Saul Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs Updated Odds and Prediction

Cinco de Mayo is less than a month away and that means that the highly anticipated showdown between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs.

Alvarez and Jacobs are set to unify their middleweight belts on May 4, 2019 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Mexican is the Lineal, Ring, WBC and WBA middleweight champion while the American is the IBF middleweight titleholder. The winner of this fight will be one belt away from becoming undisputed middleweight champion.

We already wrote our preview and prediction for this champion vs champion fight last month. But with the fight drawing near, we revisit the odds and take a look at the fight again to see if anything, if at all, changes when it comes to betting. Get our boxing betting tips here.

The Latest Odds

Alvarez has only been an underdog three times in his entire professional boxing career. These were during his two fights with Gennady Golovkin (+150 and +155)  and during his only loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. (+235). In his most recent bout, Alvarez closed at a massive -2500 against the overmatched Rocky Fielding. As for Danny Jacobs, this is the first time he’s an underdog since he closed as a +500 against Gennady Golovkin in 2017.

For this fight, Alvarez opened at -275 while Jacobs was a +200 when the betting lines were first revealed.  When we wrote out Canelo vs Jacobs preview, the numbers had changed to -334 for Canelo and +279 for Danny Jacobs. Four weeks later, the odds haven’t moved a lot. Check the odds below from two of the top betting sites for boxing:

As always, there is a slight difference in the odds posted by the different sites so it may be best to check both or check more before making your bets. Sometimes the difference does count. For this fight, both sites have Jacobs at +285 so if you’re betting on the Miracle man, it doesn’t matter. However, if you’re putting your money on the line for Canelo, then it’s a material $35 difference. In this particular fight, with these odds, I’ll lay $340 on Canelo.

An Aggressive Canelo

The odds may have changed but if you ask me, my pick hasn’t. Danny Jacobs is the bigger man with the bigger punch here. But Saul Alvarez is the more skilled fighter who also has the better ring resume between the two. Before the Golovkin rematch, you would think that Jacobs would plan to be the aggressor and try to bully Canelo around the ring. That’s because Alvarez has always been known more as a terrific counter-puncher rather than aggressive offensive fighter. But after he drew with Golovkin, Alvarez promised to brawl with the Kazakh god of war and he did what he said he would do. But not only were we surprised that he withstood Golovkin in a brawl, we were shocked that it was even Canelo who got the better of Triple G during those fire fights. In fact, Canelo’s aggression during the Golovkin fight most probably helped him  sway the judges to his favor.

The attacking Canelo would worry Jacobs the way an attacking Golovkin did. When Jacobs fought Triple G, he was forced to back pedal because Golovkin was always moving forward. That limited his offense to some point and prevented him from setting up his big punches. I think the same thing would happen against Alvarez. Instead of setting up his power punches, Jacobs would be busy trying to defend against an aggressive Canelo.

A Mental Edge

In the last month or so, Jacobs looks like he’s worried about the judges not giving him a fair shake if the fight goes the distance. That’s not a good sign for him because we are still a month away from the fight and yet he is already thinking about how the judges could score the fight. I don’t blame him though.

We saw what happened to Triple G in the first Canelo fight and perhaps in the second as well. We saw how the judges gave Andre Ward the nod over Kovalev in their first bout. Those things happen. And Jacobs have every right to be worried because he is up against a fighter who is arguably the biggest attraction in the sport today. But worrying about the judges could take Jacob’s off his concentration. He says not but I’m not too sure. Because of this , I also give the mental edge to Canelo.

Jacobs Has Size Advantage

But this doesn’t mean that this will be a one-sided fight because Jacobs has the clear advantage in size. The Miracle Man is two inches taller and three inches longer than Alvarez. That means that if he pops his jab consistently, he can both score points and set up his big punches. Jacobs is also perceived to be the the one with heavier hands but he needs to land them in order to make a difference. The question here is if he can penetrate Canelo’s defense.

Jacobs is an excellent boxer himself and he can choose to box 12 rounds and win by decision. We’ve seen him do that in previous fights. However, I’m not sure if he can outbox a faster, quicker and more mobile opponent in Canelo. Between the two, Alvarez is more technically skilled and looks like he has better ring IQ.I think Jacobs knows that he can’t win if he tries to box with Canelo.

Who Wins?

I don’t see this fight ending early. If later, bookmakers create a prop bet on how this fight ends, it might be best to bet on this fight going the distance. I don’t think Jacobs can knock out Alvarez if he can’t catch him clean. But neither do I think that Canelo has the punching power to topple the Miracle Man. Canelo’s body punching may slow Jacobs down but I don’t think it will be enough to get a knockout.

This is how I think it will play out. Canelo Alvarez will surprise Jacobs by taking the fight to him. Jacobs is going to try to keep Alvarez off him with his length and strength. Jacobs will also try to use that jab to set up a big right hand. Alvarez will use pressure and body punching to slow Jacobs down. I think it will be close early but I have Canelo pulling away in the title rounds. The Mexican will try to go for a stoppage/ But Jacobs will be stubborn and put up a fight. In the end, Canelo’s boxing skills and volume punching are going to spell the difference.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez by decision.

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