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The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angles start a three-game divisional series on Tuesday, July 28, 2020. Game time is at 9:40 PM EDT at Angels Stadium in Anaheim, California.
As of Monday morning, both clubs sit at 1-2 in the American League West team standings. Seattle exploded offensively to upset the Houston Astros 7-6 on Sunday. That win came after the Astros pummeled the Mariners 15-4 in two lopsided wins. On the other hand, the Angels also lost their series to the Oakland A’s. Los Angeles’ pitching struggled in that series, giving up 6.5 runs in their two losses.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners only have five winning seasons in the last 15 years and the last time this team made the playoffs was in 2001. This abbreviated season marks year two of Seattle’s rebuild and after getting blown out in their first two games, they attained a moral win by snapping a 15-game losing run against the Houston Astros. Kyle Lewis punched in the tie-breaking run in the 8th inning to give Seattle the 7-6 win on Sunday.
Justus Sheffield will open on top of the mound for the Mariners. This is Sheffield’s first season as part of a starting rotation. He was acquired from the Yankees’ farm system where he spent most of 2019 as a mid-relief pitcher. Last season, the 24-year old left-hander started in a total of 8 games and allowed 22 runs on 44 hits with 22 errors, 18 walks, and 37 strikeouts. He posted an ERA of 5.50 and a WHIP of 1.72.
Kyle Seager leads Seattle in the early goings with a batting average of .364 and an OBP of .462. Kyle Lewis has already produced two home runs and four RBIs to start the year. Seager and Shed Long Jr. each have two RBIs as well while Lewis and Seager lead the team with four hits each.
The Mariners have scored a total of 11 runs in three games and they have posted a team batting average of .238, an OBP of .313, and a slugging percentage of .436. The Seattle pitching staff has posted an ERA of 7.20 with a WHIP of 1.64 and a BAA of .290 in three games played so far this season.
Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout drilled a three-run home run in the third and had a sacrifice fly in the fifth while David Fletcher had four hits. But despite a big day from their offense, the Los Angeles Angels could not capitalize. Starting pitcher Shohei Otani didn’t record a single out in his highly-awaited return as he was pulled out after allowing the first six batters to reach base as the A’s beat the Angels 6-4 on Sunday.
Patrick Sandoval gets the chance to open the series for the Angels. The 23-year old left-hander appeared in a total of 10 games last season with 9 starts. He posted a record of 0-5 with an ERA of 5.03 and a WHIP of 1.37. Sandoval pitched in a total of 39.1 innings and allowed 22 runs on 35 hits with 6 home runs and 19 walks while striking out 42 hitters.
David Fletcher is currently batting at .545 and has an OBP of .538 and a slugging percentage of .636. He has recorded six hits and has three RBIs to start the season. Mike Trout has one home run while batting in three runs and Justin Upton has one homer with one RBI.
Los Angeles has scored a total of 11 runs so far this season and they have a team batting average of .214, an OBP of .265, and a slugging percentage of .330. The Angels’ pitching staff has an ERA of 4.44 with a WHIP of 1.25, and a BAA of .215 in their first three assignments of the shortened season.
Who Wins?
Seattle is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played. The Mariners are 1-4 SU in their last five games played on the road, and 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against the American League. The LA Angels are 1-6 SU in their last seven games played. Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in their last five games played at home and 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against the American League. Head to head, the Angels are 5-1 SU in their last six games played against the Mariners.
I’m not expecting a pitching duel here as these are two are relatively inexperienced starters. However, I like Sheffield more because he played well towards the end of last season, winning his last four starts and giving up only a total of 12 runs in his last five starts. The Angels have struggled offensively so far and so have the Mariners. However, Seattle hit the ball well in their last two games against the Astros and I think that will be the difference here.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners (+166)
Other Bets to Make
Seattle is 1-2 ATS in their three games played so far this season and 1-2 ATS on the road. Los Angeles is 1-3 ATS in four games to start the season and they have yet to play a game at home.
Mariners
+1.5 (-120)
Angels
-1.5 (+100)
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/28/2020
There hasn’t been a close game between these two teams and three runs are the lowest winning margin in any of their last 10 head to head meetings. I’m picking Seattle’s better team hitting here so I’ll take them anyway at +1.5.
Prediction: Mariners +1.5 (-120)
The over is 2-0-1 in the Mariners’ three games played this season. The total has gone over in five out of their last six games played in July. The total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by the Angels. The over is 4-2 in Los Angeles’ last six games played against an opponent from the American League West division. Head to head, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. The Mariners and Angles have also played to the over in four out of their last five games played in California.
Over 9.5
+100
Under 9.5
-120
Odds from BetOnline as of 07/28/2020
Both the Mariners and Angels have started the season with pitching problems so that leaves a good opportunity for both teams to score plenty of runs here. Los Angeles has given up 17 runs in four games and although they have scored only 11 runs so far this season, Seattle has conceded at least six runs in each of their first three games of the season. I like these teams to combine for at least 10 runs in this game.
Prediction: Over 9.5 (+100)
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