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The Los Angeles Rams head to the Raymond James Stadium on Monday night to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the final game of week 11.
Los Angeles is coming off a 23-16 home win against NFC West division leaders Seattle Seahawks last week. The Rams used their bye week to regroup after the team suffered a loss to the Miami Dolphins in Tua Tagovailoa’s first NFL start two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers won on the road against the Carolina Panthers, 46-23, after suffering the worst loss of Tom Brady’s career in their previous outing.
The Rams lead their all-time head-to-head series 14-9 but the Buccaneers won a 55-40 shootout on the road in their last meeting on September 29, 2019.
L.A. Rams
The Los Angeles Rams bounced back from their loss to the Miami Dolphins with a solid 23-16 home win against the Seattle Seahawks last weekend. With the win, the Rams moved to within a one-half game of the Seahawks in the NFC West standings with a 6-3 record. The Rams can take the lead if they beat the Bucs on Monday night.
The Rams trailed 7-3 early on but took the lead for good after Darrell Henderson Jr.’s one-yard run with just over two minutes left in the first quarter. The Rams extended their lead to 10 in the second quarter and then never allowed the Seahawks to get closer. The Rams outgained the Seahawks 389-333 in total yards while holding a 24-20 edge in first downs. Los Angeles also controlled the clock from 33:36 to 26:24. The Rams’ defense also forced three turnovers while only committing one.
Jared Goff has completed 213-321 passes for 2,447 yards with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Cooper Kupp leads the receiving corps with 577 receiving yards on 53 catches with two touchdowns while Robert Woods has caught 42 passes for 469 yards with four TD grabs. Rookie Darrell Henderson Jr. leads the rushing attack with 486 rushing yards on 102 carries with four touchdowns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off their own bounce-back win. The Bucs rebounded from the worst loss of Tom Brady’s career with a 46-23 blowout of the Carolina Panthers on the road. The Bucs currently sit in second place in the NFC south team standings with their 7-3 record. They are one game behind the Saints who are 8-2 after beating the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
Tampa Bay trailed 14-7 after one quarter and forced a 17-17 deadlock at the half before exploding for a 12-0 third quarter that broke the game wide open. Ronald Jones had a 98-yard touchdown run and the Panthers never came closer than nine points while the Bucs scored two late touchdowns to put the game away. Tampa Bay had a commanding 544-187 advantage in total offense while Bucs picked up 30 first downs while only allowing 13. They also controlled the possession time at 36:05 to 23:55.
Tom Brady has passed for 2,739 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season while completing 254 of 385 passes. Mike Evans has 40 catches for 514 yards and eight touchdowns. Chris Godwin has 34 grabs for 412 receiving yards with two scores and Rob Bronkowski has caught 29 passes for 374 yards with four TD catches. Ronald Jones leads Tampa Bay on the ground with 730 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 143 carries. Leonard Fournette has also contributed 244 rushing yards with two scores on 59 carries.
Who Wins?
The Rams are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in their last seven games played on the road, and 7-1 SU in their last eight games played against the NFC. The Buccaneers are 4-1 SU in their last five games played. Tampa Bay is 3-1 SU in four home games played this season, and 4-2 SU in their last six November games. Head to head, the Rams are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Buccaneers.
The Rams have one of the most consistent running games in the league. They have rushed for more than 100 yards in eight of nine games played this season. However, they will face a Tampa Bay defense that is ranked 1st in stopping the run at 76.6 rushing yards per game allowed so something has to give here. Jared Goff will have his work cut out for him against a Tampa Bay defense that has 32 sacks and 12 interceptions this season.
Tampa Bay’s job won’t be easier either. The Rams are ranked 2nd overall in total defense at 296.4 yards per game allowed. Ronald Jones is coming off a big game but the Rams have the 5th best rush defense in the league. But the key to this matchup is how the Tampa Bay offensive line is going to keep Aaron Donald and company off Tom Brady.
Los Angeles had troubles against the East, losing to Miami and Buffalo. The Bucs have a very experienced team led by Brady and they are playing at home. If you take away the Saints from the Bucs’ schedule, they are 7-1 on the season. Look for the hometown team to pull off the win.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Other Bets To Make
Los Angeles is 5-4 ATS in nine games played this season. The Rams are 2-3 ATS in their last five games played on the road but are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the NFC South division. Tampa Bay is 5-5 ATS this season and 2-2 ATS in four home games played this year. The Bucs are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games played against the NFC, and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against the NFC West division. Head to head, the Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Bucs and have covered six out of their last seven encounters.
Rams
+4 (-105)
Buccaneers
-4 (-115)
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/23/2020
The Rams rank 2nd in total defense while the Bucs are 3rd in that category. Both have great quarterbacks but with their defenses having the ability to slow down opposing offenses, points could be harder to find here. But if there’s something that’s common in Tampa Bay’s season, it’s the fact that they have won big in their games. Only one of the Bucs’ victories have come by less than 10 points and all their wins have been by at least seven points. I like the Bucs to win by a touchdown here.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5
The total has gone under in each of the last six games played by the Rams. The under is 3-2 in L.A.’s last five games played on the road. The total has gone over in 14 out of the last 20 games played by the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has seen the total go over in seven out of their last 10 games played at home. Head to head, the total has gone under in six out of the last 10 games played between these two teams. The under is also 5-1 in their last six meetings in Tampa Bay.
Over
48 (-110)
Under
48 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 11/23/2020
While Jared Goff versus Tom Brady always has the potential to be a shootout, this game should hit the under because both the Rams and Bucs have an excellent defense. Los Angeles has held down six of their opponents this season to under 20 points. If you take away the Saints from the Tampa Bay equation, the Bucs have given up an average of 19.3 points per game this season. I think that this will settle into a competitive showdown between two of the top defenses in the league this season. I like this team to hit the under.
Prediction: Under 48
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