New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills 12/06/2021 NFL Odds and Prediction

The New England Patriots take their six-game winning streak to Buffalo where they will take on the Bills in a battle for supremacy in the AFC East on Monday Night Football.

New England is currently the top team in the AFC East division with their 8-4 record while Buffalo is just one-half game behind them at 7-4. The Bills are the favorites to win the division but the Patriots are giving them a good fight with the season headed to its final month.

The Patriots are coming off a 36-13 win over the Tennessee Titans as seven-point betting favorites. Meanwhile, the Bill defeated the New Orleans Saints 31-6 also as seven-point spread favorites in their last game.

New England is a perfect 5-0 SU in five road games played this season while Buffalo is a modest 3-2 SU in five home games played so far this campaign.

New England Patriots

The Patriots added to their winning streak last weekend by defeating the Tennessee Titans at home. The Pats took advantage of the absence of Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones, among others. They edged Tennessee 394-355 in total offense, had the 23-18 edge in first downs, and forced four turnovers without committing one.

Mac Jones completed 23 of 32 passes for 310 yards with two touchdowns against the Titans. Rhamondre Stevenson had nine carries for 46 yards while Jakobi Meyers caught fight passes for 98 yards.

New England ranks 14th in the league in passing at 240.0 yards per game this season. They are 12th on the ground with an average of 112.3 rushing yards per game. The Patriots are ranked 7th in the league in scoring at 28.0 points per game and are the number 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at only 15.6 points per game allowed.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills bounced back from their loss to the Colts by defeating the Saints on Thanksgiving Thursday. Buffalo outgunned Indianapolis 361-190 in total offense and picked up a 21-12 advantage in first downs. The Bills also dominated possession time 34:38 to 25:22 but lost the turnover battle 2-1.

Josh Allen completed 22 of 28 passes for 260 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Devin Singletary led the ground attack with 44 yards on 15 carries while

Stefon Diggs had 7 catches for 74 yards with one TD grab.

Buffalo has the 8th best passing offense in the league at 271.0 yards per game. They are ranked 11th in rushing at 118.3 rushing yards per contest. The Bills are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.6 points per game and they also have the second-best scoring defense at 16.5 points per game allowed

Who Wins?

New England is 6-0 SU in their last six games played. The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games played on the road. Buffalo is 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played. The Bills are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played at home.

Head to head, The Patriots are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bills. New England is also 8-1 SU in their last nine home games against Buffalo

Drafting Mac Jones is looking like a Midas touch right now. Replacing Tom Brady was impossible but given the circumstances, Jones has exceeded expectations. He’s led the team to six straight wins but Buffalo will be his first big test.

This looks like the perfect opportunity for Allen to prove his worth as an MVP candidate and for the Bills to prove that last season’s AFC title game run was no fluke. With a lot on the line, I expect to see the MVP, Josh Allen, here. With both teams having great scoring defenses, it’s going to be Allen who will make or break it for the Bills. I’m betting he makes it.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Other Bets to Make

The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games played. New England is 4-1 ATS in their five road games played this season, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last five games after an SU win, 4-0 ATS in their last four games played against the AFC, and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

The Bills are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games played. Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last four December games, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the AFC East, 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.

Head to head, the road team is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings. New England is also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games played against Buffalo.

You have to love what the Patriots have been doing in their last six games. However, New England has hardly faced a good defensive team during that stretch. The Falcons and Jets are the bottom two scoring defenses in the NFL while the Chargers are 29th and the Titans 22nd. The Panthers and the Browns were the only above-average defense that they faced but neither are near the Bills when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard.

Buffalo has beaten better opposition this season. And while theirs hasn’t been a dream season, Buffalo has gotten the big win that they have so far needed. With first place in the AFC EAst at stake and a 70,000 strong contingent cheering them on, I expect the Bills to bring their A-game and show who’s the boss in the AFC East. I could be wrong, but I’ll lay up to a field goal and bet on the Bills.

Prediction: Bills -2.5

The total has gone under in each of the last four games of the Patriots after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in their last four games when accumulating more than 350 yards of offense in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four December games, 4-1 in their last five Week 13 games, 6-2 in their last eight games as betting underdogs, and 7-2 in their last nine road games.

The total has gone over in Buffalo’s last seven games after allowing 250 or fewer yards in their previous game. The over is 6-1 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games after allowing less than 150 rushing yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS win, 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a straight-up win, and 6-2 in their last eight games after a straight-up win of more than 14 points.

These two teams are no. 1 and no. 2 in the league when it comes to scoring defense. New England is on top of the league with an average of 15.8 points per game allowed. Buffalo is right behind them at 16.5 points per game conceded. Add those averages up and that will give you around 32 total points.

Now the Patriots have split their last 12 games between the over and under. They started the season with four straight unders but have gone over in six out of their last eight. The Bills have seen the under post a 6-5 mark this season and are coming off an under in their win over New Orleans on Thanksgiving night.

Then there is the weather factor as current forecasts say that the temperature at game time will b in the mid-30s with winds from the west at 20 miles per hour gusting up to 43. Those conditions could create a hostile environment that the rookie Mac Jones isn’t used to. The total has dropped from 45 to 41 as of Sunday afternoon. I think this game is going under the total.

Prediction: Under 41

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