Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels 07/05/2021 MLB Odds, Preview, and Pick

The Boston Red Sox will head to Los Angeles looking for their fourth consecutive series win. Boston eked out a 2-1 series win over the Oakland Athletics the last time out while the Angels are coming off a 3-0 sweep of the Baltimore Orioles prior to this matchup.

The Red Sox are currently at 53-32 and have the lead in the AL East, 4.5 games up on the Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, the Angels are just 4th in the AL West with a 42-41 record.

Boston leads their season series 2-1 but Los Angeles won their last meeting 6-5.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox won for the third straight series on Sunday, shutting down the Oakland Athletics 1-0 on Sunday to take their three-game set 2-1. Nick Pivetta struck out 10 batters while pitching seven scoreless innings for the Red Sox who have lost just once in their last 10 outings.

Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox with 70 RBI and 20 homers on the season. Xander Bogaerts is their best hitter at .326. Boston’s pitching ranks 15th overall with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.39 which is 26th overall. Opponents are hitting .259 against them this season.

Martin Perez will open on top of the mound for the Red Sox. The 30-year old left-hander has won two out of his last three starts but will be facing a solid offensive team in the Angels. Perez has a record of 6-4 on the season with an ERA of 4.04 and a WHIP of 1.43. Perez has struck out 62 while walking 26 and allowing nine homers this year.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have won six out of their last seven games with one postponed game in between. Los Angeles defeated the Yankees 2-1 last week before sweeping the Baltimore Orioles in their most recent three-game set. Despite their current run, the Angles are just 42-41 on the season.

David Fletcher leads the Angles with a .285 batting average. Shohei Ohtani has been spectacular with a team-high RBI and an MLB best 31 home runs on the season. The Angels’ pitching staff ranks 27th with an ERA of 5.01 and WHIP of 1.41 and opponents have a .249 batting average against them.

Jose Suarez will start for the Angles in this series opener. The 23-year old left-hander has a record of 3-1 in 17 starts this season with an ERA of 1.98 and a WHIP of 1.10. Suarez has not allowed more than one earned run in a game this season. But remember that he’s not faced the Red Sox yet, so this will be a huge step-up in the quality of opposition for him.

Who Wins?

Boston is 9-1 in their last 10 games played. The Red Sox are 10-5 in their last 15 games played on the road, 4-0 in their last four Game 1s of a series, 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning record, 5-1 in their last six games versus a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15, and 4-1 in their last five games against a right-handed starter.

The Angels are 4-0 in their last four games overall. Los Angeles is 4-0 in their last four games against the AL East, 7-1 in their last eight games against a left-handed starter, 6-1 in their last seven games when their opponents score 2 or fewer runs in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last five games played after a victory.

Head to head, Boston is 12-4 in their last 16 games played against the Los Angeles Angles. The Red Sox are also 5-1 in their last five home games against the Angels.

The Red Sox have scored at least six runs in six out of their last seven games played and they should have another good scoring outing here. Suarez has looked good off the bullpen but has struggled as a starter with the Angels losing in each of his last nine starts.

Boston has lost just once in its last four head-to-head meetings. They have more firepower than the Angels with Mike Trout still recovering. Give me the Red Sox to win on the road.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Other Bets to Make

The over is 4-0 in Boston’s last four games when the total is set between 9-10.5. The over is also 3-0-1 in their last four games against a left-handed starter, 3-1-1 in their last five games after allowing two or fewer runs in their previous game, and 5-2-2 in their last nine games overall against a left-handed starter.

The total has gone over in 20 out of the last 26 games played by the Angels. The over is 10-3 in the Angels’ last 13 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game, 12-4 in their last 16 games after a win, 4-1 in their last five games against the American League East, and 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning percentage higher than .600.

The total has gone over in five out of their last six head-to-head meetings in Los Angeles.

The Angels rank second overall with an average of 1.64 home runs per game at home. They have the leading home run hitter in the majors in Ohtani. However, they will meet their match against a Red Sox offense that is averaging 5.17 runs per game this season and six runs per game in their last three games against the Angels.

Los Angeles’ pitching staff has also allowed five runs per game at home, Boston should be able to score more than enough runs to help the team get the score over the total of 10 runs.

Prediction: Over 10

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