Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees 04/05/2023 MLB Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees close out their three-game set on Wednesday at Yankees Stadium.

These teams split the first two games with New York winning the series opener 8-1 and the Phillies bouncing back on Tuesday with a 4-1 win. Aaron Nola will open on top of the mound for Philadelphia while Gerrit Cole will pitch opposite him for New York.

The Yankees are 3-2 on the young season while the Phillies are 1-4 to start the year.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies finally picked up their first win of the season when they defeated the Yankees 4-1 on Tuesday behind Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber hit his 200th career home run and added an RBI as the Phillies became the last team to pick up a win this season. The NL champions entered Tuesday with only one home run while being outscored 37-12 in their worst start to a season since going 0-7 in 1934.

Schwarber hit a career-high 46 home runs last season but opened this campaign with only one hit in 17 at-bats. He drove the second pitch from Domingo Herman into the right field seats. Brandon Marsh also went deep for the Yankees after committing two errors during Monday’s 8-1 defeat. In that game, Marsh was unable to make a shoestring catch in center on DJ LaMahieu’s leadoff triple and overrunning third base for the third out of the fifth inning.

Aaron Nola will make the start for the Phillies. Nola lasted only 3.2 innings during their 11-7 loss to the Rangers last week. The 29-year-old right-hander allowed four hits with two walks and four strikeouts. Texas scored five runs on four hits with one home run. The Phillies are 1-2 in Nola’s last three starts again the Yankees. Nola is 1-1 with an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 0.79 in 19 innings of work against New York.

New York Yankees

The Yankees dropped to 3-2 on the season after Tuesday’s loss. New York entered Tuesday’s game with a two-game winning streak but German surrendered 4 runs in 4 ⅔ innings while striking out 8 and walking none. He threw 30 curveballs, 21 changeups, 18 fastballs, and six sinkers.

LaMahieu went 1-4 and hit the Yankees’ only home run and scoring run in that game while Aaron Judge went 0-3 while striking out twice. Judge, who set the league’s home run record last season, is hitting at a .350 clip this season and already has two home runs 4 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.059 in the young season.

Gerrit Cole will open on top of the mound for the pinstripes. Cole won his first start of the season after allowing only three hits with 2 walks and 11 strikeouts in six scoreless innings pitched against the San Francisco Giants. This will be Cole’s 9th career start versus the Phillies. He is 5-3 with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.223 versus Philadelphia. He also has a 17-10 record with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.004 when pitching at Yankee Stadium.

Phillies vs Yankees SU Prediction

The Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 games played at Yankee Stadium.

Philadelphia Phillies SU trends:

• The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 overall.
• The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 road games.
• The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Phillies are 17-40 in their last 57 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 interleague road games against a right-handed starter.
• The Phillies are 6-20 in their last 26 interleague road games.
• The Phillies are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played against the American League.
• The Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games versus the American League East.
• The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series
• The Phillies are 0-5 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
• The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague games.
• The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games against a right-handed starter.
• The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 games on grass.
• The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
• The Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The Phillies are 0-6 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

New York Yankees SU trends:

• The Yankees are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games played overall.
• The Yankees are 59-25 in their last 84 home games.
• The Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague home games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games.
• The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Yankees are 16-5 in their last 21 interleague home games.
• The Yankees are 9-3 in their last 12 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• The Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 games against the National League East.
• The Yankees are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played against the National League.
• The Yankees are 92-37 in their last 129 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Yankees are 19-8 in their last 27 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Yankees are 45-19 in their last 64 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 Game 3s of a series.
• The Yankees are 9-4 in their last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Yankees are 72-33 in their last 105 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400.
• The Yankees are 45-21 in their last 66 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Yankees are 36-17 in their last 53 Wednesday games.
• The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.

These teams have opposite starts this season. Philadelphia has been outscored 37-12 in their first four games of the season while New York has outscored their opponents 24-6 in their first four games of the year while posting two shutouts.

Nola opened the season strong before getting roughed up in the 9-run 4th inning against the Rangers in his season debut. On the other hand, Cole stifled the Giants in his first start while the Yankees played very well last week.

New York has also looked impressive on the plate while the Phillies are giving up tons of runs to start the season. Give me the Yankees to win this game.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Phillies vs Yankees Over/Under Prediction

The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 games played between these two teams. The over is 7-0-1 n their last 8 games played in New York.

Philadelphia Phillies over/under trends:

• The over is 3-2 in the Phillies’ last 5 games played.
• The over is 5-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 8 road games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Phillies’ last 4 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter.
• The over is 4-0 in the Phillies’ last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The over is 9-2-2 in the Phillies’ last 13 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The over is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last 7 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 5-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 8 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 8 against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-2-1 in the Phillies’ last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 7-1 in the Phillies’ last 8 Wednesday games.
• The under is 4-2 in the Phillies’ last 6 games played in April.

New York Yankees over/under trends:

• The under is 11-4 in the Yankees’ last 15 overall.
• The under is 7-3 in the Yankees’ last 10 home games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The under is 8-2 in the Yankees’ last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 6-2 in the Yankees’ last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 6-2-1 in the Yankees’ last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 11-4 in the Yankees’ last 15 on grass.
• The under is 10-4 in the Yankees’ last 14 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The under is 34-14-3 in the Yankees’ last 51 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 4-1 in the Yankees’ last 5 games played against the National League East Division.
• The under is 7-3 in the Yankees’ last 10 home games against a right-handed starter.
• The over is 3-1-2 in the Yankees’ last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The over is 5-2 in the Yankees’ last 7 interleague games.
• The over is 6-0 in the Yankees’ last 6 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record.
• The over is 6-0 in the Yankees’ last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• The over is 4-0 in the Yankees’ last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
• The over is 5-1 in the Yankees’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The over is 5-2 in the Yankees’ last 7 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.

The Phillies entered Tuesday’s games having one over thrice in their first four games of the season. During that stretch, they are allowing 9.25 runs per game while scoring 3 runs a game themselves. Philly has allowed at least 8 runs thrice in their first four-game played and their games have registered an average total of 12.25 runs per game this season.

The Yankees have seen the over hit twice in their first four games played The two ties it went under was when the Yankees pitching staff produced shutouts. New York is scoring an average of 6 runs per game while allowing two per contest.

I think Nola’s struggles continue here while the Yankees will have a fairly good time scoring runs.

Prediction: Over 7

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