Serie A Betting for Match Day 26 – Previews and Picks

It was another fascinating week in Italian soccer as match day 25 served up some thrashings, last minute winners and a whole host of goals to enjoy.

Leaders Juventus looked poor but just about got past Bologna, while Napoli demolished Parma 4-0 on the road. The game of the weekend was probably the 3-3 draw between Fiorentina and Inter however, with the hosts scoring a very controversial injury time penalty. The referee in question has now been banned by the league from officiating any games for three rounds.

Elsewhere Edin Dzeko grabbed a last minute winner to keep up Roma’s dreams of Champions League qualification – but things are not looking so bright for Bologna and Frosinone at the bottom of the table as they both lost again.

We are now looking forward to match day 26 – which begins with Inter travelling to Sardinia to take on Cagliari on Friday night. I’m going to once again take a look at the weekend’s fixtures from a betting perspective and have chosen the top of the table clash between Napoli and Juventus as my game of the week.

Featured Game – Napoli vs Juventus

The scudetto is probably now unrealistic for Napoli but they will be confident of keeping their unbeaten home record going against leaders Juventus. Here are the latest game odds courtesy of Betway.

Napoli has just about conceded the title to Juventus but will want to prove a point by not giving up three points at home to the champions. A convincing thrashing of Parma – and a successfully navigated Europa League tie against FC Zurich – will have regulars at the San Paolo believing that Napoli can at least close the gap at the top.

Juventus was disappointing in their Champions League tie against Atletico Madrid and was less than convincing against relegation threatened Bologna last weekend. But a 13 points lead at the top of Serie A tells its own story and it is a certainty that Juve will win their eighth successive title.

But before I make my pick and predictions I’m going to take a closer look at both teams.

Napoli

Napoli had actually gone into its match at Parma having not scored for two games but even without the suspended Lorenzo Insigne it had no trouble dispensing with the challenge of one of last season’s promoted clubs.

Poland striker Arkadiusz Milik scored two to help Napoli run out 4-0 winners in Parma and although much of their play was on the counter attack the Partenopei never looked in trouble and now seem to have got their recent habit of 0-0 draws out of their system.

With Juventus so far out in front at the top of Serie A there is little to play for but pride for the home side – but that is when Napoli is at its absolute best so this could be a really passionate affair.

Juventus

With the Champions League the prize that the Turin club wants more than any other, it is as though Serie A has become something of an afterthought – an irritation that needs to be addressed without too much effort.

The 1-0 victory in Bologna was far from impressive and if Juventus was saving itself for the Atletico Madrid tie in midweek, its plans spectacularly backfired. There is a slight break until the second leg in the middle of March and Juventus needs to get its mind back on the league – even if it is a foregone conclusion.

Betting Pick and Prediction

Napoli seems to have regained form just in time for the visit of Juventus and it feels to me as though it is the only club out of the two taking Serie A seriously at the moment.

The perennial champions are still to lose in the league this season however so this game is far from a definite home win. Napoli are unbeaten at home as well so this promises to be a must see game.

The price for a home win is not as attractive as I would have hoped given Juventus’ domination of the Italian game over the past few years but 3.30 for a draw looks interesting. I think although passion will be high, the goal count will be fairly low, so a 1-1 draw may well be the final outcome. With a draw and both teams to score priced at 4.33 by Betway I think that is where the value really lies.

My Pick: The Draw and Both Teams to Score 4.33

Place Your Bet Here

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Predictions for the Week’s Other Serie A Games

Here is how I think the rest of the weekend’s Serie A games will shape up.

Cagliari v Inter

Inter sit in third place in Serie A – but a long way off the top two – and have confounded my expectations to completely implode after the recent off field issues surrounding former club captain Mauro Icardi. The Nerazzurri were unlucky last week to come away from Florence with just a point and it will be wary of letting their city rivals get any closer in the table.

Cagliari has coasted at mid table for the majority of the season and although it has won just once in its last seven Serie A games it still sits in 14th position. A few more defeats could see the Sardinian club dragged into a relegation fight though.

I can’t see past an Inter victory here, especially taking into consideration its recent form, but odds of 1.77 are too short for any real betting interest.

Place Your Bet Here

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Empoli vs Parma

Although Empoli has only won once since its four game unbeaten streak in November and December, the home win against Sassuolo in week 24 will have given the club a much needed lift – and it was unfortunate that it came up against a resurgent Milan side last weekend.

Parma finds itself in more immediate trouble in my opinion. Last week’s crushing defeat at home to Napoli followed the loss to Cagliari and it is possibly complacency that has allowed the club to take its foot off the gas.

Empoli has scored more than Parma this season even though it finds itself lower in the table and I can see them getting three much needed points at the Stadio Carlo Castellani on Saturday.

Place Your Bet Here

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Milan vs Sassuolo

Anyone who has read my Serie A previews and picks over the last few weeks will already know that I really like the look of this Milan side at the moment. The addition of Paqueta and Piatek has turned the club into real Champions League qualification contenders – and the form side in Italy.

Sassuolo continue to overachieve in the league but has not looked as impressive as in previous seasons, not winning away from home since December – and only once at all since then.

Milan’s form has made the bookmakers shorten their odds for a home win however so odds of 1.45 will only bring in very modest returns.

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Lazio vs Roma

It is only the fact that Napoli is hosting Juventus that I didn’t make the Derby della Capitale my game of the week. Always a lively game – to say the least – Lazio will want to put an end to some poor form and take all three points in what is its ‘home’ fixture. Lazio also has the Coppa Italia semi final first leg against Milan on Tuesday so it looks like being a busy week.

Roma is going into the game with its bitter rivals full of confidence after its late winner at Frosinone last weekend. That’s three wins in a row for Eusebio Di Francesco’s side who are also unbeaten in the league since the defeat away at Juventus in December.

But derbies being derbies the real value is in the draw as I feel Lazio will raise its game to ensure that Roma leave the Stadio Olimpico the more disappointed side.

Place Your Bet Here

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Torino vs Chievo

Torino has quietly positioned itself into Europa League contention in the last few weeks. Level on points with seventh placed Atalanta and unbeaten in its last five games, it is one of the form sides in Serie A.

Walter Mazzarri’s side face two more relegation battlers after Chievo – before a trip to Florence in a few weeks time – and could well climb the table with a string of victories.

Chievo, on the other hand, look doomed. Already 11 points from safety, the Verona club has won one game this season and only drawn five of their games away from home. Any possible revival will not begin in Turin on Sunday but the odds of a home win are not really attractive enough for a wager.

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Genoa vs Frosinone

Genoa is on possibly its finest run of results of the season, having not lost in the league for five games. Three of those were draws against Sassuolo, Bologna and Chievo however so I’m not sure too much should be read into that.

Frosinone has been in the bottom three for the majority of the season and has the worst defensive record in the division. But two wins out of its last five – both away at Bologna and Sampdoria – makes me think that it might have a chance of getting something from this game.

An away win is probably being too hopeful for the club from the Lazio region but a price of 3.60 for a draw looks like good value to me.

Place Your Bet Here

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SPAL vs Sampdoria

SPAL are not safe from a relegation battle yet and just one win since mid October should be a real worry for head coach Leonardo Semplici. One of the smallest clubs in Serie A, SPAL face Inter and Roma over the next few weeks and could do with three points from this one.

Sampdoria has been infuriatingly inconsistent since the turn of the year and have tended to leave their best form for their home games. Samp hasn’t won on the road since they beat Empoli before Christmas and I can’t see them getting three points here either.

Although SPAL is hardly in a rich vein of form I think they will win and odds of 2.70 are just about right for a bet.

Place Your Bet Here

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Udinese vs Bologna

Udinese didn’t play last week as its game with Lazio was postponed – but will fancy its chances at home against a Bologna side in real danger of dropping into Serie B for the first time since 2014. The home side will have been disappointed that it missed out last week, as its recent form has been impressive.

Bologna has only won once away from home this season – a shock victory over Inter at the start of February – and desperately need three points from its trip to Udine. But Bologna has only scored more than one goal in a match once since the end of October and is not looking in good shape.

Betway has this game being fairly even but the odds for a home win are the only ones that interest me.

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Atalanta vs Fiorentina

Although Atalanta has looked very good at home this season the limitations of its squad compared to wealthier rivals is starting to show and the Bergamo club has now allowed Roma, Torino, Lazio and Fiorentina into the battle for European qualification. The short odds for a home win are understandable but I think the toils of the season are starting to show.

Spirits are high in Florence as Fiorentina has gone seven games without defeat and has been able to keep in touch with the chasing pack in Serie A. With not much difference in price between a draw and an away win I think a point apiece is the more likely outcome.

Place Your Bet Here

Final Words

This looks like a really interesting week in Serie A with some big games at both ends of the table.

Results in a number of key fixtures could offer some psychological boosts to a number of clubs as we move towards the final third of the season

As ever, let me know what you think of my predictions and picks – and enjoy the games.