Serie A Betting for Match Day 38 – Previews and Picks

It is the final day of the season and there is still much to be decided in Italy’s Serie A. The race for the final two Champions League spots continues as Atalanta, Inter, Milan and Roma all have a chance of making it into Europe’s biggest club competition.

There is a similar tension at the bottom of the table as Empoli’s great escape attempt continues – with the Azzurri now lying outside the bottom three for the first time in months and in with a great chance of staying up. Genoa and Fiorentina are the other two clubs facing the prospect of dropping down to Serie B and the weekend’s fixtures are sure to be full of drama.

Lazio beat Atalanta in the Coppa Italia cup final in the week to confirm its participation in the Europa League next season – but there is obviously a lot to play for in a number of games this weekend.

So, we are now looking forward to match day 38 with the games taking place over two days this week – with all the ones that still affect the final placings on Sunday evening. Once again I’m going to take a look at the fixtures from a betting perspective. I’ve chosen Inter vs Empoli as my featured game of the week.

Featured Game – Inter vs Empoli

Inter was awful against Napoli last weekend and gave itself a job to do on the final day of the season. Empoli now know that it has its destiny in its own hand so this has all the makings of a classic.

Here are the latest game odds courtesy of Betway.

Bookmakers are not known to be a romantic lot and there is little in these odds that suggests that Betway have joined the bandwagon believing that Empoli can get the points it needs to miraculously stay up. Inter need the win just as much though – so the unattractive odds for a home win are completely understandable.

Before I make my pick and predictions I’m going to take a closer look at both teams.

Inter

Losing in the Stadio San Paolo is nothing to be embarrassed about – but it was the manner of Inter’s defeat to Napoli that will have troubled head coach Luciano Spalletti. For a team still needing points to make the Champions League, Inter was toothless and was probably lucky only to lose 4-1.

Spalletti is soon to be exiting the San Siro but he will want to bow out on a high. A top four finish should be seen as a major achievement given Inter’s propensity to shoot itself in the foot – and the Icardi saga that dragged on for much of the season.

Empoli

Empoli has now won its last three games – including last week’s stunning 4-1 rout of a Torino side that were chasing European qualification itself. There has been a newly found belief at the Stadio Carlo Castellani and now Aurelio Andreazzoli’s men have survival in their grasp.

A trip to the San Siro is not an easy ask however – and Inter can surely not play as bad as it did last week again. There will be fans nervously checking the score line in the Fiorentina vs Genoa game – but it is incredible that Empoli still have a chance at all given its form for the majority of the season.

Betting Pick and Prediction

Inter currently sit in fourth position and knows that if it wins this game then nothing any of its rivals can do can take Champions League qualification away from the Milan club. It has not always been pretty this season for the Nerazzurri but this team should be capable of getting the three points it needs.

Empoli’s dream could be over. But even a defeat against Inter would not necessarily mean that the club would be relegated and that is a feat in itself. I feel Empoli will lose but all eyes will be on the Genoa game.

My Pick: Inter to Win 1.40

Place Your Bet Here

Here is how I think the rest of the weekend’s Serie A games will shape up.

Frosinone vs Chievo

This game brings together two sides that already know their fate this season. Both Chievo and Frosinone have been relegated for a few weeks now and this match up does not suggest a display of top talent. Frosinone has been chasing the division for the majority of the season and will relish the chance to at least bow out with a victory.

Chievo finishes its 11th successive top flight season in which it has been firmly rooted to the bottom of the table since the second week of the campaign. A few spirited performances in the last month has not disguised the fact that the Flying Donkeys are not to the standard of Serie A any more and I feel Serie B will be a struggle as well next season.

A game that has no bearing on positions will probably go the way of the home side – but there are not many that will miss these two from Serie A.

Bologna vs Napoli

Bologna played out a 3-3 thriller against Lazio on Monday that finally secured its top flight status for next year but in reality Sinisa Mihajlovic’s stewardship since his appointment at the end of January has been the reason behind the Rossoblu’s success. With the pressure off, the Bologna team may not be quite as hard pressing as usual.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side seemingly stopped playing once it virtually conceded the title to Juventus in its home defeat to the Bianconeri at the start of March – but recent results have been far more impressive. The 4-1 demolition of Inter was particularly good to watch and there must be some hope for a real crack at the title next season.

Napoli has finished the season strongly and although Bologna will be happy it is staying up there should be one more defeat for the home side to endure here.

Place Your Bet Here

Torino vs Lazio

Up until a few weeks ago it looked like Torino was the more likely from these two sides to qualify for Europe – but Lazio’s Coppa Italia triumph and a badly timed slump has turned that on its head. The Granata has looked very good this season however and if it can keep hold of Andrea Belotti there is more than a chance to reach the top six next season.

Lazio fully deserved its cup final victory over Atalanta in midweek and the decision to seemingly concentrate on that competition rather than the league has paid off for Simone Inzaghi. The Biancocelesti has only won one of its last four Serie A games but will not care about another defeat in Turin.

It is a shame that Torino will not be appearing in European competition for the first time since 2015, considering how well it has played for the last few months especially. But a home win here will have to compensate for that.

Place Your Bet Here

Sampdoria vs Juventus

Another game without much meaning in Genoa – but Fabio Quagliarella will want to finish off a fine season with at least one more goal to ensure that he takes the top goal scorer prize. It has been a wonderful campaign for the veteran striker and it would not be a surprise if he does grab another against the champions.

Juventus announced this week that head coach Massimilliano Allegri would be leaving the club at the end of the season. He has overseen an unprecedented run of success in Serie A and will be missed in Turin next season. But Juventus is already looking forward to next season. The purchase of Aaron Ramsey is a done deal and there are bound to be more arrivals over the next few months.

Juventus has taken it easy since winning the title – and arguably a few weeks before that – and I can see this ending in a draw courtesy of a Quagliarella goal for the home side.

Place Your Bet Here

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Atalanta will finish third if it beats Sassuolo, which is an incredible achievement for coach Gian Piero Gasperini and the Bergamo club. But Champions League qualification is not guaranteed yet so expect the Oribici to go all out for the win here.

Sassuolo will be playing its final away game of the season at its own Mapei Stadium thanks to refurbishment work being carried out at Atalanta’s Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia. But that ‘home’ advantage should not make too much difference in a game that means little to the Neraverdi.

Atalanta has been wonderful to watch this season and fully deserve a Champions League spot – and a win here should be the outcome.

Place Your Bet Here

Cagliari vs Udinese

Cagliari has depended on its home form to stay up this season – with only two victories coming away from the Sardegna Arena. A good couple of months from the middle of February, in which the Rossoblu won six out of ten games, ensured the club’s survival and the pressure has been off for the last few weeks.

Udinese looked like it was going to be in trouble a few match days ago but will stay up largely to its head to head record against its relegation rivals. Igor Tudor has done just about enough as head coach to make sure that the Zebrette didn’t go down and last weekend’s 3-2 victory over SPAL was vital for the club.

Udinese will want to create some daylight between itself and the bottom three so a draw in Sardinia could be the result here.

Place Your Bet Here

Fiorentina vs Genoa

Fiorentina fans are not happy with the club for a number of reasons – but a woeful run of form since the start of the year has been one of the major ones. An incredible 16 draws has not helped matters and the Viola could actually be relegated if results do not go its way this weekend. It seems unlikely to happen but the Florence side has not looked good for a while now.

Genoa had been looking down on Empoli for the last few weeks, praying that its relegation rivals would stop picking up vital points as the season drew to a close. Now Cesare Prandelli’s team need to hope that Inter can help it in a bid to usurp Empoli at the last. One win in 13 has not helped the Rossoblu and it will be a tense game in Florence.

Genoa is lucky that it is coming up against a side that has been even worse than itself over the past few months. A draw would help both sides here – and probably keep them in the top flight – so that could well be the way it goes.

Place Your Bet Here

Roma vs Parma

Roma has managed to probably miss out on Champions League soccer next season by ending the season in disarray and drawing with sides such as Sassuolo, Genoa and Fiorentina. Daniele De Rossi announced that he is leaving the club due to not being offered a new contract and it seems as though there needs to be an overhaul behind the scenes if things are to be better next season.

Parma secured its Serie A status for next season with a 1-0 win at home to Fiorentina last weekend and given the troubled recent history of the club this campaign can be regarded as a huge success. Don’t expect there to be too much attacking force from the visitors in this one.

Roma desperately need the win and Parma’s season is over. This has a home win written all over it – although it will probably not be enough for the Giallorossi.

Place Your Bet Here

SPAL vs Milan

SPAL is another club that has been just about safe for quite a while now and although Leonardo Semplici’s side will want to finish the season on a high, it will also know that three points are not necessary from this last game of the campaign.

Milan, on the other hand, need the victory to have any chance of Champions League qualification. Gennaro Gattuso’s days as head coach seem to be running out and although the Europa League is waiting for the Rossoneri next season that will not be considered enough by the owners.

SPAL has performed heroically this season to survive another season but a Milan victory is on the cards here.

Place Your Bet Here

Final Words

Juventus may have strolled to another scudetto but this season in Italy has been a rollercoaster of emotions for many of the clubs and their fans.

With so much still be decided going into the final match day, Italian soccer has been a treat to follow this campaign and there is sure to be a lot of heartbreak – as well as elation – evident on Sunday evening.

Enjoy the games and good luck with your betting.