New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12/05/2022 NFL Odds and Prediction

The New Orleans Saints head to the Raymond James Stadium on Monday night to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in prime time.

The Saints have been a nemesis for Tom Brady since coming over to Tampa Bay. Brady lost four in a row to the Saints before finally getting a win against them in Week 2. Overall, New Orleans has won seven out of their last 10 games played against Tampa Bay and they need another one to keep their slim playoff hope alive.

New Orleans has lost three out of their last four and is coming off their first shutout loss since 2001 against San Francisco last week. Meanwhile, the Bucs saw their two-game winning streak end at the hands of the Cleveland Browns last weekend.

New Orleans Saints

Despite their recent struggles and despite being at the bottom of the division standings, the Saints are just two games behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the underachieving NFC South Division. Having said that, however, this game should be a must-win for the Sants with games running out fast.

Andy Dalton threw for 204 yards last week but the Saints rushing attack was held to just 63 yards. New Orleans ranks just 22nd in rushing and 11th in passing. They are dead last with a -1.2 turnover differential which has been one of their biggest struggles this season. New Orleans’ main concern is the health status of TE Juwan Johnson and CBs Marhson Lattimore and Bradley Robey.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This season has been a streaky one for the Bucs. They won their first two games of the season then lost two in a row. After a three-game skid, they won two straight before losing to the Browns last weekend. Cleveland rallied to tie the game and send it to overtime where Nick Chubb scored the winning TD run with 19 ticks left in the OT period.

Tom Brady threw two TDs in the game but despite multiple possessions in OT, he wasn’t able to get them any score. Because of injuries, the Bucs rank just 27th in offense and they are also just 25th in red zone conversion. They are also last in the league in rushing offense but are 5th in passing. OT Tristan Wirfs is out with an injury while Mike Edwards, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Vita Vea are questionable.

Saints vs Buccaneers SU Prediction

The Saints are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played against the Buccaneers. New Orleans is also 4-0 ATS in their previous four games played in Tampa Bay.

New Orleans Saints SU trends:

• The Saints are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played.
• The Saints are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Saints are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played against the NFC South Division.
• The Saints are 3-5 SU in their last 8 games played against the NFC Conference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers SU trends:

• The Buccaneers are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games played.
• The Buccaneers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played at home.
• The Buccaneers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 December games.
• The Buccaneers are 5-2 SU in their last7 games played against the NFC Conference.

The Saints suffered their first shutout loss since 2001 last week. Running back Alvin Kamara fumbled the ball twice while quarterback Andy Dalton was the team’s leading rusher with 21 rushing yards on 4 carries. If the Saints want to win this game, they cannot allow those to happen again.

Kamara, running back Mark Ingram, and tight end Taysom Hill combined to rush for 36 yards on 17 carries which were one of the main reasons they got blanked the last time out. New Orleans will have a good chance of getting their rushing attack going against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled against the run. The Bucs allowed 189 rushing yards on 34 carries to the Browns last week and they are giving up 123.2 rushing yards per game this season.

At this stage of the season last year, the Bucs looked like they were coasting as one of the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFC when the Saints came to town and beat them 9-0 in Week 15. After that win, New Orleans had beaten Tampa Bay in seven consecutive meetings, including four with Tom Brady as their quarterback.

Brady ended the skid with a 20-10 win in Week 2 this season but that game was very competitive. It also saw Mike Evans get ejected and suspended for one game for fighting with New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore. That wasn’t the first time that the two got at it in their careers. Safe to say, there’s bad blood between the two that could play out in this game.

New Orleans should enter this game with confidence after holding the Bucs to below 20 points thrice in their last four meetings, including 3 points or less in two. The Saints only allowed one TD in last week’s loss to the 49ers so if the defense does well, here again, the offense will have to compliment them by putting up points on the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay scored 19 or more points in four out of their five wins this season and are just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS when scoring less. The offense has really struggled this season and despite Brady moving the ball fairly well, they have not been effective in scoring points. The Saints allowed 20 or more points in four road games before playing San Francisco and lost thrice in those four games.

I think Brady and the Tampa Bay offense does enough to pick up their second straight win over the Saints this season.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Saints vs Buccaneers ATS Prediction

The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played against the Buccaneers. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games played between these two teams. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in Tampa Bay.

New Orleans Saints ATS trends:

• The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a losing home record
• The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games
• The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS trends:

• The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 13.
• The Buccaneers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
• The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Buccaneers are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
• The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Buccaneers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The Buccaneers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Buccaneers are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
• The Buccaneers are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Despite their current offensive woes, the Buccaneers do not turn the ball over as much as the Saints do. The Saints head to this game looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive but the Bucs also enter this contest eyeing to secure the division title.

The injury to Wirfs is a big blow to the Bucs as far as protecting Tom Brady is concerned. However, the return of Leonard Fournette to health will give Brady another potent weapon and keep the defense on their toes.

Meanwhile, the Saints will go with Andy Dalton and he hasn’t really done well to prove his worth this season. Dalton has been forced into committing turnovers because of a struggling running game.

Both teams aren’t playing well as of late but the Bucs have more talent and better weapons. They also have a bigger motivation to win the game.

Prediction: Buccaneers -3.5

Saints vs Buccaneers Over/Under Odds

The total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The under is 11-3 in the last 14 games played in Tampa Bay.

New Orleans Saints over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Saints’ last 4 games in Week 13.
• The under is 4-0 in the Saints’ last 4 games in December.
• The under is 4-1 in the Saints’ last 5 games overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the Saints’ last 5 against the NFC.
• The under is 11-3 in the Saints’ last 14 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 8-3 in the Saints’ last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 5-2 in the Saints’ last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 10-4 in the Saints’ last 14 versus the NFC South.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over/under trends:

• The under is 6-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 7 games overall
• The under is 4-0 in the Buccaneers’ last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.
• The under is 6-1-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 8 games in Week 13.
• The under is 6-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 7 versus the NFC South.
• The under is 10-2 in the Buccaneers’ last 12 games following a straight-up loss.
• The under is 5-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 6 games on grass.
• The under is 15-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 18 against the NFC.
• The under is 13-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 16 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 5 games in December.
• The over is 7-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.

The Saints are coming off their first shutout loss in over two decades and both teams currently reside near the bottom of the scoring rankings. However, I’d like to take a stab at the OVER on Monday night.

Tampa Bay’s receiving corps continues to grow in strength with Julio Jones getting healthier and Chris Godwin playing near his form. Cade Otton has also emerged as a legitimate threat so Brady has plenty of weapons on Monday. The Orleans cornerback group is also banged up so I expect the Bucs to let Brady throw the ball more.

Both teams’ defenses are banged up as Tampa may not have their best DT in Vita Vea. I’m not expecting a shootout but the oddsmakers may have set the total too low. I won’t blame you if you go with the under given the history between these two teams but I like the over.

Prediction: Over 40.5

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