Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles (07/27)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles play Game 3 of a four-game set at Oriole Park in Camden Yards on Wednesday night.

Baltimore defeated Tampa Bay 5-1 on Monday in the opening game of this series. The Rays had 8 hits but stranded 10 runners on the way to defeat. The Orioles also won Game 2 5-3 on Tuesday after Ramon Urias hit a two-run homer in the 8th inning off relief pitcher Colin Poche.

With the loss, the Rays dropped to 52-45 on the season. They are in third place in the American League East but are 13.5 games behind the Yankees. Tampa Bay is just 5-5 in their last 10 games played and has lost their last four games. Meanwhile, the Orioles are back to one game above the .500 mark at 49-48 on the season. Baltimore is 6-4 in their last 10 games played and has won two in a row heading to Game 3.

These two teams have played 14 times this season and the series is tied at 7-7 this year.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are currently tied with the Mariners for the second wild card spot in the AL. Tampa Bay’s pitching has kept the team in the playoff race with the Rays having the 4th best team ERA in baseball at 3.41 and the 4th-best WHIP overall at 1.16. Shane McClanahan leads the Rays with 10 wins and 147 strikeouts.

Opening on top of the mound on Wednesday will be Drew Rasmussen. The 26-year-old from Spokane, WA is 6-3 with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 1.18 in a total of 16 starts this season. The right-hander has allowed 27 earned runs on 7066 hits with 66 strikeouts and 22 walks.

Rasmussen picked up the win in his last start as he allowed only one earned run on seven hits in 5.0 innings pitched during a 7-3 win over the Royals. The Rays are 3-4 in his last seven starts.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are just 24th in team batting average at .235, 24th in on-base percentage at .303, and 17th in slugging at .387. Despite those mediocre numbers, Baltimore has managed to get to the .500 mark and at 49-48 right now, they are just three games off the wild card pace. Anthony Santander leads the team with 16 homers and 50 RBIs. Ryan Mountcastle is second with 14 home runs and 48 RBIs on the season.

Right-hander Tyler Wells will start for the Orioles on Wednesday. The 27-year-old from Yucaipa, CA has a record of 7-6 with an ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.10. Wells has pitched in a total of 90.1 innings and has allowed 37 earned runs on 76 hits with 63 strikeouts and 23 walks.

Wells got the loss in his last start as he allowed 5 earned runs on 5 hits in 5.0 innings pitched during a 7-6 loss to the Yankees. Baltimore is 7-2 in his last nine starts but is 0-2 in his most recent two.

Rays vs Orioles Betting Prediction

The Rays are 37-14 in their last 51 games played against the Orioles. Tampa Bay is also 1-4 in their last five meetings in Baltimore.

The Rays are:

1-4 in their last five games played.
1-6 in their last 7 road games.
5-11 in their last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
5-12 in their last 17 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.
1-6 in their last 7 games versus a left-handed starter.
0-6 in their last 6 road games against a left-handed starter.
0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
8-2 in their last 10 opposite the American League East.
4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
11-3 in their last 14 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
10-3 in their last 13 Wednesday games.
6-2 in their last 8 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
6-2 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
5-2 in their last 7 Game 3s of a series.
41-19 in their last 60 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.

The Orioles are:

13-4 in their last 17 games played overall.
10-2 in their last 12 home games.
5-0 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
12-2 in their last 14 games on grass.
6-1 in their last 7 home games opposite a right-handed starter.
7-2 in their last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
6-2 in their last 8 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
140-294 in their last 434 games versus a right-handed starter.
34-77 in their last 111 versus the American League East.
70-162 in their last 232 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
52-124 in their last 176 home games versus a team with a winning record.
108-262 in their last 370 against a team with a winning record.
19-48 in their last 67 Wednesday games.
1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
0-9 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

What are the Moneyline Odds?

Rays

-114

Orioles

+104

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/25/2022

Drew Rasmussen has posted four consecutive strong starts with the Rays winning in three of those four games. In a total of 21 ⅔ innings pitched during that span, Rasmussen allowed only five earned runs on 20 hits. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s Tyler Wells has been hit hard in each of his last three starts as he allowed a total of 11 earned runs on 17 hits in 14 ⅔ innings pitched. One of those games was a loss against the Rays where he allowed 3 runs in 5 ⅓ innings.

There’s no question that Rasmussen is having the better season between these two starters but no matter how much better he is throwing right now than Wells, it won’t matter if the offense cannot give him the run support needed to win the game. Tampa Bay’s offense has sputtered during their current four-game losing streak, scoring just a total of nine runs.

Wells has been hit hard as of late but when pitching at home, he has been a very reliable option with an ERA of 3.58 while allowing opponents to bat at .221 against him. I think the disrespect for the Orioles continues here. They are one game above the .500 mark right now while the Rays are just three games ahead of them in the team standings.

I won’t blame you if you take the Rays here but I will go with the Orioles and the value on their plus money odds.

Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Rays vs Orioles Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played between these two teams. The over is also 11-9 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams played in Baltimore.

Tampa Bay Rays over/under trends:

Under is 6-2 in the Rays’ last 8 road games.
Under is 4-1 in the Rays’ last 5 games against a left-handed starter.
Under is 4-1 in the Rays’ last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 10-3 in the Rays’ last 13 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Under is 6-2 in the Rays’ last 8 games played on grass.
Under is 5-1 in the Rays’ last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
Over is 5-0 in the Rays’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 5-0 in the Rays’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Over is 5-2 in the Rays’ last 7 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 12-5-1 in the Rays’ last 18 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 7-2 in the Rays’ last nine games against the American League.
Over is 11-4 in the Rays’ last 15 games against the American League East Division.

Baltimore Orioles over/under trends:

Over is 5-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 8 overall.
Over is 5-2 in the Orioles’ last 7 against a team with a winning record.
Over is 21-19-1 in the Orioles’ last 41 home games against the American League
Over is 11-4-1 in the Orioles’ last 16 vs. American League East.
Over is 4-1 in the Orioles’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1-1 in the Orioles’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Over is 8-3 in the Orioles’ last 11 games as betting favorites.
Under is 4-1 in the Orioles’ last 5 Game 3s of a series.
Under is 12-3-1 in the Orioles’ last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 17-7-2 in the Orioles’ last 26 on grass.
Under is 16-7-3 in the Orioles’ last 26 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

What are the Total Odds?

Over

8.5 (-110)

Under

8.5 (-110)

Odds from BetOnline as of 07/25/2022

These two teams have combined to score a total of 8.2 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and have produced a total of 8 and 6 total runs in their last two games played against each other.

Rasmussen is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.19 in his career against the Orioles while Wells is a decent pitcher at home with an ERA of 3.57.

The Tampa Bay Rays have scored only a total of six runs in their last three games played. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in each of their last four outings and have lost six out of their last seven games when scoring by three or fewer runs. Baltimore has scored 10 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in four out of their last five games. The Orioles have won three in a row when scoring four or more runs.

With how the Tampa Bay offense has struggled as of late, I will have to take the under in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles 07/27/2022 Odds and Prediction

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Rays vs Orioles Betting Prediction

Rays vs Orioles Over/Under Prediction

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