Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts 11/28/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts on Monday Night Football.

Pittsburgh is 3-7 SU on the season as it continues to transition from the Ben Roethlisberger era with rookie Kenny Pickett as their new quarterback. The Steelers lost the Cincinnati Bengals 37-30 last week and are just 1-4 SU in their last five games played.

Indianapolis is 4-6-1 SU on the season as the team is also transitioning to a new QB in Matt Ryan whom they acquired from the Atlanta Falcons during the offseason. The Colts have a new interim head coach in former all-pro center Jeff Saturday and the team is 0-2 in his first two games as head coach.

With the playoff hope of both teams hanging on a thread, both need a win here badly if they want to stay alive.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are starting a new era with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett as their new starter. But change isn’t something that the team is accustomed to. Ben Roethlisberger was their starter for as long as I can remember and the team has had only 3 head coaches in the last six decades.

So it isn’t a surprise why this team is struggling to start the 2022 season with Pickett at the helm. Pickett however has shown flashes of brilliance, like last week, when he threw for 265 yards with 1 TD and no interception. However, the offense put up only 10 points after the first half and the defense allowed 37 in a losing effort.

T.J. Watt is back but the Steelers’ defense ranks just 26th in scoring and only 31st against the pass. Pittsburgh is also just 24th in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense so it’s no surprise where they are in the standings right now. Najee Harris has rushed for 550 yards on 148 carries with 3 TDs while Pat Freirmuth has caught 44 passes for 482 receiving yards with 1 TD grab.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are also going through a change with Matt Ryan as their new quarterback. But like the Steelers with Pickett, Indianapolis has struggled this season. The struggles have led to the ouster of Frank Reich as head coach and the arrival of Jeff Saturday as his replacement. Indianapolis is 0-2 under Saturday but they have played with a different and better energy.

Saturday re-inserted Ryan into the starting unit to give the team more stability on offense. Then Saturday featured a healthy Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 22 carries for 147 yards with one score two weeks ago. He then put up 82 yards on 22 carries during last week’s loss to the Eagles. But Indianapolis allowed two TDs in the final quarter, which helped the Eagles beat them.

The Colts rank just 31st in the NFL in turnover differential. Indianapolis is 26th in rushing offense and 31st in scoring offense this season. They have been solid at 11th in scoring defense and are 12th against the run and 6th against the pass. Taylor has 693 rushing yards on 151 carries with 3 TDs while Michael Pittman Jr. has caught 67 passes for 678 yards with 1 TD.

Steelers vs Colts SU Prediction

The Steelers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Colts. Pittsburgh is also 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh Steelers SU trends:

• The Steelers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games played.

• The Steelers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.

• The Steelers are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games played against the AFC.

• The Steelers are 1-3 SU in their last 4 road games against the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts SU trends:

• The Colts are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played.

• The Colts are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played.

• The Colts are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games played against the AFC North Division.

• The Colts are 1-5 SU in their last 6 Monday games.

The Steelers will need rookie Kenny Pickett to have a good game in order to win this contest. Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris has played very well over the last two weeks but success for the Steelers will have to run through Pickett’s play.

Last week, I thought that Pickett did enough to win the game. The Steelers’ QB completed just 25 of 42 passes but he threw for 265 yards with one TD and did not throw a pick for the second straight game. However, it was the Steelers’ defense that didn’t hold their end of the bargain as they allowed over 20 points for the first time this season when NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt is on the field.

When Jeff Saturday took over the Indianapolis coaching reigns from Frank Reich, the best move he made was to give back the keys to the car to veteran Matt Ryan. Despite Ryan’s disappointing season, he still gives the team a better chance of winning games than the likes of Sam Ehlinger who threw for 304 passing yards with 1 INT while getting sacked 11 times in two games.

Running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 231 yards in 44 carries over the last two days. The key for the Colts here will be producing multiple touchdowns which means Ryan and his receiving corps need to help Taylor with the offensive load. Indianapolis scored only one TD last week and that ended up in a loss.

Pickett needs to play under control and avoid committing turnovers. He was able to do that last week and has to do it again this week while hoping the defense holds. If this becomes a low-scoring game, Pittsburgh has a chance to steal this game from Indianapolis.

But the Colts have proved they can win close games, winning similar contests in week 3 and week 5. Indianapolis has been held to 17 or fewer points in all their six losses this season. If they can score more and probably get two or more touchdowns, they have a good shot here. The Colts are 3-1 SU and ATS this season when scoring two or more TDs in a game.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

Steelers vs Colts ATS Prediction

The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Colts. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers ATS trends:

• The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.

• The Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The Steelers are 14-29-2 ATS in their last 45 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

• The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.

• The Steelers are 2-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

• The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.

• The Steelers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts ATS trends:

• The Colts are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games played.

• The Colts are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games played.

• The Colts are 4-4-1 ATS in their last 9 games played against the AFC.

• The Colts are 2-1 ATS in their last 3 home games against the AFC

• The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.

• The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.

• The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.

• The Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played as betting favorites.

• The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

The return to health of running back Jonathan Taylor has been a boost to the Colts’ offense. However, Taylor faces a challenge against the no. 7 ranked run defense in the NFL this season. If the Steelers are able to contain Taylor, then the Colts need Ryan to throw more to open things up for the running game.

On the other side, the Colts have a pesky pass defense that should create issues for Pickett and the Steelers’ passing game. Indianapolis held Jalen Hurts to fewer than 200 passing yards and Pickett is nowhere near Hurts right now. With Pickett struggling, the Steelers will find it hard to keep up with the Colts.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts -2.5

Steelers vs Colts Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in six out of the last 8 games played between these two teams. The under is, however, 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh Steelers over/under trends:

• The under is 6-0 in the Steelers’ last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The under is 6-1 in the Steelers’ last 7 games following an ATS loss.

• The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The under is 19-7 in the Steelers’ last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record.

• The under is 38-15 in the Steelers’ last 53 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• The under is 5-2 in the Steelers’ last 7 Monday games.

• The under is 41-17-1 in the Steelers’ last 59 versus a team with a losing record.

• The under is 46-20-1 in the Steelers’ last 67 road games.

• The under is 45-21-2 in the Steelers’ last 68 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Indianapolis Colts over/under trends:

• The under is 14-2 in the Colts’ last 16 games overall.

• The under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last 7 home games.

• The under is 9-1 in the Colts’ last 10 games on field turf.

• The under is 7-1 in the Colts’ last 8 games following an ATS win.

• The under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.

• The under is 11-2 in the Colts’ last 13 versus AFC.

• The over is 4-1 in the Colts’ last 5 Monday games.

• The under is 6-2 in the Colts’ last 8 games in Week 12.

• The under is 6-2 in the Colts’ last 8 games versus a team with a losing record.

• The over is 7-3 in the Colts’ last 10 games in November.

This is a low total but Indianapolis has been playing outstanding on defense as of late. They have quickly become one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, despite dealing with injury issues.

Indianapolis’ ability to put pressure on the QB is going to trouble Kenny Pickett all night long. If they choose to run, the Colts also have a strong front seven so scoring will be at a premium on Monday night.

Meanwhile, I expect the Colts to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor playing well as of late. They will want to keep the pressure off Matt Ryan here. I think the Colts play a safe and deliberate game. This one should be a low scoring affair.

Prediction: Under 42.5

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