New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers 10/02/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The New England Patriots travel to Lambeau Field for a date with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.

New England is 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS after three weeks of action. The Patriots are currently tied with the New York Jets at the bottom of the AFC East division standings. They lost to the Miami Dolphins 20-7 in week 1, bounced back to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 17-14 in week 2, then suffered a 37-26 defeat at the hands of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens last weekend. In their last game, the Pats lost QB Mac Jones to an ankle injury.

Green Bay lost to the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 on opening week and looked like they were headed to a tough season without Davante Adams. But the Packers have won back-to-back games and are coming off a close 14-12 win over the erstwhile NFC favorites Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend. Green Bay won seven straight games last season after losing their opening game. It remains to be seen though if they can replicate that feat this year.

New England Patriots

The Patriots’ 2022 campaign suffered a huge blow when Mac Jones suffered an ankle injury late during last weekend’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Jones has been diagnosed with a severe high ankle sprain and will be out for several weeks. Without Jones, the Patriots will make do with veteran Brian Hoyer as starting QB.

The 36-year-old Hoyer appeared in a total of five games last season and completed 9-11 passes for 227 yards with one TD and no interception. Damien Harris leads the Patriots with 160 rushing yards and two rush TDs in 35 carries this season. Meanwhile, Nelson Agholor is the team’s top receiver with 179 receiving yards with 1 TD grab. DeVante Parker is coming off a game where he caught 5 passes for 156 yards.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have won two straight games after losing their season-opener against the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay dominated the Chicago Bears 27-10 two weeks ago and then they out steadied Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-12 last weekend to improve to 2-1 on the season.

Aaron Rodgers has completed 68 of 94 passes for 684 yards with 4 passing TDs and 2 INTs. The back-to-back MVP winner passed for 255 yards with 1 TD last weekend when the Packers beat the Bucs. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones has rushed for 217 yards with 1 TD in 37 carries to lead the Packers ground attack. On the other hand, Romeo Doubs has 14 catches for 137 receiving yards with one TD catch.

Patriots vs Packers Betting Prediction

Head to head, the Patriots are 3-1 SU in their last four games played against the Packers. New England is 1-2 SU in their last three meetings in Green Bay.

New England Patriots SU trends:

• The Patriots are 1-4 SU in their last five games played.

• The Patriots are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games played against the NFC North Division.

• The Patriots are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.

• The Patriots are 3-6 SU in their last 9 road games as betting underdogs.

Green Bay Packers SU trends:

• The Packers are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played.

• The Packers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played at home.

• The Packers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the American Football Conference.

• The Packers are 12-4 SU in their last 16 Sunday games.

Not only did Lamar Jackson and the Ravens beat the Patriots 37-26 last weekend, but New England also lost quarterback Mac Jones to an ankle injury. Jones is expected to miss several weeks and in his absence, the Pats will go with veteran Brian Hoyer.

The 36-year-old will be making only his second career start with the Patriots, in his second stint with the team, on Sunday. Hoyer is a journeyman who has played for six teams throughout his 14-year NFL career. The good news for New England is that their key offseason acquisition, DeVante Parker had a huge game last week with 156 receiving yards on 10 targets.

After looking bad in a Week 1 loss, the Packers have reeled off back-to-back wins. That isn’t new however as Green Bay also lost to the Saints in their season opener last year but they reeled off 7 consecutive wins after that. Whether this year’s team matches that feat remains to be seen.

Last week, the Packers defeated Tom Brady and the Bucs in a game where back-to-back MVP winner Aaron Rodgers threw for 255 yards with two TD passes. Rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs caught 8 passes for 73 yards and scored his first career touchdown in the 14-12 win. Expect him to have a bigger role in this game after proving his worth the last time out.

The Pats have turned the ball over eight times after three games. That’s the second-worst number, behind only the New Orleans Saints. They will also not have Mac Jones here so that’s going to be a bigger issue.

Unless they can take care of the ball, the Patriots will be giving Rodgers more opportunities to score. You can’t do that against the back-to-back MVP winner.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Patriots vs Packers ATS Prediction

The Patriots are 3-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Packers. New England is also 1-2 ATS in their last three games played in Green Bay.

New England Patriots ATS trends :

• The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

• The Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

• The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.

• The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

• The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.

• The Patriots are 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The Patriots are 45-20-2 ATS in their last 67 games in October.

Green Bay Packers ATS trends:

• The Packers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

• The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

• The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

• The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.

• The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.

• The Packers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

• The Packers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on grass.

• The Packers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight-up win.

• The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.

• The Packers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games in October.

Not only is New England missing Mac Jones, but the numbers also aren’t in their favor. The Pats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last five games against opponents with a winning record.

Green Bay has had a different player lead the team in receiving yards in each of their first three games. That means their offense has become more diverse and Rodgers has more weapons. That should leave the New England defense guessing all game long. And that’s certainly bad news for a team without its starting QB.

Patriots vs Packers Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in six out of the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Patriots and Packers. The under is also 2-1 in their last three games played at Lambeau Field.

New England Patriots over/under trends:

• Over is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games overall.

• Over is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Over is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.

• Over is 5-2 in the Patriots’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.

• Over is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games in October.

• Over is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Under is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 road games.

• Under is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games in Week 4.

• Under is 24-7 in the Patriots’ last 31 games on grass.

• Under is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

Green Bay Packers over/under trends:

• Under is 4-0 in the Packers’ last 4 games overall.

• Under is 8-0 in the Packers’ last 8 games in October.

• Under is 4-1 in the Packers’ last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

• Under is 4-1 in the Packers’ last 5 games on grass.

• Under is 9-3 in the Packers’ last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

• Under is 16-6 in the Packers’ last 22 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Under is 7-3 in the Packers’ last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-0 in the Packers’ last 4 games against a team with a losing record.

• Over is 4-1 in the Packers’ last 5 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 5-2 in the Packers’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.

• Over is 9-4 in the Packers’ last 13 games in Week 4.

The under is a combined 5-1 in the six total games played by these two teams this season. The Green Bay defense has allowed an average of 11 points per game in their last two games played. New England has scored just an average of 16.67 points per game in their three games played this season. They will be without Mac Jones.

Prediction: Under 40.5

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