The Kansas City Royals take on the Houston Astros in Game 2 of their current set. Kansas City needed late heroics from Yordan Alvarez to stun the Royals 7-6 on Monday night. Houston rallied to score three runs in the 8th before Alvarez hit the walk-off blast.
Houston is 52-27 on the season and has the second-best record in baseball. They have a massive 13.5-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West team standings. Houston has won seven straight games heading to this contest and will be looking to extend the winning run against the lowly Royals.
Kansas City is at the bottom of the AL Central team standings with their 29-49 record. The Royals have lost seven out of their last 11 games played and they blew a lead against the Astros in Game 1 of the series.
The Royals had the Astros where they wanted through the first seven and a half innings of the series opener on Monday. However, the KC relievers were unable to get the job done as the Astros exploded in the final two innings. Now they will look to get one back against a surging Houston team.
Veteran Zach Greinke gets the nod to open on top of the hill for the Royals. Greinke is 2-4 with an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.23 in 12 starts. In 63.2 innings pitched, he has surrendered 31 earned runs on 67 hits with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks.
Greinke allowed only one earned run on four hits in six innings while picking up the win against the Texas Rangers the last time out. The Royals are 5-2 in his last seven appearances.
Houston snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Game 1 of this series. They rallied from an 8th-inning deficit to win the game on Yordan Alvarez’s walk-off shot. Houston has the second-best record in baseball behind the Yankees and if they can keep up their pace, they should be able to play in a sixth straight ALCS.
The Astros look to keep winning on Tuesday with Luis Garcia on top of the hill. The 25-year-old right-hander is 6-5 with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.06 on the season. Garcia has pitched in a total of 14 games this season and has given up 30 earned runs on 60 hits with 13 home runs, 80 strikeouts, and 21 walks.
Garcia picked up the win in his last start as he gave up only one earned run on three hits in 5.1 innings pitched. Houston is 4-2 in his last six starts with wins in each of his last three outings.
The Royals are 1-5 in their last six games played against the Astros. Kansas City is also 1-4 in their last five meetings in Houston.
The Royals are:
3-6 in their last nine games played.
7-3 in their last 10 road games.
75-153 in their last 228 road games versus a right-handed starter.
102-209 in their last 311 games against a team with a winning record.
6-13 in their last 19 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
16-35 in their last 51 games against a right-handed starter.
25-41 in their last 66 games versus the American League.
12-17 in their last 29 road games against the American League.
37-83 in their last 120 games played against the American League West Division.
8-20 in their last 28 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
7-19 in their last 26 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
4-11 in their last 15 Game 2s of a series.
5-16 in their last 21 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
6-22 in their last 28 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
6-22 in their last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
1-5 in their last 6 Tuesday games.
1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Astros are:
Astros are 41-16 in their last 57 overall.
Astros are 42-19 in their last 61 home games.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after games allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 Game 2 of a series.
Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Astros are 44-16 in their last 60 games on grass.
Astros are 27-10 in their last 37 games opposite a team with a winning percentage below .400.
37-14 in their last 51 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
37-15 in their last 52 home games versus a right-handed starter.
86-38 in their last 124 against the American League Central Division.
93-41 in their last 134 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
36-16 in their last 52 Tuesday games.
62-30 in their last 92 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
35-17 in their last 52 games versus a right-handed starter.
53-26 in their last 79 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
I expect the Astros’ Top 5 team OPS to help them jump the gun on Greinke early on with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker leading the charge. Meanwhile, Luis Garcia should have no major issues dealing with a Kansas City team that has been lackluster on offense.
The Royals are 18th in team batting average, 22nd in OBP, 27th in slugging, and 27th in total runs scored this season. Without much to offer on offense, the Royals will be at the mercy of Garcia who threw for seven innings and allowed only two earned runs on four hits in his lone start against KC this season.
Houston is on a seven-game winning streak and I don’t see them letting up against a very winnable game against the Royals. Give me the home team to pick up the win here.
Prediction: Houston Astros
The total has gone over in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The over is also 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Houston.
Kansas City Royals over/under trends:
Over is 5-4-1 in the Royals’ last 10 games played.
Over is 5-1 in the Royals’ last 6 vs. American League West.
Over is 4-1 in the Royals’ last 5 games following a loss.
Over is 12-4 in the Royals’ last 16 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 10-4 in the Royals’ last 14 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 15-7 in the Royals’ last 22 against a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-3 in the Royals’ last 12 road games.
Under is 6-2 in the Royals’ last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 7-3 in the Royals’ last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in the Royals’ last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in the Royals’ last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 8-3 in the Royals’ last 11 games played in July.
Under is 15-13-1 in their last 29 road games against the National League.
Houston Astros over/under trends:
Over is 7-2-2 in the Astros’ last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in the Astros’ last 5 vs. American League Central.
Over is 8-1 in the Astros’ last nine July games.
Over is 4-2 in the Astros’ last six games as betting favorites.
Under is 43-21-3 in the Astros’ last 67 overall.
Under is 41-20-3 in the Astros’ last 64 on grass.
Under is 14-6-2 in the Astros’ last 22 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Under is 9-4 in the Astros’ last 13 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
Under is 34-16-2 in the Astros’ last 52 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 31-15-5 in the Astros’ last 51 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 37-18-2 in the Astros’ last 57 games against a right-handed starter.
Under is 24-5-1 in the Astros’ last 30 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 25-8-1 in the Astros’ last 34 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 15-5-1 in the Astros’ last 21 Game 2s of a series.
Over
8 (-120)
Under
8 (+100)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/05/2022
The Astros are a prolific offensive team that ranked 5th in OPS, 5th in slugging, and 3rd in home runs among others. Their bats have been clicking as of late, as they are scoring an average of seven runs per game in their last four games played. They should have another excellent offensive outing against the veteran Greinke who is no longer the pitcher he once was.
Meanwhile, the Royals aren’t as explosive on offense but Luis Garcia has already given up 13 bombs this season and has an ERA of over four runs at home as compared to just over three runs when on the road. Although he should do enough to hold a lead when he leaves, the Royals should be able to score enough runs to help Houston push the total over 8 runs. KC has seen the total go over eight runs in six out of their last nine games played.
These teams have combined to score 8.4 runs per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 10.0 runs per game in their last three. This one should be no different.
Prediction: Over 8
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