Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers 11/15/2021 NFL Odds and Pick

A battle of the NFC West concludes Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season as the Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Monday night.

The Rams are 7-2 on the season and they are in 2nd place in the division, behind only the 8-2 Arizona Cardinals. Los Angeles suffered a 28-16 home loss to the Tennessee Titans as 7-point favorites last Sunday. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a 3-5 record and are third in the division. San Francisco is coming off a 31-17 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals as 5.5 point favorites in Week 9.

San Francisco leads the all-time series between these teams at 72-67-3 and has won the last four meetings between these two teams. The 49ers won their last meeting 23-20 in Los Angeles on November 29, 2020.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams saw their four-game winning streak end at the hands of the Tennessee Titans. Los Angeles dropped to 7-2 and they are one-half game behind the Cardinals who own the tiebreaker against them. The Rams opened the scoring with a field goal but then gave up 21 consecutive points and did not score a touchdown until the final minute of the game.

Los Angeles held a 347-194 advantage in total offense. They also had the edge in first downs with 22 against only 14 for the Titans and also won the battle of possession time 32:21 to 27:39. However, they turned the ball over twice, including a pick-six. The Rams added WR Odell Beckham Jr. after he was released by the Cleveland Browns.

They are the 3rd best passing team in the NFL at 296.3 yards per game and are 20th in rushing offense at 103 yards per contest. The Rams are the 5th highest-scoring team in the league at 29 points per game and are 10th in scoring defense at 21.8 points per game allowed.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers could not follow up their win over the Bears as they could not take advantage of an Arizona team that didn’t have Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins. With the loss to the Cardinals, the 49ers dropped to third in the division, one-half game behind the last place Seahawks. The 49ers fell behind early 14-0 and 31-7 midway in the third quarter and were never in the game.

San Francisco was outgained 437-337 in total yards and they also lost the possession battle 36:47 to 23:13 while turning the ball over three times and failing to force a takeaway. Both the 49ers and Cardinals produced 22 first downs in the game.

They are ranked 13th in passing offense at 252.5 yards per game and are 14th in rushing offense at 113.1 yards per game. San Francisco ranks 18th in scoring at 23.1 points per game and 26th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

The Rams are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in their last six games played on the road. The 49ers are 1-5 SU in their last six games played. San Francisco is 0-8 SU in their last eight games played at home and 1-4 SU in their last five games against the NFC West division.

Matthew Stafford threw two first-half interceptions last week against the Titans and the Rams got off to a slow start. Stafford would finish the day with 294 passing yards and one touchdown but that wasn’t enough to come back from a 14-3 hole they dug early.

The 49ers had a golden opportunity to beat the Cardinals last week with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins out. However, they fell into a 14-0 first quarter hole that they were never able to get up from. Jimmy G went on to throw for 326 passing yards with two TDs and one interception in the loss.

Garropolo has done well this season but it’s been San Francisco’s defense that has been the issue during this 1-5 stretch for the 49ers. That defense has conceded an average of 26.3 points per game in this six-game period.

Prior to allowing the Titan to score 28 last week, the Rams defense held their last four opponents to 17.3 points per game. If the defense gets back on track, Los Angeles is going to pick up this road win.

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams

Other Bets to Make

Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. The Rams are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games against the NFC, 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a double-digit loss at home, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS loss, 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 games against the NFC, 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the NFC West, and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.

San Francisco is `1-5 ATS in their last six games played. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played against the NFC, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in their last six games played on grass, 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, 1-5 ATS after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games after rushing for 90 or fewer yards in their previous game.

San Francisco’s offense has sputtered all season long. After winning their first two games, the 49ers have lost five out of their last six games played. Losing the last time out to a Cardinals team that was led by Colt McCoy was inexcusable.

The 49ers have beaten the Rams in their last four meetings but right now, they simply don’t have the weapons to match what Los Angeles has. The Rams have gone all-in this season by bringing in Stafford during the offseason and most recently, Von Miler and Odell Beckham Jr.

Los Angeles is raring to bounce back from a dud of a performance last week and they should be able to take care of business against a reeling 49ers team. Even without Robert Woods, I think that the Rams will cover the spread easily and pick up the road win here.

Prediction: Rams -3.5

The total has gone under in six of the Rams” last nine games against the NFC West Division. The under is 4-1 in their last five double-digit home losses, 4-1 in their last five-week 10 games, 4-1 in their last five November games, 6-2 in their last eight games after a straight-up loss, 21-7-1 in their last 29 games as betting favorites, 6-2-1 in their last nine games against an opponent with a losing record, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after an ATS loss.

The total has gone under in five of San Francisco’s last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous outing. The under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games when allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last four games after picking up 90 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last four games as underdogs, 19-7 in their last 26 after double-digit home loss, 15-5-1 in their last 21 games when allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, and 7-3 in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.

The Rams have seen the under go 3-1-1 in their last five games including last week when they hit only a total of 44 points against a total of 53. San Francisco has seen the over go 5-3 in their last eight games including their last three. But the totals for those three games have been only 43, 40.5, and 45.

These two teams have hit the under in four out of their last six meetings including their two meetings last season where the totals were 43 and 40 points. Overall, they have combined to score an average of 50.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.

We know the Rams to be a very capable offensive team but look for their defense to shut down the San Francisco offense in this game.

Prediction: Under 50

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