New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles 01/01/2023 NFL Odds and Prediction

The New Orleans Saints look to keep their playoff hopes alive when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

The Saints’ only path to the postseason is to win their division and to do that, they need to win out and hope that the Bucs lose their last two games. New Orleans defeated Atlanta two weeks ago and then beat Cleveland last week to put up their first winning streak of the season.

Meanwhile, the Eagles suffered only their second loss of the season last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia has another chance to clinch their division and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs if they beat the Saints on Sunday. However, they may have to do it without quarterback Jalen Hurts again. Hurts missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury and he has yet to return to practice as of Wednesday.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints are not yet out of the playoff hunt. However, they need to beat the Eagles this weekend, defeat the Carolina Panthers next week and hope that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose their last two games so that New Orleans wins the NFC South. Otherwise, it’s pretty much over for them this season.

New Orleans heads to this game having won two in a row, the first time this season that they have won consecutive games. Their defense has been the key as the Saints are allowing just 15.6 points per game in their last 8 games after giving up 28.6 points in their first seven games. They have also run the ball better, amassing 134 against Atlanta two weeks ago and 152 yards on 39 carries last week.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles missed out on an opportunity to clinch the NFC East and top spot in the entire NFC playoffs last week when they lost 40-34 to the Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia played without QB Jalen Hurts who was out with a shoulder injury. In his place, veteran Gardner Minshew started for the Eagles and played well. However, Four turnovers including two INTs and a lost fumble by Minshew did the Eagles.

Hurts did not practice on Wednesday and it’s more unlikely now that he will play on Sunday. The Eagle suffered another big blow when Pro Bowl tackle Lane Johnson suffered an abdominal injury against the Cowboys although early reports are saying that he will not undergo surgery with the hopes of playing in the postseason.

Saints vs Eagles SU Prediction

The Saints are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Eagles. New Orleans is 1-3 SU in their last 4 games played in Philadelphia.

New Orleans Saints SU trends:

• The Saints are 4-6 U in their last 10 games played.
• The Saints are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played at home.
• The Saints are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against the NFC.
• The Saints are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played against the NFC East division.

Philadelphia Eagles SU trends:

• The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Eagles are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played at home.
• The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the NFC.
• The Eagles are 1-5 SU in their last 6 January games.

New Orleans came back from a 10-3 first-half deficit to beat the Cleveland Browns 17-10 as a 3-point road underdog last week. Andy Dalton completed only 8 of 15 passes for 92 yards with no TDs and 1 INT in the win. Alvin Kamara scored a TD while rushing for 76 yards while Taysom Hill added 59 yards on the ground on 9 attempts.

The win followed up the Saints’ 21-18 victory over the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago and marked the first time this season that they have won two in a row. New Orleans was 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS prior to their last two games. New Orleans has covered its last two games as underdogs after going 1-5 ATS under such a role.

Philly suffered only their second loss to the season on the road last week against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 40-34 as four-point underdogs. Without Jalen Hurts, the Eagles went to veteran Gardner Minshew who threw for 355 yards with two TD passes while rushing for a touchdown. However, Minshew also threw two INTS and lost one fumble.

Hurts is questionable to play on Sunday against the Saints. If he can’t go, then Minshew will get the start again. The Eagles can clinch the top seed in the NFC with a win on Sunday. If not they get another crack next week when they play the Giants.

New Orleans cannot get themselves forced to pass the football against the best pass defense in the league. If this happens, they will fall down big early and it will be difficult to win from behind. The best path to victory is to get Kamara and Hill going on the ground and play defense.

The Eagle lost without Hurts last week. However, it was against a top team the Cowboys. Nothing but respect for the Saints but Dalton won’t be as big a problem as Dak Prescott was. At home against a weaker opponent, I expect Minshew to get the job done this week.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

Saints vs Eagles ATS Prediction

The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Eagles. The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

New Orleans Saints ATS trends:

• The Saints are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 road games.
• The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• The Saints are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 17.
• The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• The Saints are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
• The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win
• The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
• The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.

Philadelphia Eagles ATS trends:

• The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 17.
• The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
• The Eagles are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.

The Saints need to win outright to keep their postseason hopes alive. That should give them the motivation to give it their all here. However, with Andy Dalton playing behind center, there isn’t much that New Orleans can do here. Their best chance of winning will be to run the football and play good defense.

The Eagles lost last week to a contender in Dallas and did so by just 6 points despite playing with their backup QB. This week, the Eagles are up against a less formidable opponent and their top-rated pass defense is even going to make matters worse for Dalton here.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles -5.5

Saints vs Eagles Over/Under Prediction

The over is 5-1 in their last 6 games played in Philadelphia.

New Orleans Saints over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Saints’ last 4 games overall.
• The under is 4-0 in the Saints’ last 4 road games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Saints’ last 4 games on grass.
• The under is 7-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games in January.
• The under is 6-1 in the Saints’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Saints’ last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Saints’ last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-1 in the Saints’ last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 12-3 in the Saints’ last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Saints’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The under is 6-2 in the Saints’ last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Philadelphia Eagles over/under trends:

• The over is 8-2 in the Eagles’ last 10 games overall.
• The over is 11-1 in the Eagles’ last 12 home games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Eagles’ last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Eagles’ last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 games on grass.
• The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 games played versus the NFC.
• The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 7-3 in the Eagles’ last 10 games against a team with a losing record.
• The over is 43-19 in the Eagles’ last 62 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 58-27 in the Eagles’ last 85 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The under is 6-1 in the Eagles’ last 7 games in January.
• The under is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 games in Week 17.

The Saints are scoring just a shade over 20 points per game this season. Andy Dalton will be facing the no. 1 ranked pass defense in the NFL this weekend and it could end up bad for the Saints.

As stated twice already above, the best avenue for New Orleans here will be to slow down the game, run the football and play good defense. Both will eat up plenty of precious time and won’t help the Eagles get the score over the total.

The Eagles will be without their starter again on Sunday. Minshew led them to 34 points the last time out but I’m not sure if he can produce a similar output this week.

The under is 7-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played. The total has not hit 43.5 points in any of their last four games played. The Eagles are a high-scoring team but without a dancing partner and likely without Jalen Hurts this one is falling short of the total

Prediction: Under 43.5

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