New Orleans Pelicans vs Phoenix Suns 04/26/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns meet again to continue their best-of-seven first-round playoff series on Tuesday night at the Footprint Center in Phoenix.

New Orleans stunned Phoenix in Game 4 to even the series and reduce it to a Best-of-Three affair beginning with Game 5. Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas exploded for the Pelicans in Game 4 to lead them to a double-digit win over the top-seeded Phoenix Suns. Chris Paul struggled in the loss and without Booker, the Suns easily lost by double-digits.

Game 5 is the most crucial in a 2-2 series with 180 of 219 teams winning the fifth game or 82% have going on to win the series. Of course, it wasn’t supposed to be like this for the Suns. But now that they’re here, they need to fight with all that they have to beat the stubborn Pelicans.

New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans were supposed to be down 3-1 or even swept by now. But here they are, tied 2-2 with the top-seeded Phoenix Suns after a huge Game 4 win. Brandon Ingram starred for the Pelicans again with 30 points, becoming the first player in team history to score 30 or more points in three consecutive playoff games. Jonas Valanciunas also scored a playoff career-high 26 points in Game 4 as he was unstoppable down low.

New Orleans outrebounded Phoenix again in Game 4 48-33 and grabbed 19 offensive rebounds. They were also the more aggressive team on offense and were rewarded with 42 free throw attempts and 32 foul shots made. Ingram is averaging 29.8 points per game in the series while C.J. McCollum has been huge with his 24 points per game scoring for New Orleans.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns look to bounce back from a poor Game 4 effort that has given the Pelicans a new lease on life. Phoenix has struggled without Devin Booker and with Booker not expected to return in this series, they have to find ways to win without him. Doing that during the regular season wasn’t this difficult but this is the playoffs where teams play against each other in a series so the Suns have to make adjustments.

Chris Paul scored just four points in Game 4 and he needs to lead the way for the Suns. CP3 scored 30 in Game 1 and 28 in Game 3, both wins for the Suns. Deandre Ayton scored 23 points with 8 rebounds for the Suns but he could not stop Valanciunas on the other end. Meanwhile, Javale McGee added 14 points for the Suns in Game 4. The Suns committed 12 turnovers each in Games 2 and 4, which they lost. On the other hand, Phoenix had a combined 14 turnovers in Games 1 and 3, both wins for them.

Who Wins?

The Pelicans are 4-2 SU in their last six games played. New Orleans is 3-2 SU in their last five games played on the road, and 4-2 SU in their last six April games.

The Suns are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games played. Phoenix is 12-6 SU in their last 18 games against the Western Conference, 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against the Southwest Division, and only 2-2 SU in their last four games played at home.

Head to head, the Suns have won six out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

After an easy double-digit Game 1 win, it looked like the Suns would be OK. But once they took their foot off the gas pedal in Game 2, the Pelicans have taken advantage and now they honestly believe they can beat the Suns in the series. With New Orleans winning twice in the last three games, the series is tied 2-2 heading to Game 5.

The Pelicans have outrebounded the Suns in each of the four games of the series. New Orleans also played more aggressively in Game 4, getting to the foul line 27 more times than the Suns while making 22 more free throws. The Pelicans defense also shackled Chris Paul in Game 4, holding CP3 down to four points on 2-8 shooting and without a free throw attempt.

The series heads back to Phoenix but at this point, the Pelicans don’t care as they already won there in Game 2. However, I expect Paul and the Suns to play with a sense of urgency here and with this game played at their court, the Suns should shoot better on Tuesday night.

Phoenix’s mistake was to give New Orleans hope in Game 2. Now they are thriving. However, this is still a very talented Phoenix team even without Booker. Just so long as Chris Paul plays his game on Tuesday night, the Suns should be okay. I do not remember the last time CP3 had back-to-back bad games. He should bounce back here.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns

Other Bets to Make

The Pelicans are 4-2 ATS in their last six games played. New Orleans is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference quarterfinals games, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as road underdogs, 4-2 ATS in their last six games against opponents from the Western Conference, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against the Pacific Division.

However, New Orleans is also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a straight up win of more than 10 points, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as betting underdogs, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.

The Suns are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played. Phoenix is 1-3 ATS in their last four games played at home, 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as betting favorites, 1-4 ATS in their last five Tuesday games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one day rest.

Phoenix is, however, 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as playoff favorites, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game.

The Pelicans should have the momentum heading to this contest with Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum leading the offensive charge. Jonas Valanciunas has also been a force to reckon with inside the paint. However, even without Devin Booker, this Suns’ lineup is loaded with scorers who can pick up the slack. It’s just that the Pelicans played better in the previous game and Chris Paul had an unusually poor outing.

I don’t expect Chris Paul to have two straight off nights. With an all-important game here, Phoenix’s veteran leader should come up big for the Suns and his performance is going to rub off on the likes of Ayton, Bridges, Cam Johnson, Cam Payne, and Shamet. With Paul and the Phoenix offense on a roll, the Suns should be able to cover this modest spread while also taking a 3-2 series lead.

Prediction: Suns -6.5

The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Pelicans. The over is 5-0 in their last five Tuesday games, 8-1 in their last nine games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 5-1 in their last six games as betting underdogs, 5-1 in their last six conference quarterfinals games, 4-1 in their last five games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record.

The total has gone under in 8 out of the last 12 games played by the Suns The under is 5-1 in their last six home games, 5-1 in their last six games as home favorites, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS loss, 4-1 in their last five home games against an opponent with a winning losing road record, 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after a straight up loss, 6-2 in their last 8 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, and 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score an average of 227 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, including 228.33 in their last three games played. The over is 3-1 in the series so far with only game 1 going under the total.

Phoenix disappointed their fans the first time around as they were forced to a 1-1 split by the Pelicans. Good thing was, they won Game 3 in New Orleans to steal home-court advantage back. With the series heading back to Phoenix, look for the Suns’ supporting cast to show up here. The Likes of Jay Crowder, Cam Johnson, and Javale McGee should deliver big games for the Suns.

On the other side, Brandon Ingram has been making the Suns’ defense look bad through four games. He should be able to put up his usual numbers here. Then there is C.J. McCollum who has been an excellent pick-up for the Pelican as he has delivered in the series. This should be a high-scoring game.

Prediction: Over 215.5

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