Carolina Panthers vs New England Patriots 08/19/2022 NFL Preseason Preview

The Carolina Panthers look for their second preseason win when they visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Friday night.

Carolina defeated the Washington Commanders 23-21 in a game where they were 3-point underdogs last week. Meanwhile, the Patriots lost to the New York Giants 23-21 in a matchup where they were listed as -3 point bottom dogs.

The Panthers opened as 1.5 point spread favorites and went as high as a -2 but the odds have shifted and the Patriots are now favored

These two teams have split their eight total head-to-head meetings but the Panthers have won two out of the last three.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers won last week but they are still unsure who their starter will be during Week 1 of the regular season. Sam Darnold completed two of three passes for 16 yards with one touchdown while Baker Mayfield completed four of seven passes for 45 yards.

Their running game produced 91 yards on 30 carries last week and top RB Christian McCaffrey was held out and could be again on Friday night. Undrafted free agent RB Spencer Brown led the team with 36 yards with one TD on 10 carries and he is expected to get the bulk of the action in this game.

Carolina’s defense showed that it can be as good as last season’s, which finished second overall. However, after keeping the Commanders offense in check for most of the game, they allowed Washington to pick up plenty of offensive yards.

New England Patriots

The Patriots are going a different direction this season after announcing that they won’t have an offensive coordinator this season. In last week’s preseason game, we saw newly-hired offensive line coach Matt Patricia and quarterbacks coach Joe Judge took turns in running the offense.

Brian Hoyer completed five of 8 passes for 59 yards in limited action while rookie Bailey Zappe completed 59% of his passes for 205 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception. New England produced only 52 rushing yards on 18 carries with Pierre Strong Jr. leading the way with 25 yards on 6 carries.

The Patriots rush defense failed them the last time out. It allowed 177 rushing yards and one touchdown. With Carolina rushing the ball 30 times last week, New England’s defense has got to be ready for a rush-heavy attack if they want to win this game.

Panthers vs Patriots Prediction

Carolina is 2-5 SU in their last seven games played against New England. The Patriots are also 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Carolina.

Carolina Panthers SU trends:

• The Panthers are 1-7 SU in their last eight games played.

• Carolina is 0-4 SU in their last four games played on the road.

• They are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC.

• They are also 3-2 SU in their last five preseason games played.

• The Panthers are also 2-1 SU in their last three preseason road games.

• They are 2-3 SU in their last five preseason road games as betting underdogs.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six games played.

• They are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the NFC.

• They are also 7-1 SU in their last eight Friday games.

• New England is 7-3 SU in their last 10 preseason games.

• The Patriots are 6-4 SU in their last 10 home games played in the preseason.

• They are 6-4 SU in their last 10 preseason games as betting favorites.

• They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games played in August.

Carolina finished the 2021 campaign with a disappointing 2-15 SU record. However, the team has produced better results in the preseason. After a 23-21 road victory against the Washington Commanders last week, the Panthers are now 3-2 in their last five preseason games and are also 3-1-1 ATS during that span. Despite playing better in August, Carolina still needs to make decisions.

Baker Mayfield was the presumptive favorite to be the team’s starter after his trade from the Browns during the offseason. But Mayfield didn’t do anything special to earn that spot last week and neither did last season’s starter, Sam Darnold. The two are expected to continue to battle for the QB1 job on Friday as they have been doing so in practice. It remains to be seen who wins.

New England rested Mac Jones in their opening preseason game against the Giant. It’s unclear if Jones will see action on Friday and if so how much time he will spend on the field. But more than seeing Jones play, it will be interesting to see who will call the shots for the Patriots on Friday.

Offensive line coach Matt Patricia called the plays when Brian Hoyer played behind center. Then it was Quarterbacks coach Joe Judge who steered the Patriots when rookie Bailey Zappe played the final three-quarters of the game against the Giants. Both did well last weekend with Zappe throwing for 205 yards while playing with an offensive line without any starter.

Expect a strong offensive game from the Panthers who will get big efforts from both Mayfield and Darnold. However, the key to this game could be Carolina’s defense which was one of the best in the league last season. The Panthers were strong on that side of the field last week as they held Washington to only one drive inside the red zone before allowing two late scores.

New England had the second-best pass defense in the league last season and that should come in handy when they face a team like the Panthers who are having a QB battle. However, that defense struggled against Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor last week, indicating perhaps that it could find itself in trouble against the Mayfield-Darnold duo too.

Bill Belichick is a coach who wants to win in the preseason. However, given that these two teams had joint practices this week, he may have seen enough. I think he will play Mac Jones a little here. But as he did for most of the Giants game, he’s going to give his starters plenty of rest, and the Panthers the chance to win.

Carolina Panthers ATS trends:

• The Panthers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games played.

• They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on the road.

• Carolina is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five preseason games played.

• They are 4-3-2 ATS in their last nine preseason road games.

• They are also 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine preseason road game as underdogs.

• The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC East.

• They are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games on the road.

New England Patriots ATS trends:

• The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played.

• They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played at home.

• New England is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played on field turf.

• The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 preseason games.

• They are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games.

• They are 4-1 ATS in their last five preseason home games as betting favorites.

• New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against NFC.

• They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Friday games.

The Panthers have not announced who their starter will be but whoever Matt Rhule rules as his QB1 here, that guy will still share the minutes with the other contestant for the permanent starter job. The competition between Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold is going to make both plays better on Friday, leading to scores by Carolina.

Meanwhile, the Patriots sat out Mac Jones last week and there’s a good chance he doesn’t get many minutes here. New England couldn’t get their rushing game going, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry while totaling just 52 rushing yards. I expect the Rookie Zapp to get most of the snaps again this week and while he will be getting the needed experience, the Panthers should be able to take this game outright.

Prediction: Panthers +3

Panthers vs  Patriots Over/Under Trends

The under is 3-1-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The total has gone under in four out of the last five games between these two teams at Gillette Stadium.

Carolina Panthers over/under trends:

• The total has gone over in six out of the Panthers’ last eight games played.

• The over is 4-1 in their last five games played.

• Carolina has seen the total go over in 39 out of their last 59 games played on field turf.

• The over is 6-3-1 in Carolina’s last 10 preseason games played.

• The over is also 6-1-1 in their last eight road games played in the preseason.

• The total has gone over in six out of their last eight preseason road games as underdogs.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• The total has gone over in each of the last five games played by the Patriots.

• The over is 7-0 in their last seven games played at home.

• The over is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 preseason home games.

• The over is 7-3 in their last 10 preseason home games as betting favorites.

• The over is 8-1 in their last nine games played on field turf.

• The total has gone under in each of their last eight games against the NFC South.

• The under is 3-7 in the Patriots’ last 10 preseason games.

With the competition between Darnold and Mayfield ( or vice versa ) still ongoing, expect the Panthers’ starters to be more on the floor on Friday to help Matt Rhule decide which QB plays well with his main men. With both trying to outdo the other, the Panthers should be able to get scores from both QBs.

On the other hand, the Patriots rested most of their starters but Hoyer and Zappe combined for three scores. With Zappe getting plenty of snaps and gaining valuable experience last week, he should be more comfortable coming into this game against a team that could not stop their opponent from scoring points. This one should hit the over.

Prediction: Over 40

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