The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants open a three-game series on Friday night at Oracle Park with the first pitch to be thrown at 10:15 PM ET.
Cincinnati is at the bottom of the National League Central Division with their 23-46 record. They are a far 15.5 games behind the leaders St. Louis Cardinals and are 3-7 in their last 10 games played. They head to Oracle Park with a seven-game losing streak. The Reds have been swept in their last two series, including a 10-5 loss to the Dodgers in their last game played.
San Francisco is third in the National League West Division with their 38-31 record. The Giants are just 5.5 games behind their division leaders Los Angeles Dodgers. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games played and have lost back-to-back games heading to this series. The Giants lost to the Braves 1-3 in their last series, including a 6-7 defeat on Thursday.
The Reds have allowed the third-most runs in the majors this season and have the worst team ERA at 5.31. Cincinnati hasn’t done any better at the plate as they have blasted only a total of 65 home runs entering this series. Their struggles on both ends of the field have landed them at the bottom of their division.
Graham Ashcraft will start for the Reds in Game 1. The 24-year-old right-hander from Gurley, AL is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP of 1.17 in six total starts. In a total of 33.1 innings pitched this season, Ashcraft has allowed 13 runs on 32 hits with 19 strikeouts and seven walks.
In his last start, Ashcraft gave up six runs on eight hits with two walks and four strikeouts in 5.0 innings pitched. He picked up the loss as the Brewers beat the Reds 7-3. Cincinnati is 5-1 in his last six starts.
The Giants aren’t a team that has displayed superior statistics. However, they always find ways to get the job done. The San Francisco pitching staff has allowed the third-fewest runs in the league this season and has a 3.94 Team ERA. San Francisco has given up the third-fewest walks and they play in a run-friendly ballpark that has helped them win games this year.
Alex Cobb will open on top of the mound for the Giants. The 34-year-old right-hander from Boston, MA is 3-2 with an ERA of 5.62 and a WHIP of 1.46 in 9 starts this season. Cobb has given up 6 earned runs on 48 hits with 49 strikeouts and 13 walks in a total of 41.2 innings pitched.
In his last start, Cobb did not factor in the decision as he allowed two earned runs on four hits with two home runs allowed during a 4-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Giants are just 3-2 in his last five starts.
The Reds are 2-7 in their last nine games against the Giants. Cincinnati is also 1-2 in their last three games played in San Francisco.
The Red are:
21-44 in their last 65 games played overall.
16-35 in their last 51 road games.
17-35 in their last 52 games versus a right-handed starter.
20-42 in their last 62 games on grass.
17-37 in their last 54 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
8-20 in their last 28 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
10-26 in their last 36 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
8-21 in their last 29 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
14-37 in their last 51 games following a loss.
15-40 in their last 55 games versus National League West.
12-41 in their last 53 games against a team with a winning record.
1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
2-9 in their last 11 Friday games.
5-23 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
0-6 in their last 6 after games allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
0-6 in their last 6 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
The Giants are:
1-4 in their last 5 games played overall.
5-1 in their last 6 home games.
18-5 in their last 23 home games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
13-4 in their last 17 Friday games.
6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss.
4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
7-3 in their last 10 home games versus a right-handed starter.
70-31 in their last 101 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
37-17 in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
69-32 in their last 101 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
48-23 in their last 71 Game1s of a series.
37-18 in their last 55 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
16-12 in their last 28 home games against the National League.
32-29 in their last 61 games overall against the National League
2-5 in their last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
7-19 in their last 26 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
1-4 in their last 5 games played on grass.
The Giants were cautious with Alex Cobb in his last outing as he was coming off a two-week absence due to a neck strain. Cobb pitched only four innings and gave up two runs in a no-decision versus the Pirates last weekend. With Cincinnati being one of the worst teams in baseball, this should be a game where the Giants send him on an extended outing and he should have little to no problem getting the job done.
Both teams are struggling heading to this contest. But the Giants have lost just two in a row and are 5-5 in their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Reds are winless in their last seven games and are 3-7 in their last 10 assignments.
Cincinnati has a team ERA of 5.38 and is giving up plenty of runs on a night-to-night basis and have given up 39 runs in their last five games played. Starter Graham Ashcraft has given up 10 runs in his last 9.2 innings pitched.
I don’t really like how the Giants are playing this season but the Reds have been much worse.
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The total has gone under in six out of the last 10 meetings between the Reds and Giants. The under is also 2-1 in their last three meetings in San Francisco.
Cincinnati Reds over/under trends:
Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 games played overall.
Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in the Reds’ last 6 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 versus a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
Over is 3-1-1 in the Reds’ last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in the Reds’ last 5 road games.
Over is 5-2-1 in the Reds’ last 8 games against a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-0 in the Reds’ last 4 versus the National League West Division.
Under is 6-1-1 in the Reds’ last 8 Game 1s of a series.
Under is 4-1 in the Reds’ last 5 Friday games.
Under is 7-3 in the Reds’ last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 51-25-7 in the Reds’ last 83 road games with the total set at 8.0-9.5.
The San Francisco Giants are:
Under is 11-4-2 in the Giants’ last 17 games played overall.
Under is 6-1-2 in the Giants’ last 9 home games.
Under is 11-4-2 in the Giants’ last 17 games played on grass.
Under is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-2 in the Giants’ last 8 Game 1s of a series.
Under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 4-1-2 in the Giants’ last 7 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
Under is 4-1-1 in the Giants’ last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 8-4 in the Giants’ last 12 games against the National League.
Under is 4-2 in the GIants’ last six games against the National League Central Division.
Over is 5-1-1 in the Giants” last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over
8 (-110)
Under
8 (-110)
Odds from BetOnline as of 06/24/2022
These two teams have combined to score an average of 8.2 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings but only 7.0 runs per game in their most recent three outings. Ashcraft is inexperienced and the Reds have allowed six or more runs in seven out of their last 10 games played including 7+ in five out of their last seven.
However, the Giants are scoring just 4.88 runs per game but have not been consistent on a game-to-game basis and have scored just 3 or fewer runs five times in their last 8 games played. Cobb has allowed four runs in his last 10 innings pitched so it’s not that he’s been throwing too badly in his recent starts. Plus, the Reds aren’t the best offensive team this season. This one should fall short of the total.
Prediction: Under 8
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