Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers 10/04/2021 NFL Monday Night Football Preview

The Las Vegas Raiders hit the road and travel to SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4’s edition of Monday Night Football.

Las Vegas heads to L.A. with a clean slate, having won its first three games of the season. The Raiders and Arizona Cardinals are the only remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL with the Cardinals already taking care of their Week 4 assignment. Los Angeles is 2-1 on the season and they are coming off an impressive road win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.

The Raiders failed to cover the 3.5 spread against the Dolphins the last time out, winning the game by a three-point margin. Las Vegas is 2-1 ATS after three games. Meanwhile, the Chargers are also 2-1 ATS on the season and they won outright last week as seven-point spread underdogs against Kansas City.

These teams have split their last 10 meetings but the Chargers have won five out of the last eight games. In their most recent encounter, the Chargers won 30-27 at Allegiant Stadium on December 17, 2020.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are off to their best start since 2002 and Derek Carr is leading the league in passing with a total of 1,203 yards after three games. Carr has thrown six touchdowns and two interceptions while being named as the AFC Offensive Player of the Month for September.

Carr has thrown two touchdowns in each of his first three games and he has also passed for at least 300 yards per game with his highest being the 435 against the Baltimore Ravens during their season opener.

The Raiders are also the league leaders in total offense at 471.0 yards per game and are ranked 6th overall in scoring at 30.0 points per game scored.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are also off to a good start with their 2-1 mark and they are coming off their biggest win in a while, a road victory over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Sophomore QB Justin Herbert has passed for 956 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. Last season, Herbert set a rookie record with 31 passing touchdowns. He had four against the Chiefs last Sunday.

Herbert showed poise under pressure when he connected with Mike Williams on that game-winning four-yard TD pass against Kansas City. The Chargers are ranked ninth in total offense at 394.7 yards per game but they are just 22nd in scoring at 22.3 points per game scored this season. Last season, Herbert passed for 640 yards with four touchdowns in his first two games against the Raiders.

Who Wins?

Las Vegas is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Raiders are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played on the road, but 2-8 SU in their last 10 October games.

Los Angeles is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Chargers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 Week 4 games played, but are just 2-5 SU in their last seven October games.

Head to head, the Chargers have won five out of the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Derek Carr leads the league in passing yards with 1,203 but most of that has to do with the Raiders trying to overcome early deficits and the Raiders’ lack of a consistent running game.

As for the Raiders, they are undefeated but I can’t say how good they really are based on their performance against Miami. Instead of cruising to a comfortable win, they allowed the Dolphins to take a 14-0 lead before making their move. Then after taking a double-digit lead, they blew it and the game went to OT.

But what I like about the Chargers here is that they’ve defended the pass very well this season and are barely giving up over 200 passing yards per game. Los Angeles has also forced six turnovers in three games and their defense should be the determining factor in this game.

Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers

Other Bets to Make

The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played. Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the AFC, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Week 4 games, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 October games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on field turf, 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight up win, and 1-4 in their last five games when accumulating more than 350 yards of offense in their previous game.

The Chargers are 6-1 ATS on their last seven games played. Los Angeles is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games when accumulating more than 350 offensive yards in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC West, 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five October games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.

Justin Herbert is having a fine start and you can argue that he may be playing just as well as Derek Carr is right now. The main difference between these teams is that the Chargers are ranked 6th in passing defense and the Raiders are in the middle of the pack in that statistical department.

With RB Josh Jacobs missing the team’s last two games and still questionable for this one, the Raiders will be forced to go to Carr more often but he won’t have as much success against a good pass defense.

We’re laying three points to a team whose two wins have come via a game-winning field goal. The Raiders are undefeated, but they are nearer lucky than good right now. I’ll go with the home team and the side that play better defense.

Prediction: Chargers -3.

The total has gone over in seven out of the last eight games played by the Raiders. The over is also 8-1 in their last nine games against the AFC, 5-1-1 in their last seven October games, and 6-2 in their last eight road games. However, the total has gone under in four out of their last five Monday games. The under is also 6-2 in their last eight games as road underdogs.

The total has gone under in four out of the last five games played by the Chargers. The under is 13-4-1 in their last 18 games against an opponent with a winning road record, 20-8 in their last 28 home games, 5-2 in their last seven Monday games, 4-1 in their last five games as betting favorites, 4-0 in their last four games as home favorites, and 4-0 in their last four games on field turf.

Head to head, the total has gone under in 18 out of the last 24 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.

The Raiders are the 6th highest-scoring team in the league at 30.0 points per game. But most of their offense comes through the air and the Chargers have one of the best passing defenses in the league right now.

I don’t expect the Chargers to shut down the Raiders but they should be able to limit them. On the other hand, Los Angeles is only 19th in the league in scoring at 22.3 points per game and they scored only 17 points in their season home opener.

This won’t be a low-scoring game but 51.5 seems too high for a total when you have the Chargers. Los Angeles went under 40 in their first two games. They hit the 54 total in their last game but that was because they were playing the Chiefs. Carr has been good but he is no Mahomes.

Prediction: Under 51.5

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