Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs 10/10/2022 NFL Odds and Pick

The Las Vegas Raiders look for their second straight win when they visit Arrowhead Stadium for a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

Las Vegas defeated the Denver Broncos 32-23 last week to improve to 1-3 SU on the season. After losing their first three-game by an aggregate losing margin of 13 points, The Raiders are finally in the win column, the last team in the AFC West to pick up a victory. They are still at the bottom of the division standings with their 1-3 SU record.

The Kansas City Chiefs bounced back from a surprise 20-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts two weeks ago by defeating Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-31 in a high-scoring affair. The Chiefs are 3-1 SU on the season and are on top of the AFC West division team standings.

Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas finally got on board last week after being winless through Week 3. The game versus the Broncos went back and forth early but the Raiders took the lead for good with a Daniel Carson FG just before the end of the first half. Vegas never looked back and took the game 32-23. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 385-299 in total offense and held the edge in first downs at 25-12.

Vegas is 13th in passing offense at 243.3 yards per game and 14th in rushing at 113 yards per content. The Raiders are 10th in the NFL in scoring at 24.0 points per game this season. Derek Carr has completed 94 of 154 passes for 1,038 passing yards with six TD passes and four INTs this season. Josh Jacobs has rushed for 336 yards with two TDs on 70 carries while Davante Adams has caught 26 passes for 290 yards with three TD grabs.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs bounced back after they were stunned by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. Kansas City recovered a fumble on the opening kickoff to take a 7-0 lead just 46 into the game. The Chiefs took a 14-3 lead in the opening quarter and never looked back with the Bucs playing catchup the rest of the way. Kansas City outgained Tampa Bay 417-376 and dominated the possession time at 38:38 to 21:22 while forcing two turnovers.

Kansas City ranks 7th overall in passing offense at 267.8 yards per game. They are also 11th in rushing at 117 yards per contest. They rank 2nd in scoring this season at 32.3 points per game scored. Patrick Mahomes has completed 97 of 146 passes for 1,106 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the team with 208 rushing yards with two TDs on 41 carries. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce has caught 26 passes for 322 yards with three TD catches.

Who Wins?

The Raiders are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played against the Chiefs. Las Vegas is also 1-8 SU in their last 9 games played in Kansas City.

Las Vegas Raiders SU trends:

• The Raiders are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played overall.

• The Raiders are 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games.

• The Raiders are 2-5 SU in their last 7 Week 5 games.

Kansas City Chiefs SU trends:

• The Chiefs are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played overall.

• The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played on the road.

• The Chiefs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played in October.

Las Vegas put together its best all-around game of the season last week and it’s no surprise why they picked up their first win of the year in that game. The Raider defense still allowed Russell Wilson to make some big plays but overall, they made the plays that mattered most.

The Raiders shut down the Denver rushing attack in that game. Las Vegas also outgained Denver by 127 yards on the ground with Josh Jacobs rushing for 144 yards with two rush TDs. Derek Carr threw for only 188 yards while completing 21-34 passes. Carr did however rush for 40 yards on 7 carries.

Las Vegas got away with the win even if they did not force the Broncos to commit a single turnover. That can’t happen against Kansas City. Mahomes threw a game-altering INT during the Chiefs’ loss to the Colts two weeks ago and if the Raiders want to stop the KC offensive machine, they need to force turnovers.

At about this same time two years ago, the Raiders stunned the Chiefs 40-32 as 10.5-point underdogs. These teams have played thrice since that game and the Chiefs have dominated the Raiders 124-54 in total points scored during that span, winning all three games outright and going 2-1 ATS.

The Kansas City defense has held the Raiders to 23 total points in the last two meetings between these two teams so it’s not just Mahomes and the offense that has overwhelmed the Raiders.

Mahomes bounced back from his worst game of the season against the Colts two weeks ago by throwing 3 TD passes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend despite getting sacked three times. If Mahomes delivers that kind of performance, it will be hard for the Raiders to keep up on Monday.

Just like what they did to the Bucs last week, I think that the Chiefs are going to start fast here and build a big lead early in the game. The Raiders have a good offense but they don’t have the same kind of firepower as the KC offense. Neither does Carr have the inner Tom Brady in him to stage a comeback after falling behind big.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Raiders vs Chiefs ATS Prediction

The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played against the Chiefs. Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in Kansas City. The favorite is also 5-2 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The home team is also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games played between these two teams.

Las Vegas Raiders ATS trends:

• The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

• The Raiders are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 road games as betting underdogs.

• The Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.

• The Raiders are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games played in October.

• The Raiders are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the AFC West.

• The Raiders are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the AFC.

• The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5.

• The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous games.

Kansas City Chiefs ATS trends:

• The Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games played overall.

• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.

• The Chiefs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.

• The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.

• The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October.

• The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.

• The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win.

• The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 5.

• The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.

• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

• The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

• The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

The Chiefs have outscored the Raiders 16 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 23.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters. Kansas City has defeated the Raiders by 7 or more points in seven out of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams.

The closest game between these teams during that span was a 35-31 KC in 2020. In their most recent game played, the Chiefs mauled the Raiders 48-9. The Chiefs’ offense has not missed Tyreek Hill so far this season. I think it stays that way. This KC offense is humming and it should be able to get the job done and cover the spread.

Prediction: Chiefs -7

Raiders vs Chiefs Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in each of the last four meetings between the Raiders and Chiefs. The under is 11-3 in their last 14 games played in Kansas City.

Las Vegas Raiders over/under trends:

• Under is 5-4-1 in the Raiders’ last 10 games played overall.

• Under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last 5 road games.

• Under is 6-0 in the Raiders’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Under is 6-1 in the Raiders’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.

• Under is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last 6 games following an ATS win.

• Under is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• Under is 6-2 in the Raiders’ last 8 Monday games.

• Over is 8-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games in October.

• Over is 8-3 in the Raiders’ last 11 vs. AFC West.

• Under is 5-2 in the Raiders’ last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Kansas City Chiefs over/under trends:

• Over is 9-3 in the Chiefs’ last 12 games played overall.

• Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

• Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

• Over is 7-2 in the Chiefs’ last 9 games on grass.

• Over is 6-2 in the Chiefs’ last 8 games following an ATS win.

• Over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

• Over is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.

• Over is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 versus the AFC.

• Under is 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last 5 Monday games.

• Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

• Under is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

• Under is 34-16-1 in the Chiefs’ last 51 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

Regardless of the margin of victory, these two teams have played in a high-scoring contests in their recent matchups. The Raiders and Chiefs have combined for 50 or more points four times in their last five games played. Both teams have combined to score an average of 55.0 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 59.33 points per game in their most recent three-game played against each other.

Both teams are stacked on offense, at least on paper. The Chiefs’ offense has not missed a beat at all so far this season. With the high-powered Kansas City offense playing at home, these teams should produce another high-scoring game.

Prediction: Over 51.5

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