The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies open a three-game set at Coors Field on Friday night.
San Diego will be looking to extend its four-game winning streak against Colorado. In their most recent series, the Padres swept the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. They have won eight out of their last 10 games to take a one-half game lead over the World Series favorites Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West division with their 41-24 record.
Colorado is trending in the opposite direction as it got swept by the Cleveland Guardians in their most recent set. The Rockies are just 4-6 in their last 10 games played and are currently in the bottom of the NL West, 13.5 games behind the Padres with a record of 27-37.
San Diego is an impressive 24-11 on the road this season while Colorado is just 6-19 at Coors Field this year.
The Padres had a four-game losing skid from the end of May to the start of the current month. However, they have bounced back nicely and have won 11 out of their last 14 games heading to this series. In their last series, the Padres swept the Chicago Cubs 4-0 and outscored them 41-15 in four games played.
San Diego is 14th in the majors with a .43 clip. They rank 19th in the league with a team OPS of .698 while scoring an average of 4.75 runs per game. The Padres are led by third baseman Manny Machado who has an OPS of .937 with 11 home runs and 43 RBIs on the season. Machado has been playing even better in his last seven games where he has gone 9-30 with one home run and six RBIs while scoring seven runs.
Mackenzie Gore will start for the Padres in Friday’s Game 1. The 23-year-old left-hander from Wilmington, NC is 4-2 with an ERA of 2.60 and a WHIP of 1.19 in a total of 9 starts this season. Gore has pitched in a total of 50.1 innings and has allowed 14 earned runs on 39 hits. He has struck out a total of 60 hitters while walking 21 and has surrendered only one home run so far this season.
Gore took the loss in his last start as the Padres were beaten by the Rockies last June 11th. In that game, the left-hander lasted only 2.1 innings while allowing six earned runs on five hits. San Diego however, was 4-0 in his previous four starts.
Colorado was able to get a split in their four-game set against the Padres last weekend but they head to this next set on a three-game losing skid. The Rockies went 0-3 against Cleveland in their previous series, losing all three games by two runs or fewer. Friday begins a six-game home stand for Colorado as they try to get back in the wild-card race.
The Rockies are ranked 15th in the majors with an OPS of .708 as a team while scoring 4.44 runs per game this season. Charlie Blackmon is having a fine campaign as he has an OPS of .759 with 33 RBIs and 10 home runs this year. In 31 home games played at Coors Field, Blackmon has a slash line of .248/.319/.416 with five homers and 15 RBIs.
Colorado will send Kyle Freeland to the top of the mound on Friday. The 29-year-old left-hander from Denver, Colorado has started in a total of 12 games with a record of 2-5 while posting an ERA of 4.39 and a WHIP of 1.42. Freeland has a total of 48 strikeouts and 22 walks with 6 home runs given up in a total of 65.2 innings pitched this season.
In his last start, Freeland picked up his second win of the season as the Rockies defeated the Padres 6-2 last June 11th. The lefty had a nice outing with only two earned runs allowed on three hits in 6.0 innings pitched. Colorado is just 3-3 in his last six starts.
The Padres are 2-5 in their last seven games played against the Rockies. San Diego is 0-7 in their last seven meetings in Colorado.
The Padres are:
4-0 in their last 4 overall.
7-0 in their last 7 Friday games.
4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
4-0 in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.
6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.
5-1 in their last 6 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
12-3 in their last 15 games as a road favorite.
7-2 in their last 9 games as a favorite.
17-5 in their last 22 road games against a team with a losing record.
21-7 in their last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
14-5 in their last 19 Game 1s of a series.
5-2 in their last 7 games versus the National League West.
20-8 in their last 28 road games.
15-7 in their last 22 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
The Rockies are:
4-10 in their last 14 overall.
4-10 in their last 14 games on grass.
8-21 in their last 29 games as a home underdog.
10-27 in their last 37 games as an underdog.
6-18 in their last 24 Game 1s of a series.
0-4 in their last 4 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
0-4 in their last 4 Friday games.
0-7 in their last 7 home games.
17-35 in their last 52 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
29-60 in their last 89 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
10-21 in their last 31 against an opponent from the National League West.
5-11 in their last 16 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Mackenzie Gore has pitched well on the road as he is 3-0 in four starts with an ERA of 1.05. Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.35 in seven road starts. These two teams have been on different offensive levels as of late with San Diego scoring an average of seven runs per game and the Rockies putting up just three runs per game in their previous seven contests.
Sure, the betting trends show that the Rockies have had more success in their recent head-to-head meetings but right now, San Diego is playing much better than Colorado. The Padres head to this series after sweeping the Cubs while the Rockies are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Guardians. I’ll go with recent form over head-to-head history in picking the winner of this game.
Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres over/under trends:
Under is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Under is 9-4-1 in the Padres’ last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Padres’ last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-0-1 in the Padres’ last 5 Friday games.
Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games as betting favorites.
Under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 7-2 in the Padres’ last 9 games following a win.
Over is 3-1-2 in the Padres’ last 6 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 road games.
Colorado Rockies over/under trends:
Under is 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 overall.
Under is 3-0-1 in the Rockies’ last 4 on grass.
Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 6 home games.
Under is 3-1-1 in the Rockies’ last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-2 in the Rockies’ last 6 games following a loss.
Under is 5-2-1 in the Rockies’ last 8 vs. National League West.
Under is 9-4 in the Rockies’ last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 38-18-1 in the Rockies’ last 57 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 38-18-1 in the Rockies’ last 57 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 13-4 in the Rockies’ last 17 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Over is 42-17-1 in the Rockies’ last 60 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 13-6 in the Rockies’ last 19 Friday games.
Over
11.5 (-110)
Under
11.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/17/2022
People tend to bet on the over in run-friendly Coors Field. However, I don’t think that will be the case in this game. Gore has pitched well on the road this season. Overall, the Padres have a team ERA of 3.32 which is the 5th best in the majors. The San Diego pitching should offset the deficiencies of its opposing pitching staff which averages 4.96 runs per game allowed.
These two teams are tied for 23rd in the majors with only 54 total home runs this season which means that we’re likely not getting quick scores on Friday night. Both teams have combined to score an average of 8.9 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and an even lower 5.67 runs per game in their most recent three encounters. San Diego has scored four or fewer runs four times in their last seven contests. Colorado has scored at least five runs only thrice in their last 10 games played.
I think this game will have its share of runs scored but the total won’t be enough to go over the 11.5 total.
Prediction: Under 11.5
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