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The New Orleans Pelicans travel to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat at the FTX Arena on Wednesday night.
New Orleans heads to this game with nine losses in their last 10 games played and five consecutive road losses. New Orleans has the worst record in the NBA at 2-13 SU and they are already a far eight games behind their division leaders Dallas Mavericks in the Southwest standings. The Pelicans are still awaiting the return of franchise player Zion Williamson who has not played a game this season while recuperating a foot injury.
Miami has won two straight games after dropping three of four. The Heat are 9-5 on the season and they have 1.5 games behind the surprising Washington Wizards. The Heat is the best ATS team in the league at 10-4 ATS and they have covered seven out of their last 10 assignments. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both questionable for this game but the Heat have more than enough firepower left to win this game.
New Orleans Pelicans
Injuries have been a big issue for the Pelicans to start the season as they have been without Zion Williamson who is still recuperating from a foot injury he suffered last season. Brandon Ingram is also hurt and has yet to regain his All-Star form.
Jonas Valanciunas has been the Pelicans’ top scorer at 19.6 points per game while also grabbing 13.3 rebounds per contest. Devonte Graham is scoring an average of 15.7 points per game while leading the Pelicans in passing at 5.2 assists per night. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is also contributing 15.0 points and 4.2 rebounds per game but nothing beats having your best player on the court.
The Pelicans are ranked 26th in scoring at 102.0 points per game this season. New Orleans is also 15tth in rebounding at 45.5 boards grabbed per contest and ae 13th in passing at 23.6 assists per game.
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are off to a strong start behind the stellar play of Tyler Herro who is currently the odds on favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year. Miami has also gotten a big lift from offseason acquisition Kyle Lowry who has provided the team with experience and veteran smarts.
Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring with his 23.6 PPG scoring average while also grabbing 5.5 rebounds and issuing 5.1 assists per game. Butler is also the team leader with 2.1 steals per game. Bam Adebayo is posting a double-double with 19.2 points and 11.1 rebounds per game while Herro is putting up 21.9 points per game.
Miami ranks 6th in the league in scoring at 110.1 points per game. They are the top rebounding team in the NBA at 48.6 boards grabbed per contest and are 10th in passing at 23.8 assists per game this season.
Who Wins?
The Pelicans are 1-10 SU in their last 10 games played. New Orleans is 0-6 SU in their last six games played against the Eastern Conference, and 1-7 SU in eight road games played this season.
The Heat are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played. Miami is 4-1 SU in five home games played this season, 4-2 SU in their last six Wednesday games, and 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Southwest division.
Head to head, Miami Heat have won six out of their last 10 games played against New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans have won just once in their last 10 games and although that win came two games ago, New Orleans was back to its losing ways against the Wizards the last time out. The Heat recently lost three of four but have since won back to back, including a victory over the Utah Jazz.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been listed as questionable but the Heat without the two are still much better off than the Pelicans without Zion Williamson. Tyler Herro is having a fantastic start to his season and is proving doubters wrong.
Both teams are playing with different energy levels right now and the Heat are the much better team in this matchup.
Prediction: Miami Heat
Other Bets to Make
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games played. The Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games played, 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss, 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Wednesday games.
Miami is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at home, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Western Conference, 5-0 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a road winning percentage below .400, 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against opponents with a losing record, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after an SU win, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after an ATS win, and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring 100 points in their previous game.
Head to head, Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games played against the Pelicans. The Heat are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against the Pelicans.
Pelicans
+8 (-110)
Heat
-8 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/17/2021
Life has been tough for the Pelicans without Zion Williamson. It’s going to be even tougher against a team loaded with shooters like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. That’s not even counting Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
The Heat have been one of the best all-around teams in the league this season. They have one of the best defenses in the NBA and are 6th in the league in scoring at 110.1 points per game this season. Miami is also the best ATS team in the league at 10-4 ATS.
The Pelicans simply do not have the firepower to match Mianii’s scoring prowess and I won’t be surprised if this turns out to be a double-digit win for the Heat. Give me the home team to win big.
Prediction: Heat -8
The under is 21-6-1 in the Pelicans’ last 28 games played overall. The total has gone under in each of their last seven games played on the road. The under is 6-1 in their last seven games after a straight-up loss, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS loss, 5-1-1 in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five road games against an opponent with a winning home record, and 4-0 in their last four Wednesday games.
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Heat. The over is 6-0 in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 7-1 in their last eight home games against an opponent with a losing road record, 5-1 in their last six games after a road trip of 7 or more days, 4-1 in their last five games when playing on one day rest, 5-2 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 30-14 in their last 44 games against an opponent with a winning percentage below .400.
Head to head, the total has gone under in each of the last six meetings between these two teams. The under is also 4-0 in their last four games played in Miami.
Over
219.5 (-110)
Under
219.5 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/17/2021
The Pelicans are among the worst scoring teams in the league at 102.0 points per game scored or 26th overall. New Orleans has scored only 100 or fewer points in six out of their last eight games played. Their defense has been terrible but the Pelicans are also in the bottom half in the league when it comes to pace so they won’t be in a hurry to score points here.
Miami isn’t just one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but they are also just 22nd in pace and 16th in average possession length in offense. Miami also makes their opponents work hard for every shot by ranking 29th in defensive possession length at 15 seconds. Although the Heat seem to favor the OVER, I’m gonna go with a low-scoring game here.
Prediction: Under 219.5
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