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The Philadelphia 76ers travel to the Big Easy to play the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Not A Good Month
February is the month of Love but it has not been the month for the team from the City of Brotherly Love as the Philadelphia 76ers have struggled to a 4-4 SU record this month. To make matters worse for the Sixers, All-Star center Joel Embiid has missed the last two games with soreness in his knee. Although and MRI revealed that there is no structural damage on the knee, Embiid is declared out and will be re-evaluated this week.
Embiid leads the Sixers with 27.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Without him, Jimmy Butler should pick up the slack for Philly as Butler is averaging 18.7 points and 1.9 steals per game. Likewise, the Sixers will need a big offensive night from the recently-acquired Tobias Harris who is averaging 19.0 points and 7.8 rebounds per game for his new team. Ben Simmons is averaging 17.0 points, 8.9 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game for the Sixers.
Philadelphia is the #5 scoring team in the league at 115.7 points per game this season. The Sixers rank 3rd in passing with 27.3 dimes per contest while they are also ranked 6th in rebounding at 46.8 boards grabbed per contest. Philly is only 20th in scoring defense at 112.3 opponent points per game allowed.
76ers
+100
Pelicans
-120
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/25/19
Pelicans’ Uncomfortable Situation
The Pelicans continue to play in an uncomfortable situation with the team holding on to superstar Anthony Davis who requested for a trade earlier this month. The Pelicans have been forced to play AD or face league sanctions but on Saturday night, the team rested Davis against the Lakers but the team picked up the upset win over LeBron and Co.
Davis is the Pelicans’ leader in most statistical departments but because he is being played with minutes restrictions, the onus of New Orleans is now with Jrue Holiday. Holiday is averaging 21.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 1.6 steals per game as the new main man. Former Laker Julius Randle is having a good one with the Pels as he is averaging 20.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. E’Twaun Moore and Elfrid Payton are averaging 12.3 and 10.2 points per game, respectively.
New Orleans is ranked 4th in the league in team scoring at 115.7 points per game. They are also the 4th best passing team in the NBA with an average of 26.8 assists per game. The Pelicans are ranked 4th in rebounding with 47.0 boards per contest and they are 27th in scoring defense at 115.0 opponent points per game allowed.
Who Wins?
Philadelphia is 6-4 SU in its last 10 games played and 3-1 SU in their last four road games. New Orleans is 4-6 SU in its last 10 games played and they Pelicans are 3-3 SU in their previous six home games. Head to head, the Sixers are 4-2 SU in their last six meetings against the Pelicans.
The Sixers will be without Embiid again for this game and while they struggled without him against a Portland team that had Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter, they won’t have the same problem of the Pelicans play without Anthony Davis. But the problem is that Davis may be back in this game, although it’s uncertain up to what extent he is going to play, if ever. Philly was outrebounded 61-42 against Portland and that will be a problem with Davis, if he plays.
Despite their situation, the Pelicans have been playing hard. Elfrid Payton has scored 15 and 14 points in his first two games since returning from a right ankle sprain while the Pelicans bench is coming off a game against the Lakers where they scored 42 points behind 18 from Cheick Diallo and 17 from Ian Clark. Julius Randle has also played well as New Orleans’ main frontcourt player. Randle scored 33 and 24 points in the Pelicans’ last two victories.
The Sixers are just an even 14-14 SU on the road while the Pelicans are 16-11 SU at home this season. Between Embiid’s absence and Anthony Davis playing (if he is) restricted minutes, I think the Sixers are a good value pick here at even money. Remember that J.J. Redick shot just 1-10 versus Portland and you can’t expect him to have many bad nights. If the Sixers can keep up with the Pelicans in board work, I think their offense is going to win this game.
I’m picking the Philadelphia 76ers to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on 2/25/19.
Other Bets To Make
The Sixers are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games played. Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS in its last four games played. The Pelicans are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played and 4-2 ATS in their last six home games. Head to head, the Sixers are 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
76ers
+1 (-105)
Pelicans
-1 (-115)
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/25/19
The Sixers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Monday games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Southwest Division, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing straight up record. The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points in their previous game and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. If you like trends, go with the Pelicans but I favor the Sixers because even without Embiid, they still have plenty of offensive weapons at their disposal.
Prediction: 76ers +1
The under is 7-3 in the Sixers’ last 10 games played. The total has gone under in three out of the last four road games played by Philadelphia. The over is 5-2 in the Pelicans’ last seven games played. New Orleans has seen the total go over in three out of their last four home games.
76ers
O 238 -115
Pelicans
U 238 -105
Odds from betonline.ag as of 2/25/19
The under is 5-1 in the Sixers’ last six games after a straight up loss and the under is also 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a winning home record. The Pelicans have seen the total go under in their last four Monday games and the total has gone under in five out of the last six games after a win of more than 10 points. The Sixers have averaged 110.5 points per game without Embiid last week. I think 238 is too high for a game that may be played without both Embiid and AD.
Prediction: Under 238
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