Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers 04/18/2022 NBA Odds and Prediction

The Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers resume their 2022 NBA first-round playoff series on Monday night at the Wells Fargo Center.

Philadelphia blew out Toronto 131-111 in Game 1 behind a massive performance from Tyrese Maxey. Maxey scored one-point shy of his career-high with 38 points, shooting 66.67% from the field and becoming one of 11 players in NBA playoff history to score 35 or more points in a playoff game at the age of 21 or younger.

With Maxey waxing hot, there was no stopping the Philadelphia offense. Meanwhile, the Raptors lost Thaddeus Young and Scottie Barnes to injury, compounding their woes. Toronto looks to even the score before the teams head North to play in Toronto.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors finished the regular season with an 8-2 record which included a 119-114 win over Philadelphia. However, the Toronto defense allowed the Sixers to shoot 51% from the floor and you just don’t do that to an offensive powerhouse led by James Harden, Joel Embiid, Tobias Haris, and Tyrese Maxey.

Pascal Siakam led the Raptors with 24 points but he was way below his rebounding average with only three boards against Philly. Siakam entered Game 1 averaging over 30 points per game against the Sixers this season. Fred Van Vleet shot 57% from the floor but finished with only 18 points, the 8th time in his last nine games where he’s scored below 20 points. If Toronto wants a chance to win, Siakam and VanVleet must do even better in Game 2.

The Raptors rank 20th in scoring at 109.4 points per game this season. Toronto is 8th in rebounding at 45.3 rebounds per game and next to last in passing at 22.1 assists per game. They also rank 7th in scoring defense at only 107.4 points per game allowed.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have won six out of their last seven games played overall but have covered just twice in their last five games. Philadelphia displayed its awesome three-point shooting by converting on 50% of their 32 three-point attempts in a blowout win over the 5th seeded Raptors.

Tyrese Maxey had a monster game but it wasn’t just him. James Harden scored 22 points and issued 14 assists in a brilliant playoff debut for the Sixers. Meanwhile, Tobias Harris also scored 26 points while also adding six rebounds and six assists. Then there was Joel Embiid who put up 19 points and 15 boards despite struggling to shoot from the field with his 5-15 shooting.

The Sixers rank 18th in scoring at just 109.9 points per game this season. They are 29th in rebounding at only 42.3 boards grabbed per contest and are 21st in passing at 23.7 assists per game. Philadelphia is ranked 8th in the NBA in scoring defense at only 107.3 points per game allowed.

Who Wins?

Toronto is 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played. The Raptors are 7-3 SU in their last 10 road playoff games as betting underdogs, and 6-2 SU in their last eight games against the Atlantic Division.

Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in their last seven games played. The Sixers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played against the Eastern Conference, 9-1 SU in their last 10 April games, and 6-4 SU in their last 10 home playoff games as betting favorites.

Toronto got blitzed in Game 1 and looks to be in for more trouble in Game 2 with Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and Thaddeus young all listed as doubtful for the Raptors. Barnes hobbled to the locker room in Game 1 after Joel Embiid stepped on his left foot. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet need to dom more than they did in Game 1 if the Raptors want to even the series.

Philadelphia got a super boost from Tyrese Maxey who scored 38 points in Game 1. The Sixers also got big games from Tobias Harris and James Harden. They also proved that they can win without Joel Embiid having a monster game, although he had a double-double.

Expect a bigger output from Embiid in Game 2, especially with the Raptors not having Young and Barnes to help the inside defense. With injuries compromising Toronto’s frontcourt, look for the Raptors to struggle to stop Embiid. The Sixers come at a premium but in this game, it’s worth the price to pay.

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

Other Bets to Make

Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 120 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight up loss, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as betting underdogs, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS loss, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on one day rest, 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Philadelphia is 3-7 AT in their last 10 games played. The Sixers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday games, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring 125 or more points in their previous game, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight up win, 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after a straight up win, 1-4 ATS in their last five games as betting favorites, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning record, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one day rest, and also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win.

Although the first game of the series was a blowout, it wasn’t reflective of who the Raptors are and what they could do on a good night. Given how they played in Game 1, I don’t think the Raptors could be any worse and if they can keep within striking distance of Philadelphia on a bad night, they can do more when playing their best basketball.

Unfortunately, Scottie Barnes could be sidelined for the Raptors and his absence or his playing compromised is such a big blow for Toronto. Still, if the Raptors can put the Game 1 loss aside and play their game on Monday, this should be a tightly fought contest. Knowing what Maxey can do, Nick Nurse has surely planned how to guard Maxey in Game 2.

Toronto’s Game 1 effort wasn’t indicative of the team’s capabilities. Look for the Raptors to bounce back on Monday. I still don’t think that they can beat the Sixers in Game 2 but the game will be much closer and the Raptors should be able to cover the 7-point spread here. I’ll take the plus points and the road underdogs.

Prediction: Raptors +7

The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Raptors. The over is 4-0 in their last four games after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 4-0 in their last four games against an opponent with a winning percentage better than .600, 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous game.

The total has gone over in each of the last five games played by the Sixers. The over is 6-0 in their last six home games, 5-0 in their last five games when allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-0 in their last four games as home favorites, 4-0 in their last first-round playoff games, 4-0 in their last four home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 11-5-1 in their last 17 games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, and 5-0 in their last five games when scoring 100 or more points in their previous game.

These teams combined for 242 points in Game 1 and there’s no reason why they can’t replicate that offensive show on Monday. The total has gone over twice in the last three meetings between these two teams. I expect a back-and-forth battle between these two teams and with a close game, there should be plenty of foul shots down the stretch that will pad the score. I think 217.5 is too low for a total featuring the Raptors and Sixers.

Prediction: Over 217.5

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