0-2 in the Marlins’ last 4 home games versus a team with a winning record.

• Under is 3-0-2 in the Marlins’ last 5 home games versus a right-handed starter.

• Under is 4-0-2 in the Marlins’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Under is 10-1-1 in the Marlins’ last 12 games following a loss.

• Under is 8-1-2 in the Marlins’ last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.

• Under is 7-2 in the Marlins’ last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

• Under is 6-2 in the Marlins’ last 8 Monday games.

• Under is 15-5-2 in the Marlins’ last 22 games played on grass.

• Under is 18-6-2 in the Marlins’ last 26 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

• Over is 19-8-3 in the Marlins’ last 30 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Both starting pitchers are having fantastic seasons. Alcantara has a 2.01 ERA with a WHIP of 0.95 and a 145/41 K/BB ratio. The Marlins’ ace ranks in the Top 5 in baseball when it comes to ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched. He has gone at least seven innings in 16 of his 23 starts. At home, he’s even looked better, pitching to an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.87 with opposing batters hitting a mere .191 against him.

Meanwhile, Musgrove has a 2.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.02 while owning a 124/28 K/BB ratio. He should get into trouble with a Miami lineup that is ranked in the bottom 10 in runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, walks, batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS.

These two teams have combined to score an average of 6.0 runs per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. Given the quality of the starters, I have no doubt that these teams will hit the under in this game.

Prediction: Under 6.5

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